Providing climate change scenarios for end-users,

Transcription

1 Providing climate change scenarios for end-users, Modus Operandi at Ouranos Diane Chaumont Ouranos In collaboration with Travis Logan and David Huard CMOS 2012 Congress, May 29 June 1 Session : Climate Services for vulnerable societies Montréal 1 Ouranos : Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change Structure of the Consortium CLIMATE SCIENCES 2 Main Themes 9 Programs Multiple projects IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Facilitate decisionmaking HYDRO- CLIMATIC ANALYSES Acquire & develop climate science knowledge CLIMATE SCENARIOS Process information Transfer to I&A NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT ENGERGY RESOURCES MARITIME ENVIRONMENT FORESTRY OPERATIONS WATER RESOURCES SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Health Transportation Infrastructure and safety Agriculture Economy and society Natural ecosystem Biodiversity Coordinate I&A science and needs 2 1

2 Climate Scenarios Ressources Human ressources : Multidisciplinarity Geographers, physicist, hydrologist, oceanographer, ecologist, GIS specialist Climate data bank Observations: from members (MDDEP, Environment Canada, HQ) and public domain Reanalysis Climate simulations (Ouranos CRCM runs, NARCCAP, CMIP2, CMIP3 and CMIP5) 3 Viewpoint of climate scenario development Making the users part of the process Accountability and reliability in the information transmitted Scientific standard without methodological nitpicking: Ensemble of climate projections (regional and global) Post-treatment t t t of climate model output t Climate scenario selection for specific needs Guides have been recently published (Knutti et al, 2010; Mote et al., 2011). 4 2

3 User needs vs climate scenario products Types of scenarios needs: Expertise Support Value-added Data* Applied R&D Interesting but optional (biophysical vulnerability mapping, preventive approach, recycling existing results ) Scanning GCM/RCM and synthesis charts (risk-scanning, issues with many uncertainties ) Medium complexity (to anchor with I&A approaches used: link to ecosystems mapping, spatial analogues, ) Complex but applicable (with detailed d analysis integrating ti into currently used tools : IDF, PMP, water management ) Complex with R&D challenges (connected R&D needed in both climatology and I&A: coastal erosion, soil condition, ) -- Chart developed in collaboration with I&A 5 *Data usually found on «scenario websites» are often not value-added w.r.t. the specific needs of a given user Scanning GCM/RCM and synthesis charts Projected change in Southern Québec (horizon 2050): 18 regional climate runs (Ouranos and NARCCAP) global climate runs Ouranos (2010), Savoir s adapter aux changements climatiques 6 3

4 Medium complexity for the management of natural protected area Developed for specific projects Many indices defined by the users Perspective on the observed natural variability a) b) a) Évolution de la moyenne régionale des températures annuelles d un ensemble de scénarios climatiques (n=71) et des observations. Fonction de distribution cumulative empirique (CDF) de la moyenne régionale des températures annuelles : valeurs observées (noir) et projetées 10 ième,50 ième,et90 ième percentiles (vert, bleu et rouge). Conditions futures projetées des températures moyennes annuelles (en C) pour l horizon 2050 et 2090, calculées à partir de l ensemble des scénarios climatiques. Changement relatif régional indiqué dans le coin supérieur gauche 7 Complex but applicable : Hydro-Québec experience Pilot study qualitative hydrograph change- Methodology definition 8 4

5 Pilot study First simulations (horizon 2050) 16 climate projections 2004 From Energy Ressources, IREQ/Ouranos 9 Complex but applicable : Hydro-Québec experience Incertainty map Application over the whole domain quantitative on an anual basis- Pilot study qualitative hydrograph change- Methodology definition % 10 5

6 Ensemble hydrologic simulations 36 climate projections Intensity / variability and coherence of the hydrological signal (horizon 2050) coherence 2007 From Energy Ressources, IREQ/Ouranos intensity variability 11 Complex but applicable : Hydro-Québec experience Low and High flow CMIP3 update + Multi-method approach Incertainty map Application over the whole domain quantitative on an anual basis- Pilot study qualitative hydrograph change- Methodology definition % 12 6

7 Spring High Flow Horizon climate projections Small increase in north 2010 From Energy Ressources, IREQ/Ouranos Small diminution in south 13 Complex but applicable : Hydro-Québec experience 2011 Selection of climate scenarios for I&A 2010 Low and High flow CMIP3 update + Multi-method approach Incertainty map Application over the whole domain quantitative on an anual basis- Pilot study qualitative hydrograph change- Methodology definition % 14 7

8 Complex but applicable : Hydro-Québec experience 2011 Selection of climate scenarios 2010 Low and High flow CMIP3 update + Multi-method approach Incertainty map Application over the whole domain quantitative on an anual basis- Pilot study qualitative hydrograph change- Methodology definition 15 Accountability and reliability : the climate scenarios fact sheets Dialogue and common language Ed End-users &Cli Climate Science Transparency and responsability in the information transfered Promoting a critical approach Minimizing risks of conflict Original idea : Ramón de Elía, Climate Analysis Group 16 8

9 Perspectives d avenir Fiabilité scientifique élevée à très élevée Établissement de mesures d adaptation concrètes OURANOS Fiabilité scientifique moyenne à élevée Fiabilité scientifique faible à moyenne Amélioration des outils Décisions à petite échelle Cas pilotes Détermination des enjeux Projets Études exploratoires Ministères HQ et universités Fiabilité scientifique de minimum à faible Recherche universitaire Air-terre-mer Processus-Observations Adapté de G. Beauchemin (2002) Compréhension théorique et fondamentale à la base de notre savoir climatique 17 Synthesis We are working in a users driven environment Communication and accountability in the climate information is of main importance, fact sheets have been developped We offer different products and diffuse them differently, in most of the cases they are projects specific The confidence in future climate scenarios is growing, adaptation measures can be taken with a higher confidence level 18 9

10 Thank you! Questions and Comments? contact : chaumont.diane@ouranos.ca 19 Updated results (CMIP3 IPCC- new scenarios) Variation of the intra-annual regime 90 climate projections (horizon 2050) Simulated hydrological regimes (actual and future) La Grande 2 Discharges (m 3/ s) Future conditions ( ) Acutal conditions ( ) 20 10

11 Updated results (CMIP3 IPCC- new scenarios) 90 climate projections (horizon 2050) Methods comparison 1% flows he mean annual inf Evolution of th Horizon % 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% Inter-scenario dispersion Del lta Method Dir rect Method Direct unbiased 21 Projected evolution of mean annual inflows (7 scenarios) Horizon to 20 % 0 to 19 % 0 to 20 % Quantitative results - 8 to 14 % - 8 to 13 %

12 Cluster analysis for the selection of climate scenarios for I&A Reducing the number of scenarios that needs to be used in I&A Insure an optimal coverage of the plausible change 2011 Figure from Marco Braun, Ouranos Detailled method in Casajus, Périé, Logan, Lambert, de Blois et Berteaux (submitted) 23 Medium complexity : Spatial analogues scenarios Request for spatial analogues scenarios in many sectors : agriculture for pest and water demand, biodiversity, etc Intuitive communication tool Pinpoint regions whose experience might provide adaptation strategies Evaluation of the methodology shows a more important effect of the climate projections used than the metric to define the spatial analogue. Combination of indices (GDD, total precipitation, aridity index) defined for each project Regions color-coded by the number of climate projections analog to SE Québec over Source : Bourdages,

13 Outline Climate scenarios ressources Main drivers of the development of climate scenarios User needs vs products An history of climate information use Medium complexity : Planning the energy demand in short and medium terms Adjustment of normals : Methodology and data Median of the 39 simulations Assume linear warming trend Determination of the optimal rupture point (~1971) Conclusion: mean annual warming of 0,3 C/decade Next steps : variability in extreme value Warming ( C / 10 years) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0,45 0,36 0,27 0,28 0,26 0,23 0,26 0,27 0,28 0,25 0,28 0,