TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #3

Transcription

1 TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #3 Date: November 2, 2005 Project #: 6389 To: US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project Management Team (PMT) From: Sonia Hennum, P.E., Andrew Cibor, E.I.T., & Julia Kuhn, P.E. Project: US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Subject: 2025 Future Forecast Base Case Analysis This memorandum summarizes the methodology used to develop and analyze forecast future conditions for the US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan. It documents the future baseline conditions analysis under a no-build scenario and identifies how the US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan study area roadways and intersections will operate upon an assumption of regional development through year 2025 and no improvements to the transportation network beyond those currently under construction or programmed by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), the City of Bend, and Deschutes County. Included in this memorandum is a description of the forecast development methodology, an assessment of forecast study area growth rates and assumed development, assumed future planned transportation infrastructure improvements within the study area, and an assessment of the resulting traffic operations along the roadways and intersections located within the study area. FUTURE FORECAST DEVELOPMENT As outlined in this project s statement of work, a new Bend Area Travel Demand Model is currently in the process of being developed and refined by ODOT s Transportation Planning & Analysis Unit (TPAU). Based on the latest information from TPAU, the model will not be ready for application before early As such, the Project Management Team (PMT) requested that future design year volumes be developed manually so that the project work could proceed prior to the model completion. Based on the PMT s direction, the proposed methodology for future forecast volume development (outlined in detail below) incorporated existing growth trends, an assessment of the trip generation potential of undeveloped parcels in the study area, and ODOT s Cumulative Analysis procedure. FILENAME: H:\projfile\6389\reports\future_base_case\future forecast base case_final.mem.doc

2 US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project #: 6389 November 2, 2005 Page 2 Basic Steps of Forecasting Methodology To determine the future forecast volumes in the study area, four factors were considered: traffic from new development, growth in existing local traffic, regional background traffic growth, and planned transportation system improvements and connections. The proposed procedure for developing the future forecast volumes followed these basic steps: 1. Identify the Study Area & Divide into Sub Zones This was accomplished by reviewing the existing land use and transportation systems within the study area, as well as information provided from the City of Bend and TPAU regarding the proposed TAZ structure developed for the new model. 2. Determine Each Zone s Future Trip Productions & Attractions This was accomplished by reviewing remaining buildable lands within the study area, as well as coordination with the land use assumptions being incorporated into the future scenarios of the new MPO model. The future land use assumptions established by the City of Bend for development of the model were obtained and then ITE trip generation rates were used to convert the land use information to productions and attractions for each sub zone. 3. Assess Percentage of External-External (X-X) Trips for the Study Area Establishing the percentage of the various trip types can be completed either by referencing an origin-destination study or querying the existing model for the sole purpose of determining how it is allocating trips within the study area (not for growth projections). As completion of an O-D survey is beyond the scope of this project, the PMT agreed that using the existing Bend Area model for this purpose was appropriate for this project. 4. Calculate the Increase in X-X, X-I, and I-X Trips & Distribute A base growth rate was used to calculate total growth in external trips (see attached Cumulative Analysis example provide by TPAU). The increase in X-X trips was determined based on the percentages determined from Step 3. The increase in X-I (external-internal) and I-X (internal-external) trips (combined) was determined by subtracting the number new X-X trips from the total number of new external trips. X-I and I-X Trips were distributed based on a gravity model concept where the probability of each zone s attraction or production of trips is determined by dividing each zone s new attraction/production trips by the study area s total new attraction/production trips. 5. Calculate the Remaining I-I Trips & Distribute After the increased X-I and I-X trips has been distributed to each zone, the leftover new attraction or production trips for each zone are internal-internal trips. Internal-internal trips were distributed to each zone based on the same gravity model concept. Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Boise, Idaho

3 US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project #: 6389 November 2, 2005 Page 3 6. Assign Trips to the Study Area System The assignment of forecast volumes to turning movements at each of the study intersections was applied based on an analysis of future destinations, future traffic volume balance, existing turning movements, and a comparison of local and regional traffic. In addition, planned transportation system improvements (such as extensions or connections) that may redirect local or regional traffic were reviewed through the trip assignment process to account for their effect on travel patterns. While the project has been moving forward with the forecast developed as described above, if future forecast volumes from the TPAU model become available during the project work, a sensitivity analysis and comparison of the two sources will be conducted to ensure the integrity of the proposed concept solutions. Special Considerations Traffic from New Development Traffic from private developments that have recently received land use approvals, or pending approvals, was incorporated into the analysis, as well as to traffic associated with the long-term growth projected for buildable lands within the study area. For recently approved developments, this information was taken directly from trip assignments and assessed based on a percentage of completion for each of the projects. The new trips were conservatively balanced and applied to each of the study intersections where trip assignment data is not provided. Of particular note, the traffic estimates for the proposed Juniper Crossing (north-west quadrant of US 97/Cooley Road) and Phase 1 of the Juniper Ridge Master Plan development have been included in these forecasts. Table 1 outlines the trip generation assumptions that were included for Phase 1 of the Juniper Ridge Master Plan development. Table 1 Juniper Ridge Phase 1 Trip Generation Land Use Number of Employees/Students Daily Trips AM Peak Hour Trips PM Peak Hour Trips Light Industrial 1,192 3, Retail , ,404 Manufacturing 968 2, Government 512 6, College 3,500 4, Total 6,891 32,057 2,240 3,651 Internalization 3, Net New Trips 28,851 2,016 3,286 In addition, the City provided information in terms of a conservative phased build-out estimate for the Juniper Ridge Phase 1 site. It should be noted that current projections from the master plan process don t anticipate full build-out of Phase 1 until 2030, however, in order to ensure a Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Boise, Idaho

4 US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project #: 6389 November 2, 2005 Page 4 conservative analysis, full build-out was incorporated in the year 2025 projections as shown in Table 2. Table 2 Assumed Juniper Ridge Phase 1 Build-out Year Percent Build-out 15% 40% 70% 100% For other buildable lands, the consultant team worked with City of Bend and Deschutes County planning staff to identify the land use assumptions to be used. The analysis was conducted on a macro-level analysis, combining vacant land parcels into approximately twenty separate areas with simplified trip generation and trip distribution assumptions to determine likely build-out scenarios for the City during the planning horizon. The work already completed in this regard for the Bend MPO model development was used to the greatest extent possible to ensure consistency. Local Traffic Growth Local traffic growth in the study area was obtained from historical data for the study area. TPAU has indicated that historical growth has ranged from 2.5% to 3.5% on US 97, and 2.2% to 3.0% on US 20. The City of Bend typically assumes approximately three percent annual growth plus in-process development traffic within the City limits. The combination of the two factors often yields growth rates in excess of five to six percent per year. Given the fact that this methodology separately accounts for land development in the immediately vicinity as well as future regional trips, the traffic forecasts developed will be compared to this historical trend to conduct a reasonableness and validity check Regional Through Traffic Growth Growth along the highways in through traffic may increase disproportionately with local population growth due to factors such as limited travel options, increased tourism, and increased development in neighboring communities. Through traffic growth was applied to study intersections at specific movements only. Data required for estimates of through traffic growth was provided by ODOT staff and obtained from historical count recordings on the ODOT web site. Planned Transportation System Improvements Planned transportation system improvements include planned roadway extensions, widening, and new roadway connections that may redirect local or regional traffic. Studies of proposed improvements were reviewed and conservative assumptions were made to reassign traffic associated with these improvements. Direction regarding which planned transportation system improvements to account for in the study area was provided by Deschutes County, City of Bend, and ODOT staff and the PMT. Based on PMT direction, the following projects were included the future forecast Base Case (or no-build ) scenarios: Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Boise, Idaho

5 US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project #: 6389 November 2, 2005 Page 5 EmpireAvenue-27 th Street extension (both in the 2015 and 2025 base case analysis); New signal at Boyd Acres/Empire (both in the 2015 and 2025 base case analysis); Cooley Road widening between US 20 and US 97 to 3 lanes (both in the 2015 and 2025 base case analysis); Extension of Cooley Road to Deschutes Market Road (2025 base case analysis); Additional southbound lane on US 20 to Empire (2025 base case analysis); and Completion of the northbound US 97/Deschutes Market-Tumalo interchange ramps as outlined in the Deschutes County transportation plan. Trip Assignment Turning movements at each of the study intersections were applied based on an analysis of future destinations, future traffic volume balance, existing turning movements, and a comparison of local and regional traffic. Lastly, prior to finalization of future traffic volumes, each of the components was reviewed in detail to ensure that estimates are conservative and well balanced. In order to maintain a conservative analysis, no TDM reductions will be applied to the traffic volumes despite City plans to provide transit to the area within the 20-year analysis period. However trip internalization within mixed use zones, as well as within the study area, was accounted for where the combination of land uses will likely effect trip making behavior. As a final step, draft volumes were summarized and provided to the PMT for review and comment prior to preparing this final memorandum. FUTURE 2025 TRAFFIC VOLUMES Based on the methodology described in the previous section, year 2025 base case (or no-build ) traffic volume forecasts were developed as summarized in Figures 1 and 2 for the weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively. In comparing the 2025 traffic projections to existing traffic volumes, the forecast methodology resulted in a 65 to 70-percent growth in traffic volumes, on average, at the study intersections. Intersection Operations Analysis A traffic operations analysis was performed for the study intersections using the 2025 base case traffic volumes. The results of the operational analysis are also summarized in Figures 1 and 2. As can be seen from Figures 1 and 2, all study intersections with the exception of those along Tumalo Road and the US 97/Deschutes Market-Tumalo interchange are forecast to operate overcapacity or at unacceptable levels per current ODOT and City of Bend standards. Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Boise, Idaho

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8 US 97 & US 20 Refinement Plan Project #: 6389 November 2, 2005 Page 8 INTERIM YEAR 2015 TRAFFIC VOLUMES In order to assess the timing of roadway capacity needs, and interim year 2015 base case forecast was also developed. The year 2015 base case (or no-build ) traffic volume forecasts are summarized in Figures 3 and 4 for the weekday AM and PM peak hours, respectively. Intersection Operations Analysis The results of the traffic operational analysis for the interim year 2015 forecast are also summarized in Figures 3 and 4. As can be seen from Figures 3 and 4, the following study intersections are forecast to operate overcapacity or at unacceptable levels per current ODOT and City of Bend standards by the year 2015: US 20/Old Redmond-Bend Highway; US 20/Cooley Road; Cooley Road/Hunnell Road (South); Cooley Road/Hunnell Road (North); US 97/Cooley Road; US 97/Robal Road; Empire Avenue/3 rd Street; and Empire Avenue/Bend Parkway Ramps. SUMMARY On average, it is anticipated the study area will experience a 65 to 70-percent growth in traffic volumes over the 20-year planning horizon. This obviously results in numerous capacity needs for the existing transportation system network, many of which will be required within the next 10 years. The forecast developed here are now being used to investigate potential transportation improvement alternatives that will address these deficiencies and ensure that the overall transportation network will meet the needs of the study area through the 2025 horizon year. Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Boise, Idaho

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