Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General & CEO, IIASA. Professor of Earth System Science, Wageningen, Netherlands

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1 Benefits of Systems Science Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat Director General & CEO, IIASA Professor of Earth System Science, Wageningen, Netherlands

2 THE EARLY 1970s Sources: nuclearweaponarchive.org, The Guardian

3 Sources: US Department of Interior, IIASA

4 A GLOBAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE Established as a scientific bridge between East and West (excellent science & science diplomacy) After Cold War ended focused on multiple dimensions of global change Now embarked on the new research strategy for the next decade

5 21 NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS International, independent, interdisciplinary Research on major global problems: excellent science & science diplomacy Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis

6 IIASA: TRULY INTERNATIONAL ~ 300 researchers in house include researcher scholars, research assistants, postdoctoral research scholars, and young scientists from more than 50 countries ~25% of IIASA alumni (3,475 people worldwide) remain actively involved in IIASA research Active and formalized collaboration with over 300 institutions worldwide 900 visitors (science & science diplomacy) coming to IIASA and 180 international meetings hosted in 2012 ~2050 researchers from some 65 countries involved in IIASA s research network in

7 INTERDISCIPLINARY 35% Natural Scientists & Engineers 28% Social Scientists 37% Mathematicians and others

8 EXAMPLES OF EARLY RESEARCH

9 MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES: INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

10 IIASA S SYSTEMS SCIENCE APPROACH

11 RESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Integrated Interdisciplinary International Independent Solution-oriented Long term Trade offs = Systems Analysis

12 ADVANCED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS PAST SUCCESSES Dynamic Systems Multi-criteria decision analysis Adaptive dynamics theory Game theory Agent-based modeling Stochastic optimization NEW RESEARCH Advances in Modeling Dynamic Systems Extreme events, Systemic Risks and Robust Solutions Integrated Modeling and Decision Support Advanced Systems Analysis Forum

13 IIASA helps to put the puzzle together

14 INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

15 2030 Energy Goals Universal Access to Modern Energy Double Energy Efficiency Improvement Double Renewable Share in Final Energy Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

16 ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE: BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES RAINS helps cut sulfur dioxide MESSAGE has helped over 80 countries with energy planning 2010

17 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Energy and Climate Change Highly Published

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19 Global Primary Energy EJ Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip DampfmaschineMotor Elektrischer Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass

20 Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~55% renewables by 2030 EJ Nuclear phase-out (policy) Oil phase-out (necessary) Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

21 Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030 ~30% renewables by 2030 Limited Intermittent REN EJ Oil phase-out (necessary) Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Renewables Nuclear Gas 200 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

22 Global Primary Energy Sub-Saharan Africa Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ ~50% renewables by 2030 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

23 Global Primary Energy China Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ ~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 2012

24 Global Primary Energy Europe Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass EJ ~30% renewables by Source: Riahi et al, 2012

25 Final Energy Transformations 100% 80% 60% 40% Fossils (Gas, Oil & Coal) Other Low Carbon (Nuclear, Fossil-CCS) 20% 0% Renewables (Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Bioenergy)

26 Towards a more Sustainable Future Universal access is a pre-condition for overcoming poverty and feasible if all stake-holders work together. Energy transformation will bring multiple co-benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge but achievable with right and sustained policies

27 SYNERGIES OF MULTIPLE ENERGY OBJECTIVES ES ES ES ES CC Climate Change PH Pollution & Health ES Energy Security 1.2% CC PH CC PH CC PH CC PH Total Global Policy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level At least one Integrated Climate-Pollution- objective fulfilled at Intermediate Security level Policies 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Pollution Only Climate Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Policy Prioritization Framework At least one Single minded approaches objective fulfilled at for multiple Weak level challenges All Three Objectives

28 GAINS identified 16 key air quality measures that, together with CO 2 mitigation, increase chances to stay below the 2º target Global temperature Reference Scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 CO 2 Measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009 Near-term Measures IIASA set of 16 measures for CH 4 and black carbon Source: Shindell et al., Science (2012), 335/6065: CO 2 + Near-term Measures These 16 measures are win (for air quality), win (for near-term climate change) win (for economic development)

29 Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% Total Global Polic cy Costs ( ) 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point 0.2% 0.0% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

30 Global Energy Assessment

31 INEXTRICABLY LINKED Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

32 FOOD & WATER: BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES Database of Russian forest and land resources Shrinking Fish 2004

33 System: Water Climate Poverty Equity Nexus 160% Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean 140% 120% 100% 80% 60%

34 R eal G D P g ro w th (% ) ll (M eter) rainfall affects growth. the case of Zimbabwe V ariab ility in R ain fa -5.0 Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Years Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

35 Water Climate -Poverty Equity -Nexus Infrastructure gap in water storage Water storage per person (m3) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,729 6,150 4,000 3,000 2,486 3,255 2,000 1, Ethiopia 746 South Africa 1,287 1,406 Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America

36 Country Additional Storage needed per person (m 3 ) The cost of water security Storage investments required per person (US$) Storage Investments Required (US$ Billion) Period needed at 5% current GDP investment per year (no pop. inc.) (Years) Lesotho Namibia Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Burkina Faso Senegal Algeria Morocco

37 Water Futures and Solutions Initiative

38 Human Population and the Role of Education Energy & Climate Change Food & Water Poverty & Equity

39 Population Dynamics by Age, Sex and Level of Education Inter-generational equity versus intra-generational equity. Does the future well-being depend on current inequality? At the core of IIASA s equity and poverty theme. The demographic foundations of social and economic change

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47 CEN FT 10 9 CER 10 9 GET Population in Billions Population in Billions Population in Billions Years pop014 Years No_Educ Primary Years Secondary Years Tertiary Population in Billions 2 1 0

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49 Education and Deaths from Natural Disaster All countries available Countries with more than 30 disasters Log (Total Deaths/Initial ial Population) Haiti Dom. Rep. Cuba Female Sec+ Edu Female Sec+ Edu Source: Total number of deaths ( ) is from the Emergency Events Database (EM- DAT) at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).

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51 The UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Washington Post 30 March 2005

52 Systems Science and Effective Science to Policy Interface What is needed in order to get out of our silos? and To fully benefit from Systems Approaches?

53 VISION.. If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65) Photo: David McGrath

54 Positive Narratives...global transformation challenges presents opportunities for social,economic and bussines innovations rather than merely a threat...

55 ACADEMIC TRAINING AND CAPACITY BUILDING New paradigms towards trans-and inter-disciplinarity New curricula New funding architecture Revised academic carrier incentives

56 Political, Societal and Economic Governance Trans-sectoral (nexus) policies Trans- sectoral budgeting & investments Long term policies & investments Re-definition of governmental subsidies Revival of trans-boundary regional cooperation NEW PARTNERSHIPS

57 New Partnerships New Global Think Tank announced by IIASA and European Alpbach Forum in Sept 2013 To initiate a new dialogue and partnership between topacademia, governments, businesses and civil society for an integrated systematic approach to fair globalization 57

58 Thank you and welcome soon at IIASA!