Outlook on Solar Energy

Transcription

1 Rio 6 World Climate & Energy Event Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 17th and 18th of November, 2006 Outlook on Solar Energy Hansjörg Gabler Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung (ZSW) Baden-Württemberg

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3 International Space Station ISS, 1. Ausbaustufe: 62 kw (+ 16 kw) Si-Zellen, η = 14,5 % Quelle: Photon 1/2001

4 Silk-Road-Genesis Photo: Tokyn Construction Co., Ltd. nach: Photon 1,

5 Ort: Bell Laboratories, Murrey Hills, New Jersey, USA 1954: Bell Telephone Laboratories make the first usable solar cell from crystalline silicon, efficiency is 6 % Quelle: The Silicon Solar Cell Turns 50, John Perlin, NREL Report No. BR

6 1900 Global Solar Cell Production Various Studies New installed capacity per year MWp Daten 1983 bis 2000: Quelle Räuber, PSE Daten 2001 bis 2002: Strategies Unlimited / P. Maycock (PV Systems Inc.) Daten 2003 bis 2005: Photon International 3/

7 Industrial Applications: Off Grid Supply of remote technical installations for telecommunication, road signalling, navigational aids on coasts and waterways, data acquisition in oilfields... Quelle: Siemens -7-

8 Consumer Applications Quelle: Audi AG Photovoltaic electricity supply for: watches, pocket calculators, PV roofs for cars to operate ventilation at stand still, camping and other leisure applications

9 Rural Electrification with Photovoltaics: Kenya Mr. James Wafula, PV system installer, and Mr. Japhet Diru, house-owner, in front of a newly electrified home at Kitale, Kenya -9-

10 -10- Rural Electrification: China

11 -11- China: Qinghai Province

12 Grid Connected PV Power: Navarra, Spain. Total power 1.2 MW, 280 tracker units with BP-Saturn modules, 120 trackers with modules from other suppliers. Tracking along azimuth axis, module tilt 45, commissioning Source: EU PV Project Synopsis,

13 Global Photovoltaic Market (2005) Market volume PV modules (power) 1,800 MW Price per Watt (system) 5.0 Market volume PV systems (turnover) 9,000 Mio. Growth of market annually more than 40 % Price reduction - 5 %/year Market volume PV industry today is equal to market volume of semiconductor industry in the late 1970-ies -13-

14 Electricity from solar (PV) cells is today not competitive with coal / oil / nuclear power, but: We see a rapid (supersonic) growth of the PV industry Why? -14-

15 PV has become a symbol for an inexhaustible, clean and sustainable energy for the future Cost reductions are to be expected for the future. This will open a virtually infinite energy resource for grid connected electricity supply Today, off-grid electricity markets are developing which promise large markets with a stable growth for a large high technology industry -15-

16 Governments in Japan in Germany in some of the states of the USA in almost all the states of the European Union have taken measures to help the PV industry to grow. -16-

17 Support of Renewable Energies is an important part of the German Energy Policy in view of the threats to society through global warming finite resources (+ increasing consumption = rising prices) (political) insecurity of supply, high volatility of prices continued use of nuclear energy -17-

18 Policy measures in Germany support production of renewable energy technologies and consumption of energy from renewable sources. Research and Technology Development (66 Mio Euro in 2004 from the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conversation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), 1/3 of the total sum is for photovoltaics) The Renewable Energy Law (EEG, April 2004) (Regulation of tariffs for electricity produced from renewable resources: wind, small hydropower, biomass, photovoltaics) -18-

19 The German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) Regulations for electricity from solar (photovoltaic) cells: Electric power utilities must pay Euro/kWh (2006) for electricity from photovoltaic generators, which is fed into the electricity grid (feed in tariff). The contracts between producers and utilities run for 20 years The feed in tariff for new contracts is reduced every year by 5 % (0.492 /kwh in 2007, /kwh in 2008 etc.) No tax money is spent, the electricity utilities redistribute the extra costs to all other electricity consumers. -19-

20 Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany ,600 1, ,000 1,400 1,200 1,000 [GWh] 600 Electricity supply Installed capacity [MWp] Source: BMU publication "Renew able energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006

21 Market for Photovoltaic Technology in Germany (2005) New installations 600 MW Increase from % Turnover of PV industry in Germany 3,000 Mio Euro Jobs in industry and crafts 30,000 (Germany has taken the lead from Japan as the largest domestic PV market) -21-

22 PV-generator on the roof of a family house (Sperberslohe-Wendelstein, 4.0 kw P, 2001) Source: Photon 3/

23 PV-generator on farm-building roofs (Peiting-Hausen, 77 kw P, 2003) Source: Sputnik Engineering AG / Photon 10/

24 The PV park Buttenwiesen came online in Sept the first project by company GP Solarpark. With 1 MW installed power using amorphous silicon modules from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, it s the world s largest ground-mounted thin-film plant. Source: Phönix SonnenStrom AG -24-

25 Contribution of renewable energy sources to electricity generation in Germany ,000 60,000 50,000 Hydropower Wind energy Biomass Photovoltaics [GWh] 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: BMU publication "Renewable energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006; Data on biomass includes biogenic share of waste of 50%; electricity from geothermal energy is not presented due to the low volumes of electricity

26 Number of wind energy installations and installed capacity in Germany ,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 [No. of installations] 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Installations Installed capacity ,211 1,797 2,617 3,655 4,326 5,193 6,205 7,879 9,359 11,438 13,759 15,387 16,543 17, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 [MW] Sources: Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI); BMU publication "Renewable Energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006

27 Wind park in inland Germany Source: Bundesverband Windenergie e. V

28 Electric energy produced by wind turbines in selected European countries 70 [TWh] Austria Italy United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Spain Germany Other EU countries 1) Since 2004 including generation in the new EU Member States 1) Generation < 1.5 TWh/a in each case Sources: Eurostat [3], Download ; Observ ER [46] -28-

29 Renewable Energies in Germany, Targets Set by Government Share of renewables Situation: Targets: Electricity 6.3 % 10.2 % 12.5 % 20 % Heating and process heat 3.9 % 5.3 % Fuel for transport 0.4 % 3.6 % 5.75 % Primary energy, total 2.6 % 4.6 % 10 % -29-

30 Wood and rape seed as sources of biomass Source: Renewable Energy World, July August

31 25,000 Contribution of renewable energy sources to fuel supply in Germany ,000 Vegetable oil Bioethanol 2,047 3,000 20,000 Vegetable oil [GWh] 15,000 Bioethanol Biodiesel 18,600 2,000 10,000 5, ,033 1,343 2,583 3,617 5,683 8,267 10, Source: BMU publication "Renew able energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May , ,

32 Near-surface geothermal energy 1.8% Structure of heat supply from renewable energy sources in Germany in 2005 Final energy for heat generation Total: 80.6 TWh Biogenic solid fuels, households 69.5% Deep geothermal energy 0.1% Solar thermal energy 3.7% Biogenic share of waste 4.4% Biogenic gaseous fuels 4.0% Biogenic liquid fuels 0.5% Biogenic solid fuels, industry 13.4% biogenic solid fuels, co-generation power installations and heating installations 2.5% Source: BMU publication "Renewable energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006;

33 Wood pellets, the modern solid fuel from wood residues Source:

34 Yes, green energy is a political issue in Germany but: there may be more reasons than that: rising market prices from fossil energies business opportunities and creation of new jobs -34-

35 Total turnover with renewable energy sources in Germany in 2005 Total: approx billion Biomass 6,250 m; 38.0 % Solar energy 4,250 m; 25.9 % Wind energy 4,500 m; 27.4 % Hydropower 1,170 m; 7.1 % Geothermal energy 270 m; 1.6 % Source: BMU publication "Renewable energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006

36 Employees in the renewable energy sources sector in Germany in 2004 Total: approx. 157,000 jobs Biomass 36 % Wind energy 41 % Solar energy 16 % Geothermal energy 1 % Hydropower 6 % In 2005 already 170,000 employees, figure set to rise. Sources: BMU publication "Renewable energy sources in figures - national and international development", Status: May 2006

37 The introduction of Renewable Energies is a successful job creation mechanism in Germany -37-

38 -38- Source: