Carbon Capture and Storage in Germany Cost Development, Life Cycle Assessment, and Energy Scenarios within an Integrated Assessment

Transcription

1 Carbon Capture and Storage in Germany Cost Development, Life Cycle Assessment, and Energy Scenarios within an Integrated Assessment Presentation at ENERDAY 2008, Dresden Dr. Peter Viebahn Research Group I: Future Energy and Mobility Structures

2 Outline 1. Aim of the RECCS Study 2. Methodology 3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) 4. Economic Analysis 5. Scenario Analysis 6. Conclusions 2

3 1. Aim of the RECCS Study RECCS Structural, Economic, and Ecological Comparison of Renewable Energy Technologies (RE) with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) (August 2004 until October 2006) Research Project on Behalf of the German Ministry of Environment In co-operation of 3

4 1. Aim of the RECCS Study Starting point long-term energy systems scenarios show: trend towards reducing coal as a source of energy reality shows: coal is the most abundant fossil fuel in many countries CCS as a solution to meet the needs of a carbon reduced economy? Aim of the RECCS study systems analytic view necessary to look behind the technical aspects and to compare CCS with other CO 2 reduction options ecological and economic analysis to compare CCS with REN structural analysis: CCS as a bridge or a barrier for a future sustainable energy system in Germany scenario analysis to show development paths until

5 2. Methodology Ecology and Economy Life cycle assessment defined in ISO ff screening LCA instead of full assessment future-oriented ( prospective LCA ) main impact category: global warming potential reference area: Germany in the year 2020 Experience curves and learning rates fossil without CCS: minor improvements (mature in 2020) fossil including CCS: progress ratio of 88% renewables: different progress ratios > 90% 5

6 2. Methodology Fossil Part Fossil fired power plants assumed capture rates: 88 % (99.5 % for Oxyfuel) higher effiencies for power plants in 2020 sensitivity analyses on crucial parameters (hard coal methane emissions, CO 2 capture rate, leakage rate) Power Plant Fuel Capturing method Decrease of efficiency (%) Pulverised Coal Hard coal Chem. Scrubber (MEA) Pulverised Coal Lignite Chem. Scrubber (MEA) Natural Gas Combined Natural Gas Chem. Scrubber (MEA) Cycle (NGCC) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Hard coal Physical absorption (Rectisol) Pulverised Coal (Oxygen) Hard coal Condensation

7 2. Methodology Renewable Part LCA power plant location wind-offshore power plants (5 MW) in the North Sea solar thermal power plants (400 MW) in North Africa electricity transport to Ruhrgebiet via HVDC both technologies are expected to be competitive in 2020/2025 Cost development mix of renewables based on cost development of single technologies wind-offshore as special case 7

8 3. Life Cycle Assessment Principle of captured and avoided emissions CO 2 in g/kwh ƞ: 50% 42% (IGCC) + 22% Transport and Storage 88% CO 2 - Capture -88% -69% net: - 78% Fuel Supply Power Plant Transport Storage Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) 8

9 3. Life Cycle Assessment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fossil Fired Power Plants (GWP 100) Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) CO 2 capture rate 88 % (Oxyfuel: 99.5 %) 9

10 3. Life Cycle Assessment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Alternative Technologies Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) 10

11 3. Life Cycle Assessment Further Environmental Impact Categories (by Way of a Lignite PP) Not assessed via the LCA: MEA salts have to be handled as hazardous waste. The cooling water flow rate increases by 30%. Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) 11

12 4. Economic Analysis Different Cost Forecasts CO 2 Capture: EUR/t CO 2 (plus costs of transport and storage) Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) Aim of German utilities (Vattenfall, RWE): Cut the total costs below 20 EUR/t CO 2 Similar aims at international level Department of Energy (DoE) EU CCS Technology Platform et al. 12

13 4. Economic Analysis Future Electricity Generation Costs Based on CCS and REN Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) 13

14 5. Scenario Analysis Three Storylines Defining Policy Relevant Scenarios for Germany ECO = efficiency, energy saving, and renewable energy (as outlined in the sustainable energy scenario, BMU 2004) BRIDGE: CCS as a bridge to the diffusion of renewable energy in the future CCSMAX: CCS as main part of a climate protection strategy under business-as-usual conditions with the objective of: reducing the CO 2 emissions by 80% until

15 5. Scenario Analysis Initial Point: Sustainable Energy Scenario (ECO) of the BMU Source: BMU 2007: Leitstudie 2007 ( Leitstudie 2007 of the German Environmental Ministry shows minus 80% CO 2 emissions until 2050 is feasible wihout CCS und nuclear energy with efficiency, cogeneration, and renewables 15

16 5. Scenario Analysis Output Development of Power Plants (ECO vs. CCSMAX) Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) the option CCS might come too late for Germany (current renewal programs do not consider CCS option); the question of retrofit possibility arises ( capture ready ); as a main part of a climate protection strategy CCS will meet its limits with respect to structure and potential. 16

17 5. Scenario Analysis CO 2 Emissions in Each of the Scenarios (only Electricity) Source: Wuppertal Institute / DLR / ZSW / PIK 2007 (RECCS Report) 17

18 6. Conclusions (1) Energy Utitilites / Ecology Energy Utilities CCS only profitable for output smaller than MW el ; CCS commercially available not before 2020; local emissions situation and cooling water requirements; CCS require central structures - avoid barriers for small enterprises! Problem of acceptance should not be undervalued. Ecology It is not justified to talk about CO 2 -free power plants or clean coal concepts if only 70-80% of greenhous gases can be reduced; electricity produced from commercially available NGCC combined heat and power plants results in nearly the same level of emissions than CCS power plants aim to reach; increased fuel supply (and therefore the increase of other environmental impact categories) as well as the huge cooling water flow rate is not sustainable. 18

19 6. Conclusions (2) Economy / Systems Integration Systems Integration Economy CCS enables cost comparison of fossil fired power plants with renewables at the same eye level; CCS will be competitive with renewable energy only in case of moderately increasing fuel prices; both CCS and renewables will have considerable learning effects (offset by increasing fuel prices in case of CCS power plants). The option CCS might come too late for Germany (current renewal programs do not consider CCS option); in the next years efficiency efforts as well as development and use of renewable energies must be enforced; as a main part of a climate protection strategy CCS will meet its limits with respect to structure and potential; both CCSMAX scenario and bridge scenario involve the shift to a hydrogen economy in Germany. 19

20 Many thanks for your attention! RECCS final report available from May 2008 at: (full und short version) 20