Climate change: facts, impacts and global security

Transcription

1 Climate change: facts, impacts and global security Unesco Paris July 2009 Philip C. Reid

2 FACTS

3 IPCC 2007 Warming unequivocal Very high confidence that due to forcing by human activities

4 Global surface temperature anomalies ( C) Base period NOAA GISS

5 Global surface temperature anomalies ( C) 2008 Base period NOAA GISS

6 Domingues et al Nature 453 GLOBAL TRENDS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT Ocean Heat Content (10 22 J) Years

7 HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION SALINITY

8 Poleward freshening and higher salinities in low latitudes in the 1990s Curry et al Nature 426 See also Rignoul GRL

9 Carbon dioxide (CO 2 )

10 Oxygen isotope (ice volume) and temperature down the EPICA ice core (Antarctica) CO2 ppm Temperature anomaly ( C) Age x1000 years EPICA Community members 2004 Nature

11 Global Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Year 2008: ppm 38% above pre-industrial Mauna Loa May 2009: ppm Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (

12 Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (

13 FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CEMENT MANUFACTURE FOREST DESTRUCTION

14 Million metric tonnes of carbon East Asia: China North America bil tonnes C 2006 record 8230 mil tonnes C Source: Boden et al CDIAC USA

15 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI (Avgs.) A1B A1T A2 B1 B Raupach et al PNAS and Global Carbon Project 2009, Canadell 2009 lecture

16 Earth Pyrogeography Mean number of fires from satellites Fires per year > 500 Bowman et al Science 324

17 IMPACTS

18 SEA LEVEL RISE

19 Sea Level Rise From coastal observations From satellite observations Model projections Rahmsdor f et al. 2007, Science

20 Ocean carbon pumps Small variation - potential large impact on the atmosphere

21 MELTING ICE

22 Arctic Annual Sea Ice Minimum NASA 2009 from Canadell lecture

23 Antarctica Ice velocity and mass loss/gain of large basins O Loss Gt per year O Gain Gt per year +10 Gt yr 1 10 Gt yr 1 Rignot et al Nature Geoscience

24 Schematic section of the Antarctic ice sheet Australian Antarctic Division web site

25 MOUNTAIN GLACIERS

26 Retreat of the Gangotri glacier snout from 1780 to 2001 Bajracharya et al ICIMOD

27 METHANE PERMAFROST HYDRATES

28 Map of Northern Hemisphere permafrost Methane Alfred Wegener Institute Alaska Katey Walter Univ.

29 TRANS-ARCTIC MIGRATION

30 Reid et al Global Change Biology 13 Pacific diatom in the Northwest Atlantic circa Neodenticula seminae

31 DROUGHT FLOODS TROPICAL CYCLONES

32 REGIME SHIFT

33 North Sea Phytoplankton Colour Step changes in regional sea systems: Regime shift D S J M J Reid et al. 1998, Nature 391, 546 (updated)

34 10 6 km 2 Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Mar-Apr Years Brown 2000 IPCC 2005 WG 1

35 BIODIVERSITY

36 Thomas et al Nature Rashida Saleem web photo

37 Northerly movement of plankton and fish Warm temperate slope species 2005 Euchaeta hebes, Clausocalanus, Ceratium hexacanthum Beaugrand et al Science 296,

38 A further complication Ocean acidification Coral reef destruction Extinction? Calcareous plankton

39 ph ph since the Miocene and projections to 2150 Time in millions of years before present Turley et al and Canadell lecture

40 FOREST/PEAT FIRES

41 Forest fires in 2100

42 GLOBAL SECURITY

43 WORLD POPULATION YEAR Source: Haub, Kent 1999 Population bulletin 54

44 WATER SCARCITY TRADE URBANISATION MIGRATION TRAVEL WAR

45 HUMAN HEALTH EPIDEMICS HEAT EXHAUSTION

46 ECONOMICS

47 Sir Nicholas Stern 2006 STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change Strong, early action outweigh the costs March 2009 A Blueprint For a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and Prosperity Costs unnecesary or can be delayed? Profoundly misguided, risks enormous July 2009 Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial Lecture hosted by Chatham House

48 Simulated surface air temperature in Bergen model Temp anomaly C v mean temp Helge Drange, Bergen Projected enormous change within 100 years

49 Passing on the message to children Considerable educational material available Very variable quality Incorporate CC into all aspects of the curriculum Teach ethics and economics of climate change Include new renewable energy sources Focus on climate change in geography Stimulate inventiveness Encourage careers in science and engineering Need to change the way we live and interact

50 Conclusions Very rapid observation and predictive change, accelerating Wide range of impacts that can be attributed to climate change Key role of the oceans Complication of effect on carbon cycle of ocean acidification (ph) Trends of emissions, T, CO2 and impacts tracking close to highest scenarios of IPCC Rapid melting of glaciers and some ice sheets Expected high extinction rate of plants and animals by 2100 Large global security consequences Major economic benefits if we act now Decadal to 100 year plus prognosis worrying Crucial to pass on the message to the next generation NOT TACKLING ISSUES WITH URGENCY AND RESOURCES REQUIRED

51 Positive take home message NOT A DOOM MONGER Stern report Huge economic potential PREPARE FOR THE FUTURE BY ADAPTING! BUT implement NOW! By changing all aspects of our life styles SAVE ENERGY, INSULATE, PRODUCE ENERGY AT THE HOUSE LEVEL DEVELOP PUBLIC TRANSPORT OPERATE LOCALLY, RECYCLE INTENSIFY INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ACCELERATE MITIGATION MEASURES See IPCC WG 3 Report May 2007