Unit 12. Energy Yield II. Marcus Rennhofer : Energy Yield II

Transcription

1 Unit 12 Energy Yield II Marcus Rennhofer

2 Content Data quality comparison of tools measurement techniques measurement errors calibration chain Costs Scaling effects Origin of cost reduction Pay-back time of costs or energy Reduction of CO2

3 0. Energy Yield - Reminder

4 Reminder: Energy-Yield Performance Ratio Y F = t vo = E a P G0 [ kwh/kwp a ] = [ h/a ] full load hours Ea = annual energy yield (EAC fed into the grid) P G0 = PV nominal generator power Y R = annual radiation yield PR = Y F Y R

5 Reminder: Composition of the irradiance Influence on results of models

6 1. Data quality

7 Energy Forecast: problem or solved? Perovo Ukraine Activ-Solar Facility behavior Module behavior Modeling uncertainty in forecast Avancis Target: energy yield 1% deviation prediction time 1h

8 Tools under comparison Modeling of Test facility

9 Tools under comparison Beste Vorhersage aus über Simulationsvarianten (270 Modellketten an 30 Standorten) von PV-Sol-Expert: [-5%, +13%]

10 Environmental parameters - measurement T a T m E Ambient temperature Module temperature Irradiance Thermo couple PT100 2L/4L Pyranometer Star pyranometer Diode pyranometer PV-Module (stabilized) Pyrheliometer E l RH p v w I SC Spectrally resolved E Relative humidity Air pressure Wind speed Short circuit current Spectrometer Filtered pyranometer Filtered solar cell Semi conductor Pressure sensor (e.g.piezzo) Heated wire Ultra sonic anemometer Bowl-anemometer Shunt restistance

11 Measurement and prediction: accuracy Irradiance 3%-5% annual calibration ~ 2% Temperature technically +/- 0.1 K, real +/- 1-2 K Sun simulation class A: spectral 25%, Temp.: 2%, time: 2% ageing sensors age at a rate of (a-si): 0.5%-1.5% / a power induced degradation (PID) / seasonal effects Environmental impact spectral influence 0.1%-10% (mean 1%) wind cooling (convection) (1%-30%) Module power accredited Lab: 3% industry 3%-10% modeling annual yield prediction: 5%-15% weather data: 1%-5%

12 Calibration chain Primary standard 15 Absolute Cavity Radiometers (World Radiation Center Davos) (0.3%) Secundary standard Primary reference Pyrheliometer ( Davos, autumn, 3 weeks) Reference lamp (Planckian emitter) (1%) Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs (1.5%-2.5%) Secundary reference 1 Secundary reference 1 Secundary reference... Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs, Industry, facility) (2%-5%)

13 Measurement Diiffraction grating Spektrometer 2D-Ultrasonic anemometer Diode pyranometer

14 2. Costs

15 Example: System efficiency Can this work??? V. Quaschnig

16 Example: System efficiency

17 Example: Cost reduction

18 Learning curve of PV Costs decrease with increasing cumulative production: learning curve: K costs K 0 initial costs L learning factor p production P 0 initial prod K p = K 0 L ln 2 p p 0 10 * Produktion ½ Kosten

19 Cost index ($/kw) Learning curve of PV 1.5 Nuclear Reactors France % % interval % interval 0.5 mean learning rate (115 case studies): -20% per doubling PVs Japan % Number of doublings (installed capacity) 0.0 Nakicenovic (2006)

20 Nuclear power: complex, final risk of W.C.S.

21 Fossiles mainly fuelling Europe: e.g. Lignite Coal in GER Astrid Schneider, Solar architect

22 Origin of cost reduction Electricity costs decrease Production costs decrease & Electricity costs decrease Efficiency increases at the same production costs & Electricity costs decrease Life time increases at same production costs

23 Origin of cost reduction 5 4 4: Cr Si: New Generation 5: TF: New Gen. & Nano-Physics, QT

24 Costs of electricity C = I a + C var Costs of electricity [ / kwh elektr. ] Y F C costs per kwh I investment a annuity Y F full load hours [h] = [kwh/kw p ] C var running costs kwh [ /kwh] (~ 0.7%-1% I) annuity a z, N = 1 + z N z 1 + z N 1 z interest rate (2%-6%) N run time 20a-30a)

25 Pay back time Cost pay back time T k [a] = I[ ] Y F,fin. /a solaranlagen.org Y F,fin financial yield reduced by running costs Energy pay back time T E [a] = E production[kwh] Y F kwh/a E production total energy for production

26 Pay back time

27 CO2 reduction Conventional mix: 0.65 kg CO 2 / kwh Photovoltaik-web.de Bio mass: per t Bio mass and year: 1,5 t CO 2 bound 1,1 t O2 produced Ch. Krumphuber LK, ÖO 2009 Photovoltaics per kwp installed capacity and year 1 MWh energy produced (Middel Europe) 0.65 t CO 2 avoided 4-10 CO 2 -certificates saved

28 Cost reductiion vs. Electricity costs from the grid

29 Current facility costs in Austria (planning and installation) 5 kwp 10 kwp

30 Current facility costs

31 Example Austria: Residential facility: Investment 1800 EUR / kwp Yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Self consumption 40% (value ~0.2 ) Fed to grid: 60 % (value ~0.08 ) Pay off time: 14 a Residential facility and battery: battery 1200 EUR/ kwh *0,5 kwh/kwp investment PV: 1500 EUR / kwp Inves system: 2100 EUR / kwp yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Self consumation 70% (value ~0.2 ) Fed to grid: 30 % (value ~0.08 ) 16.6 ct / kwh yield 156 EUR /a Pay off time: 13,4 a Communal facility: investment 1500 EUR / kwp yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Life time: 25 a Running costs: 0.75% / a ageing: 20% nach 25 a Costs of electricity: 8 ct / kwh Nuclear power, linear calculated: Invest: 8000 EUR / kwp yield: 7000 kwh / kwp a Run time: 30 a Running costs: 0.5% / a Deposit and retreat: 1 G Costs of electricity : 4.8 ct (real costs approx. 11 ct)

32 Principles for the optimization of self-consumption Modelling of generator profile Peak shifting Storage Load Management Self consumption Power 2 gas E-Mobility Power 2 heat

33 Principles for the optimization of self-construction Load Shift loads in time of high irradiance Time independent processes Management control system Yield Shift PV-yield to high demand Orientation / Set up angle / Tracking system Storage Thermal storage Electrical storage E-Mobility

34 VISIT AIT-Laboratory PVS Arrival by: Subway U6 (floridsdorf) + S-Bahn (Siemensstrasse) Subway U1 (Kagraner Platz) + 31A (Heinrich von Buol Gasse)

35 Thank you for your attention!