Analysis of Transportation Strategies to Reduce GHGs

Transcription

1 Analysis of Transportation Strategies to Reduce GHGs Moving Cooler A National, State and Regional View of Transportation and Land Use Strategies New York State MPO Annual Conference June 15, 2010 presented by David L. Jackson Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Transportation leadership you can trust.

2 Presentation Agenda Transportation Sector Context Moving Cooler On-Road GHG Emissions Baseline Strategies Examined Analytic Approach & Findings Regional Implications & Conclusions Agency Responsibilities Maryland DOT Metro Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) Collaborative Decision Making Process

3 Transportation s Contribution to U.S. GHGs U.S. GHG Emissions by End Use Economic Sector 2006 U.S. GHG Emissions Breakdown by Mode Residential 5% Commercial 6% Electricity Generation 33% Other 2.0% Rail 2.7% Marine Light-Duty Vehicles 59.3% 4.9% Agriculture 8% Aircraft 11.5% Heavy-Duty Vehicles Industry Transportation 19.6% 20% 28% Source: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , April 2009,

4 Federal Action on Transportation and Climate Change U.S. DOT Report to Congress on Transportation and Climate Change Federal transportation authorization bill likely to include provisions for considering GHG emissions Energy legislation likely will address national GHG reduction targets and include funding for MPO/state target setting US DOT/US EPA Joint Rulemaking (2016 LDV CAFE) Administration directive on LDV CAFE and M/HDV GHG/fuel economy standards

5 State and Local Action on Transportation and Climate Change Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2009

6 Strategies to Reduce GHG Emissions

7 Moving Cooler Study Objective: Examine the potential of VMT and travel efficiency strategies to reduce GHG emissions Moving Cooler targets 2 of the 4 legs McKenzie study / US DOT Report addresses vehicle technology and fuels

8 Alternative Baseline/Policy Tests to 2050 National On-Road GHG Emissions (mmt) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 American Clean Energy and Security Act 2020 Target (83% of 2005 emissions) 1, American Clean Energy and Security Act 2050 Target (17% of 2005 emissions) Moving Cooler Baseline 2016 CAFE & Extended Policies High Fuel Price, Low VMT Low Fuel Price, High VMT High-tech, High VMT Highlights potential GHG emission outcomes based on varying fuel price and technology scenarios

9 Spatial Allocation of On-Road GHGs Share of Cumulative ( ) National On-Road GHG Emissions 43% 22% 15% Large/High Density Regions (New York City, Buffalo) Large/Low Density Regions (Rochester) Medium/High Density Regions (Albany, Syracuse) Medium/Low Density Regions (Poughkeepsie-Newburgh) Small/High Density Regions - (Ithaca, Binghamton, Elmira) Small/Low Density Regions (Kingston, Utica, Glens Falls) 9% 6% 2% Non-Urban Areas 2%

10 Range of Strategies Examined VMT Focus Parking, cordon & congestion pricing Economy wide pricing Land use & non-motorized Urban transit: fares, LOS & service expansion Intercity passenger rail & high-speed rail Car sharing, employer based commute Consolidated freight facilities System Efficiency Focus Congestion pricing HOV/Managed lanes Speed limit reductions Eco-driving Systems operations and management, bottleneck relief and capacity expansion Overweight load permits, WIM screening, truck stop anti-idling Truck-only lanes Rail and marine infrastructure bottlenecks

11 Range of Strategies Examined (cont.) URBAN Focus Parking, cordon & congestion pricing Land use & nonmotorized Urban transit: fares, LOS & service expansion HOV, car sharing, commute strategies Operational, ITS, bottleneck relief & capacity expansion Consolidated freight facilities ALL AREA Focus Economy-wide pricing Eco-driving Overweight load permits, WIM screening, truck stop anti-idling Truck only lanes Rail and marine infrastructure bottlenecks NON-URBAN Focus Intercity tolls Intercity passenger rail, high-speed rail Speed limit reductions

12 Analytic Approach 1. Estimate the GHG reduction of each individual strategy (change in fuel consumption) Cumulative reduction for 2030 and 2050 Annual reductions in critical target years (2020, 2030, 2050) 3 levels of intensity of implementation 2. Bundle the strategies and examine the combined impacts Effectiveness Interactions, synergies, antagonistic effects Cost Other societal impacts / co-benefits / externalities Equity effects

13 Moving Cooler: Example Findings Ranges of Individual Strategies Strategy GHG Reduction from Baseline (2020) VMT Fees % Bike and Pedestrian % PAYD Insurance % Congestion Pricing % Eco-Driving % Land Use/Smart Growth % Urban Public Transit LOS/Expansion % Employer-Based Commute/Parking Pricing % Operational and ITS Improvements %

14 Bundling Strategies Will be Key Combined effectiveness Interactions, synergies, antagonistic effects Cost and cost effectiveness Other societal impacts/co-benefits/externalities Equity effects Low Cost Facility Pricing Near-Term/ Early Results System and Driver Efficiency Long-Term/ Maximum Results Land Use/ Nonmotorized/ Public Transportation

15 Example: System and Driver Efficiency Bundle Combination of strategies to enhance the efficiency of transportation networks Congestion pricing, transit LOS, HOV lanes, car sharing, speed limits, system operations and management, multimodal freight strategies Improve travel speeds, reduce congestion and idling, create viable alternatives to driving alone

16 Example: Land Use / Transit / Nonmotorized Bundle Urban transit Fare reduction Increased transit service Urban transit expansion Land use increased density Pedestrian/bicycle Parking pricing/parking restrictions Congestion pricing High-speed rail/intercity passenger rail expansion Urban consolidation centers (freight) HOV expansion Car sharing Signal enhancement Traveler information

17 Findings: Bundles Combinations of transportation strategies can achieve GHG reductions from transportation (synergies) 4% to 18% GHG reduction from baseline* in 2050 (aggressive deployment, without economy-wide pricing) Up to 24% GHG reduction from baseline* in 2050 (maximum deployment, without economy-wide pricing) These strategies complement the important (and more significant) reductions anticipated from fuel and technology advancements * Projections for on-road surface transportation GHG emissions

18 Range of Annual GHG Reductions of Six Strategy Bundles Aggressive and Maximum Deployment Total Surface Transportation Sector GHG Emissions (mmt) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, % 11% 3% 17% Study Baseline 4% 18% 24% Aggressive Development Levels Maximum Development Levels & 2005 GHG Emissions Combination of DOE AEO data and EPA GHG Inventory data Study Annual 1.4% VMT growth combined with 1.9% growth in fuel economy Aggressive Deployment Levels Range of GHG emissions from bundles deployed at aggressive level Maximum Deployment Levels Range of GHG emissions from bundles deployed at maximum level Note: This figure displays the GHG emission range across the six bundles for the aggressive and maximum deployment scenarios. The percent reductions are on an annual basis from the Study Baseline. The 1990 and 2005 baseline are included for reference.

19 Conclusions Regional Planning Background Regional transportation planning processes consider VMT and system efficiency strategies in short and long range plans These strategies are included in plans based on their ability to target regional goals, meet conformity requirements, address planning factors, and meet feasibility and financial constraints. Strategy implementation results in changes in traveler behavior and system performance At present, most MPOs do not consider GHG emission impacts of transportation planning decisions or include GHG emissions as a performance measure

20 Conclusions Regional Planning Direction States and regions leading the way in developing Climate Action Plans and legislating GHG reduction targets Federal transportation reauthorization to include provisions for including GHG emissions as a planning factor Energy legislation to formalize a process for setting national GHG reduction targets and to include funding for MPO/state target setting

21 Conclusions Moving Cooler Application for MPOs Moving Cooler provides: A process to estimate GHG reductions (annual and cumulative) from VMT and system efficiency strategies Strategy specific sketch modeling level approaches and technical resources that can be applied at the regional context, Estimating tools for costs and system user savings, A broad set of policies, strategies and implementation/deployment level considerations, Bundling concepts and interaction approaches, and Ranges of GHG reduction estimates to assist in: Incorporating GHG emissions as criteria in visioning and long range planning Developing ambitious yet achievable regional targets

22 Conclusions Synergies result in more significant reductions Some strategies are effective in achieving near-term reductions, reducing the cumulative GHG challenge Investments in land use and improved travel options involve longer timeframes but have enduring benefits Both national level and state/regional/local strategies are important GHG reductions should be viewed relative to the scale of potential implementation Many strategies contribute to other social, economic and environmental goals while reducing GHGs Some strategies have significant equity implications that should be examined and addressed

23 Transportation GHG Reduction Strategies & Responsibilities Strategy Group State Transp. Metro Transp. Local Transp. Local Other State Other Transportation System Planning and Design Construction and Maintenance Practices Transportation System Management & Operations X X X X X X X X X Vehicle and Fuel Policies X X Transportation Planning and Funding X X X Land Use Codes, Regulations, other Policies X Taxation and Pricing X X Travel Demand Management X X X Public Education X X X X X

24 Analytic Approach for Tailored Transportation Strategy to Reduce GHGs 1. Establish baseline: GHG effects of current program 2. Set target and timeframe for GHG reduction 3. Select strategies and define parameters 4. Estimate GHG reduction from individual strategies 6. Assess effectiveness in meeting GHG target 5. Bundle strategies and estimate combined impacts

25 Maryland s Response to Climate Change April 2007 Governor O Malley s Executive Order 25% reduction by 2020 from 2006 baseline Established Maryland Commission on Climate Change: 16 agency heads 6 General Assembly members Private sector NGOs Local governments August 2008 Climate Action Plan (CAP) 42 Policy Options Across All Sectors 8 Transportation and Land Use Policy Options Land Use Transit Intercity Travel Bike / Ped PAYD Pricing Technologies GHG Impact Analysis May GHG Emission Reduction Act Established agency implementation requirements and set 2020 target (25% below 2006) No funding; No sector-specific GHG emission targets Dec Submit Draft Implementation Plan Dec Final Implementation Plan Adopted General Assembly will Conduct a Mid-Course Review Maryland Department of Transportation

26 MDOT s Draft Implementation Status Report - Analysis Update 2006 inventory and 2020 base forecast Establish transportation sector GHG emissions reduction target GHG emissions assessment by Category (GHG reductions and costs) 1. Technology and fuel programs 2. Open and funded projects (CTP, MPO TIPs/LRTPs) 3. TERMS open and funded Transportation and Land Use (TLU) strategies Maryland Department of Transportation

27 Maryland DOT Climate Action Implementation Status Report Preliminary GHG Emissions Modeling Results mmt CO 2 e Base 2020 forecast National CAFE Standard Maryland Clean Car Renewable Fuels Standard Funded Plans and Programs % Reduction Goal Target Shortfall mmt Funded TERMS TLU Policy Options (range of strategies) Maryland Department of Transportation

28 MDOT s Draft Implementation Status Report - Results Percent of mobile source GHG emissions target reduction in 2020: 40% - National Fuel Economy Standards, MD Clean Car, National Renewable Fuel Standards 17% - MD Plans and Programs and TERMs 13 25% - TLU policy options (44 strategies capable of implementation by 2020) 18 30% - Remaining target shortfall Maryland Department of Transportation

29 Metropolitan Washington COG (MWCOG) Climate Change Report and Scenario Planning

30 Source: MWCOG, April 2010

31 Source: MWCOG, April 2010

32 Source: MWCOG, April 2010

33 Source: MWCOG, April 2010

34 SHRP 2 C09: Incorporating GHG Emissions Into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process Develop strategies for incorporating GHG emissions in key points of decision-making framework Identify relevant information and materials that are already produced by the transportation planning process and the gaps that exist for GHG analysis Prepare materials and methods for dealing with these gaps Prepare a Practitioner s Handbook that can be used in the planning and decision making process

35 SHRP 2 C 09 Practitioners Guide State workshops to test strategies Finalize GHG strategy for each key decision point and incorporate in handbook/web tool Provide user with information on how to incorporate GHG considerations Roles and responsibilities Supportive data, tools, and technology Associated best practices Project complete fall 2010

36 For More Information Moving Cooler: Maryland Climate Action Plan: MWCOG What Would it Take : SHRP 2 Collaborative Decision Making: David Jackson, AICP Cambridge Systematics, Inc. djackson@camsys.com