Environmental Flow Tool for Integrated Decision Making: Case of Pangani River Basin Tanzania

Transcription

1 Environmental Flow Tool for Integrated Decision Making: Case of Pangani River Basin Tanzania 5 th World Water Forum Istanbul, Turkey IUCN Pavilion Sylvand Kamugisha Coordinator, Pangani River Basin Management Project

2 Project Partners Anchor Environmental Consultants

3 Presentation Outline Introduction Design Considerations Process and Scenario Development Way forward to Implementation & Challenges

4 Introduction: Pangani River Basin

5 Introduction: Pangani Basin s Resources 3.8 million people 2 nd highest agricultural output in Tanzania 17% of Tanzania s hydropower production biodiversity hotspot Water-stressed basin, supply does not meet demand = conflicts

6 Introduction: Why Environmental Flow in Pangani basin? Reduced Flows Increased demand for water for irrigation and hydropower have led to the drying of perennial rivers and salt water intrusion (20 km) at the estuary The Kikuletwa river is no longer perennial

7 Introduction: Why Environmental Flow in Pangani basin? Livelihoods depending on environmental resources NR - Based Livelihoods >95% of Tanzanians depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. Failure to ensure adequate water provisions for these resources jeopardizes livelihoods across the country

8 Introduction: Why Environmental Flow in Pangani basin? Policy provisions on EFs: National Water Policy (2002) Environmental Management Act (2004)

9 Design Considerations Limited capacity to implement EFA policy provisions Target audience Methodologies Capacity building within the country Participation of stakeholders in the process Dr. Jackie King, University of Cape Town, SA with Tanzanian hydrologist

10 Pangani Basin FA Process Pangani Basin FA Process Detailed Study Sites Flows assessment sites along the River and 10 in the Estuary E

11 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 1: Hydrology report for the basin: water balance and data sets for simulated historical and present day conditions; summary hydrology for selected scenarios in terms of yield, distribution and volume Task 2: Study area delineation and site selection: delineate relatively homogenous zones and sub-zones along the river and estuary and for socio-economic activities Task 3: Health assessment of the rivers and estuary: conditions during dry and wet seasons, initial species lists and identification of key areas of concern for the river system, estuary and major wetlands

12 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 4: Baseline socio-economic assessment: description of people s relationship to water and river resources; well-being (social indicators-income, health, etc) Task 5: State of the Basin Report : synthesis of the understanding of the river systems and its economies and identification of major gaps: develop ToRs for specialist studies Task 6: Specialist Studies Input : Hydraulics, hydropower operations, riparian vegetation, fisheries and invertebrates, macro-economic and climate change

13 Pangani Basin FA Process Process Task 7: Development of an FA scenario-evaluation tool: To populate the scenario-evaluation tool with conceptual flow response relationships; develop user manual Task 8: Practical application of scenario evaluation by National core team FA team: Model other selected scenarios independently Task 9: Final Reporting: This includes developing summarizing the technical reports into simple format for a wide audience Task 10: Awareness raising outside of the FA Study Team Task 11&12: Training Workshops on EF concepts and DSS: During the course of the project, the two tasks were added to reinforce capacity building

14 Pangani Basin FA Process Products Available reports to date Hydrology Basin Delineation River Health Estuary Health Social-economic State of the Basin Report Pangani Flows DSS Water Allocation Scenarios

15 Scenario Development: List of Scenarios 1. Maximise Agriculture 2. Maximise Hydro Electric Power (HEP) 3. Optimise Present Day with Agriculture in 4. Optimise Present Day with HEP 5. High Environment 6. Present Day with Climate Change 7. Maximise Agr. Less 20% wet season rainfall 8. Maximise Agr less 30% wet season rainfall 9. Maximise HEP, less 20% wet season rainfall 10. Maximise HEP, less 30% wet season rainfall

16 Scenario Definition: Maximum Agriculture Scenario Sector Priority Human Needs 1 Urban water 2 supply Agriculture 3 HEP 4 Environment Climate Change Residual n/a Large scale Agriculture

17 Scenario: Maximise Agriculture Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity - decline Social well-being - small positive impact Economic* decline significant % of Chang e from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics *Change in economic value: direct value added to national economy in case of agriculture and natural resources, cost savings to the economy in case of HEP and ecosystems services

18 Scenario Definition: Max Hydro-Electric Power Scenario Sector Human Needs 1 Urban water supply Priority 2 Agriculture 4 HEP 3 Environment Climate Change Residual n/a Hydropower generation

19 Scenario: Maximise HEP Predicted impact from Present Day Ecological integrity - small negative impact Social well-being - negative impact Economic strong positive impact % of Change from Ecosystem Integrity Social wellbeing Economics

20 Summary of Scenarios

21 Key observations from the predictions the scenarios that maximize HEP, increases inundation of Kirua swamp, The positive economic effects of increasing HEP production coincide with the positive environmental effects on Kirua swamp and increased fish catches and reed area. However, this reduces the lake levels and fishes catches. The river is expected to be better than Present Day under the Optimizing Present Day and High Environment scenarios. The predicted social wellbeing is negatively impacted from present in almost all scenarios; thus calling for the scenario that will push it to the positive side

22 Way Forward: Implementation Operationalizing Results Awareness creation on the various scenarios and technical information obtained Consultations among stakeholders/decision makers to select the desired development path, hence the desired environmental flow Integrate desired scenario into IWRM planning Basin Water Officer consults with stakeholders

23 Way Forward: Challenges Negotiation mechanism to meet the interest of ecosystem, hydropower and agriculture Refinement of the results - regular monitoring of relevant river parameters Reliable climate change predictions Detailed studies to be undertaken Basin Water Officer consults with stakeholders

24 Way Forward: Challenges Need for a coordinated Tanzania approach to EFA Mara River Basin - WWF & other partners using BBM Wami River Basin - WRBWO & TCMP & Florida University using BBM Pangani River Basin PBWO & IUCN & SW + Anchor using modified DRIFT Ruaha in Rufiji River Basin WWF&RBWO using BBM

25 Thank you for your attention!