Dr. Eric Martinot.

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1 Futures: Dr. Eric Martinot Professor, Beijing Institute of Technology Senior Associate, Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies Report Author, REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report Lead Author Emeritus, REN21 Renewables Global Status Report

2 RENEWABLES 2015 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT Annual Reporting on Renewables: Ten years of excellence 2015

3 Figure 25. Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, Developed and Developing Countries, Billion USD World Total Developed Countries Developing Countries billion USD Source: See Footnotes i and ii for this section

4 Figure 27. Global New Investment in Renewable Energy by Technology, Developed and Developing Countries, 2014 Billion USD Change relative to 2013 Solar Power % Wind % Biomass & Waste-to- Energy % Biofuels % Small Hydro < 50 MW Geothermal Power Developed Countries Developing Countries 17% + 23% Ocean Energy % Figure includes new investment in renewable power and fuels.

5 Figure 26. Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, by Region, Figure 24. Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels, by Region, United States 60 Billion USD United States Americas (excl. United States & Brazil) Billion USD Americas (excl. United States & Brazil) Brazil 20 Billion USD Brazil Africa & Middle East 20 Africa & Middle East Billion USD India Billion USD

6 Europe 120 Europe Billion USD China Asia & Oceania (excl. China & India) India Asia & Oceania (excl. China & India) Billion USD China Billion USD

7 TABLE 1. ESTIMATED DIRECT AND INDIRECT JOBS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY WORLDWIDE, BY INDUSTRY World China Brazil United States India Japan Bangladesh European Union j Germany France Rest of EU THOUSAND JOBS Biomass a,b f Biofuels 1, d 282 g Biogas Geothermal a Hydropower (Small) c Solar PV 2,495 1, CSP h 1 14 Solar heating / cooling e Wind power 1, Total 7,674 i 3, k

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9 Figure 22. Wind Power Global Capacity, Gigawatts 400 World Total 370 Gigawatts

10 Figure 23. Wind Power Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2014 Gigawatts Added in total China United States Germany Spain India United Kingdom Canada France Italy Brazil Additions are net of repowering.

11 TWh 100 Electricity produced in China Wind Nuclear

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13 Figure 16. Solar PV Global Capacity, Gigawatts 200 World Total 177 Gigawatts

14 Figure 17. Solar PV Capacity and Additions, Top 10 Countries, 2014 Gigawatts Added in total Germany China Japan Italy United States France Spain United Kingdom Australia India

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16 Figure 21. Solar Water Heating Collectors Global Capacity, Gigawatts-thermal 400 Glazed collectors Unglazed collectors World Total 406 Gigawatts-thermal

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18 Figure 10. Wood Pellet Global Production, by Country or Region, Million Tonnes 25 World Total 24.1 Million Tonnes Rest of World Rest of Asia China Russia United States, Canada, and Mexico European Union (EU-28)

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20 Figure 9. Ethanol, Biodiesel, and HVO Global Production, Billion Litres World Total Billion Litres Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Biodiesel Ethanol

21 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 2013

22 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 01 HOW MUCH RENEWABLES? 01 Future HOW MUCH RENEWABLES? renewable energy shares are in the range of 15 20% in conservative scenarios, 30 45% in moderate scenarios, and 50 95% in high-renewables scenarios. Attaining high shares of electricity is considered easiest, and high shares of transport energy most uncertain. 14

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24 Table 1: Sectoral Shares of Renewable Energy in Recent Global Scenarios Scenario By Year Electricity Heat Transport By ExxonMobil (2012) % BP (2012) % 7% IEA (2012) New Policies % 14% 6% IEA (2012) % 19% 14% Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution % 51% 17% By 2050 IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2012) 2DS % 39% GEA Global Energy Assessment (2012) % 30% IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2012) 2DS High Renewables % Greenpeace (2012) Energy [R]evolution % 91% 72% WWF (2011) Ecofys Energy Scenario % 85% 100%

25 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 03 INVESTMENT FUTURES: FLOWS, INVESTORS, AND BUSINESS MODELS 32$ 03 INVESTMENT FUTURES: FLOWS, INVESTORS, AND BUSINESS MODELS Annual investment in renewable energy reached US$ billion in 2011 and is projected to increase annually through 2020 and well beyond. Innovative new forms from new sources, such as pension funds along with new business models for energy services for households and businesses and for mobility services.

26 New&Sources&of&Finance& & & Pensionfunds Insurancefunds Aggregatedsecuritiesfunds(likemortgage6backsecurities) Communityfunds Oilcompanies Equipmentsuppliers/vendors Sovereignwealthfundsandnationalgovernments

27 Future&Business&Models& & Third6partyenergyservices leasing,bundlingwithenergyefficiency,per6kwpricing Mobilityservices kilometer6basedpricing,jointownership,integratedwithbuildingsand powergridbalancing Utilitybusinessmodels on6the6billfinancing,smartmetering,newpricingmodels,energy storagesalesinto gridbalancingmarkets Communityandcooperativeownership jointownership,newsocialmodels,multi6family andmulti6buildingheatsupply(micro6districtheating) Industryandretailerinvolvement powercontractswithreliabilityspecifications,green powerpurchases, WindMade consumerlabel

28 Roles&of&Different&Types&of&Companies& ElectricUtilities Oilcompanies Automakers Information6technology(IT)companies Technologyintegrationcompanies(i.e.,Siemens) Buildingsmaterialsmanufacturers(i.e,.architecturalglass)

29 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 02 INTEGRATED FUTURES: CHALLENGES AND POSSIBILITIES 02 INTEGRATED FUTURES: CHALLENGES AND POSSIBILITIES Many policymakers, utilities, builders, automakers, and industries recognize that stronger integration of renewable energy is the next frontier. This means new and grids, to think about building design and construction, to fuel industry, and to provide mobility with renewable energy.

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31 Distributed$(Building5Integrated)$Solar$Power$ Gridparity costofsolarequaltoretailpricewithoutsubsidy,butwhopaysforfixedgrid costs?(and strandedassets ofunneededgridcapacity) Gridaccessandguaranteedsellingprices o US/Europe:netmeteringandfeed<intariffs o NZ:Lower<than<retailpricesandmonthlyconnectionfees Netmeteringpolicies maximumofconsumption,higherthanconsumption Economicefficiencyandincentives andavoidedtransmissionanddistributioninvestments o FeespaidbylinescompaniestoTranspower o Linescompanies incentivesdistortedbyodv optimizeddeprivalvaluation of regulatoryassetbase discouragesenergysavingsordistributedgeneration. Localmicro<utilitiesandenergy<servicebusinesses(includingpeer<to<peer) Districtenergy(communityenergy)systemscombiningheatandpower

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36 RENEWABLES GLOBAL FUTURES REPORT 04 FUTURES AT THE LOCAL/CITY LEVEL: INITIATIVE, PLANNING, AND POLICY 04 FUTURES AT THE LOCAL/ CITY LEVEL: INITIATIVE, PLANNING, AND POLICY Innovative approaches and visions for renewable energy futures are found at the local/city level in a rapidly growing number of jurisdictions around the world. Elements include public infrastructure, community investment, municipal utilities, planning approaches for low-energy buildings and renewable heating/cooling, public transport and smart cities concepts. 38

37 Innovative Approaches and Visions at the Local/City Level Public infrastructure Community investment Municipal utilities Planning approaches for low-energy buildings Renewable (and district) heating and cooling Public transport fleets Electric vehicle infrastructure Smart cities

38 TABLE R19. CITY AND LOCAL RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICIES: SELECTED EXAMPLES TARGETS FOR RENEWABLE SHARE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ALL CONSUMERS Austin, Texas, USA 65% of total energy by 2025 Boulder, Colorado, USA 30% of total energy by 2020 Calgary, Alberta, Canada 30% of total energy by 2036 Cape Town, South Africa 10% of total energy by 2020 Fukushima Prefecture, Japan 100% of total energy by 2040 Hamburg, Germany 20% of total energy by 2020; 100% by 2050 Howrah, India 10% of total energy by 2018 Nagano Prefecture, Japan 70% of total energy by 2050 Oaxaca, Mexico 5% of total energy by 2017 Paris, France 25% of total energy by 2020 Skellefteå, Sweden Net exporter of biomass, hydro, or wind energy by 2020 Växjö, Sweden 100% of total energy by 2030 TARGETS FOR RENEWABLE SHARE OF ELECTRICITY, ALL CONSUMERS Amsterdam, Netherlands 25% by 2025; 50% by 2040 Aspen, Colorado, USA 100% by 2015 Austin, Texas, USA 35% by 2020 Cape Town, South Africa 15% by 2020 Lancaster, California, USA 100% by 2020 Malmö, Sweden 100% by 2020 Munich, Germany 100% by 2025 Nagano Prefecture, Japan 10% by 2020; 20% by 2030; 30% by 2050 San Francisco, California, USA 100% by 2020 San Jose, California, USA 100% by 2022 Skellefteå, Sweden 100% by 2020 Taipei City, Taiwan 12% by 2020 Tokyo, Japan 20% by 2024 Ulm, Germany 100% by 2025 Wellington, New Zealand 78 90% by 2020 TARGETS FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRIC CAPACITY OR GENERATION Adelaide, Australia 2 MW of solar PV on residential and commercial buildings by 2020 Esklistuna, Sweden 48 GWh of wind power, 9.5 GWh of solar PV by 2020 Los Angeles, California, USA 1.3 GW of solar PV by 2020 New York, New York, USA 350 MW of solar PV by 2024 San Francisco, California, USA 100% of peak demand (950 MW) by 2020 TARGETS FOR GOVERNMENT OWN-USE PURCHASES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Cockburn, Australia 20% of final energy in city buildings by 2020 Ghent, Belgium 50% of final energy by 2020 Hepburn Shire, Australia 100% of final energy in public buildings; 8% of electricity for public lighting Kristianstad, Sweden 100% of final energy by 2020 Malmö, Sweden 100% of final energy by 2030 Portland, Oregon, USA 100% of final energy by 2030 Sydney, Australia 100% of electricity in buildings; 20% for street lamps RENEWABLES 2015 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT 157

39 Table Examples of countries and regions which already adopted ambitious targets toward low-energy and zero-energy buildings. Country / Region Nature of target Explanation of the target Year of target UK Zero carbon homes 1 All new houses built in the UK must be carbon neutral by Intermediate targets: carbon performance of new houses to be improved by 25% by 2010 and 44% by 2013, as compared to 2006 Building Regulations (with intermediate targets for 2010 and 2013) California Zero-net-energy buildings 2 All new residential construction will be zero-net-energy by 2020, while all new commercial construction will be zero-net-energy by (for all new residential buildings) 2030 (for all new commercial buildings) Denmark Continuous reduction of energy use in new buildings Maximum energy demand in new buildings must be, compared to the requirements 3 of 2006: 25% lower by % lower by % lower by , 2015, 2020 Austria Passive house standard 4 Social housing subsidies 5 shall only be granted for passive buildings from France Energy positive buildings 6 All new buildings must be energy positive from end of Intermediate target: maximum primary energy demand of 50 kwh/m 2 for new tertiary buildings from end of 2010 and all new buildings from end of (with intermediate target for ) Germany Climate-neutral buildings All new buildings should use zero amount of primary energy by Existing buildings should undergo efficiency renovation in to achieve a 80% reduction in their primary energy demand for new buildings; 2050 for existing buildings

40 Recent&Examples&of&City&and&Local&Policy,&Investment,&and&Business&Trends& & & Copenhagen:*goal*to*become*the*world s*first*carbon7neutral*capital*city*by*2025* * 192*German*cities*have*re7municipalized*local*networks*since*2007.*(Worldwide,*local* governments*moving*towards*municipal*ownership/control*of*local*distribution/generation.)* * Los*Angeles,*Palo*Alto*(CA),*Long*Island*(NY):*local*feed7in*tariffs*for*solar*projects* * Odawara*and*Shizuoka*(Japan):*created*local*energy*companies*to*implement*projects* * Mecca*(Saudi*Arabia):*tender*for*100*MW*renewable*power*plant,*build7operate7transfer* * 33*German*municipal*utilities*formed*consortium*to*invest*in*400*MW*offshore*wind*farm* * 142*U.S.*cities*in*Property*Assessed*Clean*Energy*(PACE)*program,*to*finance*building*retrofits* * Seoul:*plan*for*solar*rooftops*for*1,000*schools* * Lancaster,*California:*mandates* *kW*solar*systems*on*all*new*single7family*homes* * Johannesberg*(South*Africa):*program*for*solar*hot*water*for*110,000*low7income*households* *

41 Recent&Examples&of&City&and&Local&Policy,&Investment,&and&Business&Trends& * * Kyoto:*37kW*solar*power*or*solar*hot*water*mandatory*for*all*new*large*buildings* * Munich:**Goal*of*100%*renewable*electricity*by*20,*both*through*local*sources*and*investment* in*new*renewable*energy*projects*elsewhere*in*europe*(virtual*green*power).* * Vancouver:*convert*existing*steam*heating*to*use*geothermal,*solar,*and*sewage*heat* * Bogota,*Guangzhou,*Mexico*City:*promoting*plug7in*hybrid*and*electric*vehicles* * Amsterdam:*Goal*of*100%*renewable*energy7powered*electric*transport*by*2040.*Subsidies* (EUR*10,000)*for*new*electric*taxis.* * Barcelona:*world s*first*wind7powered*electric7vehicle*charging*station* * Hong*Kong,*Yokohama,*Amsterdam,*Munich,*Melbourne,*many*others:**renewable7powered* electric7vehicle*charging*stations* *

42 Recent&Trends&in&Cities &Support&for&Renewable&Energy&(2014&Developments)& Target'Setting.Cities that enacted new targets in 2014 include: o Austin, Texas: city utility should achieve a 65% renewable energy share by 2025; o New York City: 350 MW of new solar PV in 10 years o Tokyo: 20% of its electricity with renewables by 2024 o Vienna: cover half of heat demand with solar thermal energy by 2050 Global'Movement'to'100%'Renewables.(Electricityonlyorallenergy) o Germany:140municipalitieshavecommittedto100% o FukushimaPrefecture:100%by2040 o MauiCounty,Hawaii:becomefirstAmericanislandstobepowered100%byrenewables o Manycitiesandmunicipalitiesaroundtheworld,including74inGermany,havereached 100%renewableenergygoalsalready ' Mandates'for'Buildings' o SãoPauloandotherBraziliancitiestakingaleadingroleinadoptingbuildingcodesthat promoterenewableheattechnologies o 10citiesinShandongProvince,Chinaadoptedmandatesforsolarwaterheaters o Dubai(UAE)andGuragon(India)mandateuseofsolarPV

43 Net'Metering'for'Solar'Power'(PV)' o DelhiandBangaloreinIndiaapprovednewnetmeteringprogrammesin2014 o DubaibecamethefirstcityintheMiddleEasttoadoptacomprehensivelegislative frameworkforsolarsellingbacktothegrid Public'Financing'Policies' o Barcelona:USD14millionsubsidyschemetopromoterooftoprenovation,includingthe installationofsolarwaterheaters o Melbourne:rebatestobusinessesforthepurchaseandinstallationofsolarPVsystems o Shenzhen(China):increasingEVsusedinthecity staxifleet,offeringtaxidriverstheability toleaseevswithnodownupayments ' PublicDPrivate'Partnerships' o XiongCounty(BaodingCity,China):partnershiptodevelopgeothermalresources,which nowcover90%ofheatdemandwithinthecounty sdistrictheatingareas o Melbourne: grouppurchasingmodel wherelargeenergyusersacrossthecitycan aggregatetheirenergydemandtobenefitfromeconomiesofscale. Electric'Vehicles'and'Public'Buses' o SanFrancisco:busfleettransitioningtoallbiofuelandelectric o U.S.coalitionofcitygovernmentagenciesmadethelargestUeverpurchaseofEVsinUS o Paris:USD12 49millionofelectricbusesforcitybusfleet

44 SUMMARY:((TRANSPORT( Convertthepublictransportfleetandpublicsectorvehiclefleettoalternativefuels o Manycitiesaroundtheworldalreadydoingthis o Advancedbiofuelsfromagriculturalandforestrywaste o Electricityandbiofuelsforbuses Passengervehiclefleetbecomesmajorityelectric o Transportpatterns:howmuchtravelsuitableforlow?rangecheapelectrics? o Roleofelectric2?wheelersinmeetingamuchlargershareoftransport o Usingelectricvehiclesforbalancingpeakelectricitydemand integrationof electricityandtransportatthelocallevel o Mobilityservicebusinessmodels Developanelectricvehiclechargingnetwork o Time?of?usechargingandrates:nighttimearbitrage,supplyforpeak?loads o Incrementalchargingfromlocalrenewables o Roleofcharginginfrastructureinencouragingcheapsmall2?personelectrics Improvecyclinginfrastructure o Alsoforlow?speedelectric2?wheelersusingthesamecyclinginfrastructure?(

45 SUMMARY:((LOCAL(POWER(GENERATION( Rooftopsolarpower o Businessmodelsforleasing,fee?for?service,prepaid(Vector,SunRun,SolarCity) o Demonstrationsofbusiness,finance,social,andregulatorymodels,nottechnologies o Reducingcostsofinstallation,material,laborcategories o Batterystorage(side?stepsbarriersofnecessaryregulatory/marketchanges) o Buy?backrates(FITvs.netmetering) o Guaranteedgridaccess o Timeofusepricing(capturevalueofpeakelectricity) o SolarPVthatlookslike buildingenergyefficiency not powergeneration Demandresponseforcommercialandresidentialbuildings o Firstopportunitiesinindustry,agriculture,foodprocessing,commercialbuildings o Importantforbalancinglocalpowerdemand,withpeakreductionsand smartgrid Smartgridandreducingpeakenergydemand o Municipalizelocaldistributionandgeneration?Muchprecedentaroundtheworld. o Time?of?userates o Valueofpeakpower(morning,6pm)passedalongtoconsumer,micro?generators Peer?to?peerenergy o Electricitydistributioncompanywirefee o Licensingofmicro?generatorandlegalframework

46 SUMMARY:((HEAT(SUPPLY( ( ( Building?scaleheatingvs.community?scaleheating o Solarhotwater/heatingonacommunityscalewithalarge anchor tenant o Zero?energybuildings o Mandatesforsolarhotwater/heatingonnewconstruction o Solarhotwater/heatingsupplychainandlaborpracticeandtraining:drastically reducingequipmentcostsandinstallationlaborcosts o Small?scalebiomassCHPforschool,hospital,smallindustry;withheatstorageatthe consumptionend,thepowercanbevariedtobalanceoutpeakloads(denmark) Heatsupplyfrommunicipalwasteandsewageplantsfedintolocalnetworks o Requirespipinginbuildings,radiators o Canbecombinedwithsolarthermalheating,small?scalebiomassCHP,andthermal storage (

47 100%$Renewable$Energy$Communi5es$$