Optimizing ROI for installations through monitoring and forecasting. Joona Mörsky Technical Specialist Etelä-Savon Energia Oy, ESE Mikkeli, Finland

Transcription

1 Optimizing ROI for installations through monitoring and forecasting Joona Mörsky Technical Specialist Etelä-Savon Energia Oy, ESE Mikkeli, Finland

2 Optimizing ROI for installations through monitoring and forecasting 1. Background 2. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer 3. Monitor performance to avoid revenue loss 4. Forecast production to get maximum value of production 5. Choose good mounting system to minimize risk

3 1. Background ESE (Etelä-Savon Energia Oy) is an energy company owned by city of Mikkeli, Finland. ESE is focusing on green and sustainable energy Water Wind Solar Wood Biogas Mikkeli ESE was found for demand in 1900 In the late 1800 s people in Mikkeli were frustrated: they wanted decent street lights.

4 118 yrs old startup company Founded in 1900 to bring light to darkens One of the first district heating system in Finland (1958) Pursiala Power Plant (1990) (~85 % renewable energy sources) District heat battery (2016) Mäkelänkangas Finland s first hybrid power (Wind + Solar) plant (2016) Celsius Avards, Inspiring solutions : Using solar heat to replace oil usage during summer (2017) Sun Mikkeli - the most modern solar energy plant in Finland (2017) BioHauki Biogas plant (2017) Foremica & Spector genuinely intelligent energy management solution (2018)

5 Sun Mikkeli 300kWp

6 Mäkelänkangas 720 kwp

7 Celsius Avards, Inspiring solutions: Replacing oil boiler usage with solar heat 86 kwp

8 2. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer

9 Production losses on solar installations Temperature losses [Mounting system ] Reflections [Panel surface ] Converting losses [Inverter ] Panel internal losses [Panel quality ] Resistive losses [Inverter, Electrical design ] Snow and dirt [Mounting system, panel surface]

10 1. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer Quality Quality in each production patch of solar panels is normally distributed Good and reliable panel manufacturer only deliver panels near specification There can be multiple specification s For example: module power (340, 350 and 360Wp)

11 1. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer - Communication Good communication with the panel manufacturer ensures: Delivery of materials on time every time Constant product development with listening and taking feedback Readiness to resolve any quality issues

12 1. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer - Testing Good and reliable panel manufacturer test their products in real conditions before sending them to customers

13 Choose a reliable panel manufacturer Solar panels are most important part of any solar panel installation Good communication is important with panel manufacturer Testing ensures panel quality on harsh conditions NPV [ /WP] NPV with production loss scenarios YEAR 0 % 5 % 10 % 30 %

14 3. Monitor performance to avoid revenue loss

15 3. Monitor performance to avoid revenue loss Solar powerplants consist of hundreds of panels and components Faulty components causing revenue loss important to fix and replace during when they have warranty Broken component is lost investment Monitor your site to avoid revenue loss But how to exclude weather out from calculations? NPV [ /WP] NPV with production loss scenarios YEAR 0 % 5 % 10 % 30 %

16 Foremica & Spector by ESE Performance analytics with machine learning Performance values independent from Weather Panel direction Panel type or nominal power Detects degrading components Inverters Panels Weather sensors Detects panels production differences under 2 weeks in any weather Possibility to compare different directions and power panels to each other Detects shadows

17 4. Forecast production to get maximum value of production

18 Forecast production to get maximum value of production Production value is key factor optimizing ROI on solar panel system Solar production have more value on site than sold to grid Own usage of production can be optimized using forecasting NPW [ /WP] Energy price effect to ROI YEAR 0,04 0,10

19 Example: Household with water boiler Without smart load control No load during day EV is on work place Water boiler is turned off Any solar production is sold to grid with value ~25-30 /MWh (Energy price) With smart load control System forecast production and loads solar energy to water boiler and mass heat storage (no need heat them during night) Value of production is 100 /MWh (energy price + energy tax + grid fees) More grid capacity for EV during night Inverter Grid connection Foremica Waterboiler Mass heat storage

20 Foremica & Spector by ESE Forecast with AI Production forecast for next 48 hours in 10min resolution AI learns how weather and system behaves for each inverter Possibility to control loads based on own production and energy price Minimize the need of batteries and other on grid balancing system

21 5. Choose a good mounting system

22 Choose a good mounting system - Right mounting for climate condition Sustainable panel mounting Installed on top of old railways concrete pillar Local Heat-treated pinewood Good airflow under panels Galvanized steel Long lifetime, small environmental footprint Developed by ESE and Finnwind Important to test and verify that mounting system can handle local Panel load on snow and ice condition Wind load even in thunderstorms Frost

23 Choose a good mounting system Easy installation Mounting to uneven ground No land leveling needed Cost efficient Good airflow under panels Flexes with the temperature changes Made from galvanized steel Long life time even in harsh condition Developed by ESE and Finnwind Cost of labor on site is one of the major components of total cost of installation Making installation fast easy, total cost of system is keep optimum

24 5. Choose a good mounting system Keep your panels (or roof) cool Typical production loss of panels is 0.4%/Celsius 25C temperature rise cuts the peak production 10%! Solar panels also cut temperature of the roof and there for energy used for cooling NPV [ /WP] NPV with production loss scenarios YEAR 0 % 5 % 10 % 30 %

25 Choose good mounting system Minimize risk Cost of capital in any project reflects project risk Lower the risk, lower the cost of capital Cost of Risk (intrest rate) NPV [ /WP] YEAR 3 % 7 %

26 Foremica & Spector by ESE Optimizing ROI for installations through monitoring and forecasting Minimize risks 1. Choose a reliable panel manufacturer 2. Monitor performance to avoid revenue loss 3. Forecast production to get maximum value of production 4. Choose good mounting system

27 Foremica & Spector All the energy smartness in one device Smart energy management Sustainable energy forecasting with machine learning Plant performance monitoring (Solar + Wind) with machine learning Smart load control and demand respond Virtual powerplants Smart grid connections Product release in at the Vaasa Wind Exchange & Solar fair

28 Thank you Joona Mörsky Technical Specialist ESE (Etelä-Savon Energia Oy)