Mitigation and Adaptation Studies
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- Joleen Shaw
- 5 years ago
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1 Oluwakemi Izomo
2 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies
3 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 7: Climate and Coastal Hazards Questions and Conclusions: How well do we know past and current changes: - We have comprehensive observations that document the variability of the system - Detecting changes in dynamics and system state is nevertheless difficult due to large variability - knowledge about changes in variables and underlying processes is evolving rapidly How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?
4 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies
5 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 8: Climate and Coastal Hazards, Public Health, Food Security
6 Mitigation and Adaptation Studies Class 8: Climate and Coastal Hazards, Public Health, Food Security Contents: Assignments Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards - (Detecting Changes) - Assessing Knowledge - Understanding the Processes and Causes - Predicting Future Changes - Having Foresight Public Health Food-Water-Energy Nexus - -
7 Understanding the Causes
8 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
9 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
10 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON
11 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON
12 Understanding the Causes 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? climate change 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus. IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON
13 Understanding the Causes
14 Understanding the Causes
15 Understanding the Causes
16 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change
17 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change
18 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change
19 Understanding the Causes
20 Understanding the Causes
21 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
22 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
23 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
24 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
25 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
26 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
27 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
28 Assignment 1 To what extent does the IPCC thoroughly address the drivers behind climate change, and how are these reflected in the Assessment Report? 2 Summarize the core challenges of climate change and sea level rise for public health. 3 Explain the main issues of the food-water-energy nexus.
29 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?
30 Assessing Knowledge How solid is our knowledge? Example sea level rise Accepted knowledge in 2000: Greenland: no significant contribution to sea 6.0 m Greenland level rise Antarctica: minor contribution 4.5 m West Antarctic Main contribution: steric changes Knowledge in 2016: Greenland: is contributing, is accelerating; increasing potential for a large contribution to sea level rise due to deep warm water around Greenland and impact of changes in atmospheric circulation. Antarctica: West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) will contribute 4.5 m How worried should we be? Contribution to Global Sea Level 800 Years? 100 Years? What should we be worried about?
31 Assessing Knowledge
32 Assessing Knowledge
33 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?
34 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?
35 Understanding the Processes
36 Understanding the Processes
37 Understanding the Processes
38 Understanding the Processes Local sea level is the result of many local, regional and global processes and can only be fully understood in a complex-system approach
39 Understanding the Processes
40 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface
41 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface Local Sea Level (LSL) changes = Sea Surface Height (SSH) changes - Land surface height (LSH) changes.
42 Understanding the Processes Local Sea Level: vertical distance between sea surface and land surface Local Sea Level (LSL) changes = Sea Surface Height (SSH) changes - Land surface height (LSH) changes. LSL(x,t) = SSH(x,t) - LSH(x,t)
43 Understanding the Processes
44 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part
45 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:
46 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:
47 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months:
48 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Separation at a period of about 2 months: Short-period variations are the result of local to regional processes
49 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part
50 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL
51 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL
52 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Important for projections of LSL Long-period variations are the result of local to global processes
53 Understanding the Processes LSL = short-period part + long-period part Low-Frequency part of the LSL equation: Comments on the relation between mass changes (exchange and redistribution) and LSL Important for projections of LSL Long-period variations are the result of local to global processes
54 Understanding the Processes
55 Understanding the Processes LSL change Load on ocean areas Load on land areas
56 Understanding the Processes LSL change All mass movements: - change the geoid Load on ocean areas - displace the ocean bottom vertically Load on land areas - redistribute the water masses in the ocean
57 Understanding the Processes Fingerprints of the large ice sheets Plag and Juettner, 2001
58 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes Greenland Antarctica Plag, 2006
59 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica Plag, 2006
60 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Plag, 2006
61 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Example global average: 1.14 mm/yr at tide gauges 0.90 mm/yr global average Plag, 2006
62 Understanding the Processes postglacial sea levels steric changes tide gauges Greenland Antarctica reconstructed LSL Greenland Ice sheet contribution: mm/yr Antarctica Ice sheet contribution: mm/yr Example global average: 1.14 mm/yr at tide gauges 0.90 mm/yr global average Plag, 2006
63 Understanding the Causes
64 Understanding the Causes
65 Understanding the Causes
66 Understanding the Causes
67 Understanding the Causes IN T ERGOV ERNMEN TA L PA NEL ON climate change
68 Understanding the Causes
69 Understanding the Causes
70 Understanding the Causes
71 Understanding the Causes
72 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?
73 Climate Change and Sea Level Hazards Hazards: Changes in means: - air temperature - precipitation - wind field/circulation - evapotranspiration - humidity - soil moisture - permafrost - sea and lake levels - inundation - river runoff - desertification - ice and snow cover Questions: Changes in extremes: - Storms (hurricanes, typhoons, tornados, thunderstorms) - Floods - Droughts - Heat Waves - Ice storms and snow fall Changes in dynamics and chemistry: - ocean circulation - atmospheric circulation - ocean temperature - ocean acidification - soil, air and water chemistry Changes in biosphere: - ecosystem health and services - migration - invasive species - extinction How well do we know the past and current changes? How well do we understand the processes? How well can we predict future changes Do we have foresight in terms of what might happen?