Vulnerability related to critical functions/ components

Transcription

1 Vulnerability related to critical functions/ components RISK DSAM Workshop Stockholm SINTEF Energy Research SINTEF Energy Research 1

2 Outline Vulnerability and security of supply definitions Risk and vulnerability assessment using bow tie-model Monitoring vulnerability and security of supply Vulnerability in RISK DSAM SINTEF Energy Research 2

3 Vulnerability related to critical functions/ components Objective in RISK DSAM: Develop methods, which can be used to describe the society s vulnerability related to critical functions/components in the distribution sector Survey vulnerability indicators in use and describe state of the art Propose indicators to monitor the effect of maintenance and reinvestments. Describe data needed to estimate the indicators Models and methods to identify critical functions/ components. SINTEF Energy Research 3

4 Vulnerability and security of supply Definitions SINTEF Energy Research 4

5 Vulnerability a definition A characteristic of an element of the critical infrastructure's design, implementation, or operation that renders it susceptible to destruction or incapacitation by a threat Vulnerability is closely related to security of supply EPCIP Green Paper, COM(2005) 576 final SINTEF Energy Research 5

6 Security of electricity of supply - SoS Security of electricity supply means the ability of an electricity system to supply final customers with electricity (EU Directive) Energy availability Power capacity Reliability Power system failures SINTEF Energy Research 6

7 Factors influencing SoS and vulnerability Legislation, electricity market and monopoly regulation Operation, monitoring and control Standards, criteria, grid codes etc Asset management System security and integrity Labour force, competence, skills Structure, topology, technology Emergency preparedness, Crisis management Environment Terror, sabotage etc SINTEF Energy Research 7

8 Challenges and concerns related to vulnerabilities in the power system Climate changes increasing climatic stress Ageing assets Restructuring, outsourcing, workforce reductions Increasing ICT - and mutual dependencies Integration of distributed generation Terrorism and organised crime etc. SINTEF Energy Research 8

9 Risk and vulnerability assessment using bow tie model SINTEF Energy Research 9

10 Bow tie-model Causes Consequences Threats Unwanted event Vulnerabilities SINTEF Energy Research 10

11 Bow-tie with fault- and event tree Causes Consequences Fault tree Event tree Consequence 1 Threats Unwanted event Barrier 1 Resource1 Condition1 Y N Barrier 2 Resource 2 Condition 2 Y N Barrier 3 Y Resource 3 Condition 3 N Consequence 2 Consequence 3 Consequence 4 SINTEF Energy Research 11

12 Security of supply Unwanted events Causes Energy shortage Consequences Threats Power system failures Capacity shortage Vulnerabilities Three types of unwanted events Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability of the Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report A5962 SINTEF Energy Research 12

13 Unwanted events and Consequences Causes Energy shortage Consequences High prices Threats Power system failures Wide-area interruption/ Blackout Capacity shortage Vulnerabilities Curtailment/ rationing Three types of consequences Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability of the Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report A5962 SINTEF Energy Research 13

14 Threats, unwanted events and consequences Natural hazard Causes Energy shortage Consequences High prices Antagonistic Operational/ Technological Power system failures Wide-area interruption/ Blackout Social Capacity shortage Vulnerabilities Curtailment/ rationing Example from NordSecurElproject Doorman, G., Kjølle, G.H., Uhlen, K., Huse, E.S., Flatabø, N.: Vulnerability of the Nordic Power System, SINTEF Energy Research 2004, Technical report A5962 SINTEF Energy Research 14

15 Wide-area interruptions: Chain of events and different paths Threat Causes Consequences Geographical extent Threat Threat Threat Threat Power system failures No. of people affected Load disconnected Interruption duration Societal costs Vulnerability is primarily associated with events which potentially impose severe consequences SINTEF Energy Research 15

16 Historical wide-area interruptions (blackouts examples) Disconnected load (MW) Sweden 1983 Southern Sweden/ Eastern Denmark 2003 Western Norway 2004 Helsinki 2003 Southern Sweden 2005 (Gudrun) Canada 1998 France 1999 Europe, UCTE Gudrun: Mainly distribution system affected 0 0, Hours SINTEF Energy Research 16

17 Monitoring vulnerability and security of supply SINTEF Energy Research 17

18 Monitoring security of supply state of the art (in Norway) Energy and power balance Fault and interruption statistics Learning from blackouts/ major events Risk and vulnerability assessment Age development of assets Investment costs Maintenance and reinvestment costs SINTEF Energy Research 18

19 The reliability of supply is improving? Energy not supplied for the Norwegian power system SINTEF Energy Research 19

20 Example from fault statistics: fault rate for 22 kv overhead lines (Norway) No. of faults per 100 km 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 Temporary faults Permanent faults All faults 0, Year SINTEF Energy Research 20

21 Example from fault statistics, 66 kv overhead lines in North of Norway 1000 Steigen blackout No of faults ENS MWh Fault statistics give historical information about failed components only SINTEF Energy Research 21

22 Examples of SoS-indicators in use Number of interruptions Interruption duration Energy not supplied Interruption costs Cost of very long interruptions (> 12 hrs) Fault rate Number of line repairmen Number of reserve units Vegetation management (frequency etc.) SINTEF Energy Research 22

23 Vulnerability in RISK DSAM SINTEF Energy Research 23

24 Example relevant for the vulnerability activity in RISK DSAM How will the maintenance or reinvestment influence the distribution system s susceptibility towards the 150 year storm and the society s vulnerability? Is it possible to define indicators capable of monitoring the effect of maintenance and reinvestment regarding vulnerability? SINTEF Energy Research 24

25 Vulnerability indicator Parameter providing information about vulnerability Work in progress SINTEF Energy Research 25

26 Vulnerabilities and barriers Causes Consequences Natural hazard Technical/ operational Human errors Terror, sabotage etc. Power system failures Barriers Minor Moderate Wide-area interruption/ Blackout Major Critical Catastrophic Vulnerability is related to the barriers; if a barrier doesn t exist or is out of function the system may be vulnerable SINTEF Energy Research 26

27 Barrier a definition Something that can either prevent an event from taking place or protect against its consequence E. Hollnagel, 2004 SINTEF Energy Research 27

28 Different types of barriers Causes Consequences Threat Threat Threat Threat Threat B1 B2 Power system B3 B4 failures Geographical extent People affected Load disconnected Interruption duration Societal costs B1: Barriers to prevent component failure B2: Barriers to prevent power system failure B3: Barriers to facilitate restoration B4: Barriers to reduce end-users consequences SINTEF Energy Research 28

29 Effect of maintenance and reinvestments examples of barriers Type B1 : Limiting presence of degraded components by preventive maintenance and replacement Design improvements to increase redundancy or strength Vegetation management Replacing overhead lines with cables Type B2: Testing of protection settings and schemes Type B3: Standardisation of spare parts, maintenance friendly components SINTEF Energy Research 29

30 Work in progress in RISK DSAM Identify relevant threats and how maintenance and reinvestments can limit component failure or facilitate restoration Identify a set of vulnerability indicators regarding maintenance and reinvestments and describe data needed to estimate the indicators Methods to identify critical components/functions This activity is closely related to another project SINTEF Energy Research 30

31 Vulnerability and security in a changing power system related project Indicators and methods to monitor and classify vulnerabilities in electric power grids Methods and operational tools for power system risk and vulnerability analysis and assessment of the level of security of supply Duration Budget: 16,6 mill. NOK 1,8 mill. Euro SINTEF Energy Research 31