Overview of the WMO Commission for Climatology activities in the area of Climate Risk Management and Adaptation. E.M. Akenteva

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1 Overview of the WMO Commission for Climatology activities in the area of Climate Risk Management and Adaptation E.M. Akenteva Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet St. Petersburg, Russia Expert Team on Climate Risk Management WMO COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY

2 Standardized software ClimPACT with supplementary training material was developed by Expert Team on Climate Risk and Sector-specific Climate Indices to identify new impacts- driven indices relevant to climate - sensitive sectors, such as health, agriculture water, energy etc expertteam.php

3 Examples of impacts- driven indices for energy production Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile Value of 95 th percentile of TX Annual count when TX >= 30ºC Annual count when TX > = 35ºC Annual count of n consecutive days where both TX > 95th percentile and TN > 95th percentile Heat waves (number, duration, frequency, amplitude) Maximum number of consecutive days with RR<1mm Annual percentage of RR>95 th and >99 th percentiles Highest precipitation amount in an n-day period

4 Concept paper Improving Climate Risk Management at Local Level Techniques, Case Studies, Good Practices and Guidance for World Meteorological Organization Members was published in September, 2012 as a chapter in the book " Risk Management - Current Issues and Challenges".

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7 The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) in collaboration with a number of Ministries and Agencies prepared a package of documents concerning vulnerability assessment and elaboration of adaptation measures to climate variability and change: Assessment Reports on climate change and its consequences in Russian Federation (2008, 2014) Climate Doctrine (2009), Fifth and Sixth National Communications RF (2010, 2014) Guidelines on risk estimation and assessment of adverse effects of climate change for elaboration of adaptation measures (at the sectoral, regional and national levels) (2013).

8 Structure of Guidelines on risk estimation and assessment of adverse effects of climate change for elaboration of adaptation measures (at the sectoral, regional and national levels) : С П А С И Б О I. Definition of climate indicators and critical thresholds of their changes for economy sector or territory: major categories of potentially hazardous areas, facilities; З А definition В of appropriate Н И standard М climate А indicators Н И and Е! compilation of data time-series.

9 The tree of building construction and appropriate climate impact indexes

10 II. Joint analysis of climate indicators changes and loss and damage for current climate conditions: systematization of information about climate indicators anomalies and appropriate loss and damage; statistical generalization e.g. Bayes approach С П А С И Б О III. Evaluation of probable climate change impacts for economy sectors: assessment of intensity and frequency of climate indicators anomalies З А В Н И М А Н И Е! for future climate according to regional climate models; socio-economical projection for the given sector or territory; comparative evaluation of current and future loss and damage

11 Ranking of dangerous weather events according to urban infrastructure impact ( С П А С И Б О З А В Н И М А Н И Е!

12 IV. Assessment of climate related risk IPCC, 2012: Special report. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.

13 Economic risk associated with dangerous weather events and climate anomalies р event probability s i infrastructure site, km 2 s event area, km 2 S area of administrative region, km 2 t event duration (day) m population size in administrative region k aggressivity coefficient A GRP per capita

14 Aggressivity coefficient (K) С П А С И Б О З А В Н И М А Н И Е!

15 V. Risk tolerance assessment Risk management at the national level may be based on the concept of acceptable risk. С П А С И Б О The acceptable individual risk value is a country-specific solution that differs according to the socio-economic conditions. In Russia this value is great ( ): 10-4 for operating capacity; З 10А -5 for projects В under Н construction И М and designed А Н projects; И Е! 10-7 for nuclear sites.

16 VI. Elaboration of adaptation measures for infrastructure Hydrometeorological (informational) measures Forecast improving Early warning Specialized monitoring Climate risk hedging and insurance Updating of normative documents Construction, energy, transport Industry Technical measures Macroeconomical level Microeconomical level Change of infrastructure Energy savings and efficiency Operative measures Adaptation of urban areas etc

17 Economic assessment of adaptation options: - cost-benefit analysis (CBA). An adaptation option would represent a good investment if the aggregate benefits exceed the aggregate costs. CBA, in its simple form, does not cover all aspects: it fails to account for those costs and benefits that cannot be reflected in monetary terms, such as ecological impacts and impacts on health, - cost effectiveness analysis (CEA). The aim of the CEA is to find the least costly option or options for meeting selected physical targets. In contrast to CBA, the benefits are measured in units other than money, - multi-criteria analysis (MCA) has been developed to account for the fact that some effects cannot be measured, or cannot be coasted. With multicriteria analysis, a number of objectives are identified and each objective is given a weighting. Using this weighting, an overall score for each policy option is obtained, and the option with the highest score is selected. - real option analysis allows to consider uncertainty in decision-making process and estimate the economic value of the future flexibility created by interim climate policy, - method of overall economic valuation and adaptation options. It includes three stages: estimation of economic and climatic resources, assessment of adaptation investment attractiveness, adaptation decision making.

18 Vulnerable objects and processes towards climate variability and change in St. Petersburg and Leningrad District Character of observed or expected damage Adaptation measures 1.1. Accelerated ageing of infrastructure as a result of sharp variations in temperature and humidity, increase in number of temperature zero crossings Frequent accidents with power lines caused by ice loadings, gusts and others dangerous weather events 1.3. Increase in rain intensity that leads to flooding of urban infrastructure and failure in traffic Extreme and slow onset hydrological events (floods, rise of Ocean level) affecting coastline, ground and underground waters Updating of tailored climate information in standards, codes etc taking into account up-todate information. Development of new normative climate indexes. Relevant upgrading of municipal sewage system Territorial zoning according to flood level (permanent flooding, periodic flooding, under flooding), structural features of coastline and specific land use. Monitoring of ground and underground waters regime and chemistry Adaptation measures for permanent flooding include defense concrete construction, mixed sand-and-shingle dikes, erosion control measures taking into account adjoining coastlines features, object transfer.

19 Thank you for your attention!