Climate Changes and Changes in Epidemiology. Population Growth, Urban Concentration, Vulnerable

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1 Climate Changes and Changes in Epidemiology Conference Population Growth, Urban Concentration, Vulnerable Populations and Regions Worldwide Dr Grant Blashki PHCRED Fellow Nossal Institute for Global Health University of Melbourne Visiting Fellow NCEPH, Australian National University

2 Population Growth Throughout History World Population Billion Billion Billions Billion 1 0 First Modern Humans Billion Million 160, ,000 10,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 2,150 BC B.C. BC B.C. BC B.C. BC B.C.. BC B.C BC B.C. BC B.C. BC B.C. BC B.C. BC B.C. AD A.D. AD A.D. AD A.D. AD A.D. Source: United Nations

3 Global Population 8% 6% Popul lation (Billi ions) 4% 2% Developing e Nations % Developed Nations Source: United Nations Population Division, 2000

4 World Population (Billions) YEAR TOTAL POPULATION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Source: U.N Population Division, March 13, 2007

5 World Urban and Rural Population Source: United Nations, DESA, Population Division 5 World Population Prospects: The 2005 Revision

6 The Urban Poor Slums

7 Concentrations of Main Greenhouse Gases over Past 2000 Years (IPCC 2007) 2005 CO Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) CO 2 ppm N 2 O ppb CH 4 ppb CO 2 N 2 O CH 4

8 av temp Estimated global mean temperature, o C

9 Projected warming, to 2100: for six different future global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios 3 of the 6 emissions scenarios Warming already in pipeline from recent/current GHG levels (~0.6 o C) Uncertainty range: 1 standard deviation + 4 o C A1F1 A2 Warming ( o C) 23 models (tested against recent record) baseline temperature + 2 o C High future emissions Low future emissions A1B B1 A1T B2 A1F o C models No. of used for models each scenarioused Year Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 : Wkg Gp I 6 different GHG emissions scenarios

10 Observed and Modelled Temperature Changes, 20 th Century, (Relative to Av Temp) Observed Model predictions: natural and humaninduced forcings models using both natural and human-induced forcings Model predictions: with natural forcings only

11 Sea Level Rise

12 Storms

13 Low Elevation Coastal Zones From

14 IPCC on Glaciers In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives. IPCC Fourth report summary for policy makers

15 Glacier AX010, Nepal June 1978 Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University

16 Glacier AX010, Nepal August 2004 Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University

17 Heatwaves

18 Europe Heatwave 2003 Temperature anomaly (C )

19 Heat Island Effect

20 Impaired Agriculture

21 IPCC (2007): Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields by (Adaptation not adjusted for)

22 Seasonal rainfall zones and here? Are the zones being pushed south, by warming? Summer dominant Summer Uniform Marked wet summer and dry winter Wet summer and low winter rainfall Uniform rainfall Crucial for wheat-belt Winter Wet winter and low summer rainfall Winter dominant Arid Marked wet Low rainfall winter and dry summer

23 Climate Change: Casting a Long Shadow over Parts of Rural Australia Agricultural ral productivity: it incomes, livelihoods Displacement of people and communities Community functioning and morale Access to fresh water (irrigation, i livestock, domestic hygiene, drinking) Exposure to environmental extremes (heat, dust, floods, bushfires) Mental stress, depression and risk of suicide Emotional and developmental effects on children Local food yields, affordability: nutritional health consequences Infectious disease patterns: bacterial foodpoisoning, water-borne infections, viruses in dust Changes in health-related behaviours (alcohol self-medication, etc.)

24 Health risks of climate change are significant, and concentrated on the poor WHO comparative risk assessment estimated that by 2000, climate change that had occurred since the 1970s was causing over 150,000 additional deaths per year (WHO, 2002)

25 Health impacts of climate change Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to Patz et al, in press

26 Emissions of greenhouse gases Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in Patz et al

27 As the developing world develops..

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29 1 Reduce Total Fertility Rate Reducing Total Fertility Rate is a crucial part of reducing global warming. 1. Decrease Infant Mortality 2. Empower Women 3. Improve access to reproductive services.

30 2 Plan for Urbanisation

31 3 Better Local Data Demographic Spatial

32 4 Primary Health Care

33 Role of Primary Health Care in Responding to Climate Change Health Services Decrease Child Mortality Reproductive Services Blashki G McMichael T, Karoly D Climate Change and Primary Health Care Australian Family Physician 2007:

34 Hope