AEO2013 key trends and changes for the buildings sectors

Transcription

1 AEO2013 key trends and changes for the buildings sectors For Energy Forecasting Group Annual Meeting April 17-18, 2013 Las Vegas, Nevada By Erin Boedecker, Team Leader, Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Overview What s new Highlights the big picture Residential sector results Commercial sector results Distributed generation Las Vegas, April 17-18,

3 NEMS Structure Represents energy supply, conversion, and demand in a unified, but modular system Detailed structural and process models in most energy sectors Oil and Gas Supply Module Macroeconomic Activity Module International Energy Activity Module Residential Demand Module Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module Coal Market Module Integrating Module New this year Commercial Demand Module Transportation Demand Module Renewables Module Electricity Market Module Liquid Fuels Market Module Industrial Demand Module Supply Conversion Demand Las Vegas, April 17-18,

4 NEMS buildings projects for AEO2013 Buildings projects extension to 2040 revised long-term weather assumptions photovoltaic cost path distributed generation parameters Residential projects begin to incorporate 2009 RECS data (consumption data was not available) lighting technology update equipment retirement methodology Commercial projects technology update for lighting, ventilation, and refrigeration equipment data center energy consumption Las Vegas, April 17-18,

5 AEO2013 includes a 30-year historical trend for degree day projections 4500 heating degree days 1800 cooling degree days AEO AEO AEO AEO = history = recent estimates of history + NOAA near-term forecast 2014 beyond = EIA projection using 30-year historical trend + population shifts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

6 AEO2013 includes updated DG parameters to better reflect recent trends Photovoltaic (PV) system menu costs have been updated 2010 system costs now based on Tracking the Sun IV (LBNL, 2011) reduced future costs based on NREL bottom-up potential costs although 2020 costs not directly incorporated Residential systems now require 8 years of positive cash flow Penetration limit into existing commercial floorspace has increased to one-tenth of penetration into new construction (overall cap of 0.5% of existing floorspace/year unchanged) Program-driven commercial PV penetration has increased between 2011 and 2016 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

7 AEO2013 updates result in additional buildings PV capacity, especially in the commercial sector generating capacity, gigawatts AEO residential commercial AEO2012 AEO AEO Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

8 Residential equipment survival function now follows a Weibull shape example equipment class: portion of surviving equipment in each year 100% 75% 50% 25% Linear Weibull Previous method used linear decay between minimum and maximum lifetime values Weibull shapes developed to match medians and slopes of previous linear functions 0% age of equipment in years Las Vegas, April 17-18,

9 Highlights Las Vegas, April 17-18,

10 Little change in sector growth residential households, millions of units commercial floorspace, billion square feet AEO2013 AEO AEO2013 ~= AEO Real disposable personal income down 2.6% by 2035 relative to AEO2012 Residential growth in both single-family and multifamily housing Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

11 AEO2013 electricity prices are slightly lower than in AEO2012 $2011 per million Btu $2011 per million Btu AEO AEO2013 AEO electricity AEO natural gas AEO2013 AEO AEO2012 AEO Residential Commercial Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

12 Residential featured results Las Vegas, April 17-18,

13 Residential fuel shares are fairly stable delivered consumption by fuel, quadrillion Btu electricity 4 natural gas 2 distillate fuel oil other liquids 0 coal + wood Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

14 Residential consumption dominated by HVAC percent of delivered energy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% other lighting HVAC 50% 40% 30% water heating 20% 10% TV + PC kitchen + laundry 0% Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

15 AEO2013 reflects 2009 RECS appliance penetration in new construction 2035 equipment stock, millions of units 200 AEO2012 AEO central room electric dryer dishwasher freezer refrigerator -----air conditioner----- Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

16 Updated lighting characterization affects residential purchases purchases of general service bulbs, millions 2,000 1,600 1,200 New lighting technology menu based on report by Navigant Consulting Includes EISA2007 Tier II standard No incandescent bulbs available after 2020 standard CFL incandescent LED Longer lasting bulbs lead to fewer purchases Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

17 Miscellaneous electronics dominate household electricity growth residential electricity consumption average annual percent change Lighting DVD ClothesWash PC PowerSupply SecHeating Freezer FurnaceFans CeilingFan Refrigerator HomeAudio Heating Cooling HotWater AllUses DishWash CoffeeMaker TV Dryer Microwave VideoGame Cooking SecuritySys Rechargeable Dehumid Spas Set-top Electric Other households (1.0 percent per year) Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

18 Declining electricity use for residential lighting partially offsets increases for other uses change in annual residential electricity sales, billion kilowatthours Lighting -75 TV + PC 30 Water Heating 31 Kitchen + Laundry 62 HVAC 91 Other 204 Source: Annual Energy Outlook Las Vegas, April 17-18,

19 Commercial featured results Las Vegas, April 17-18,

20 Electricity is the fasted growing commercial energy source in the AEO2013 Reference case delivered consumption by fuel, quadrillion Btu electricity 4 2 natural gas distillate fuel oil other liquids 0 coal + biomass Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

21 Commercial space conditioning loses share to other percent of delivered energy 100% 90% 80% other 70% 60% 50% HVAC 40% 30% 20% lighting office equipment 10% water heating 0% cooking + refrigeration Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

22 Commercial electricity growth is concentrated in miscellaneous electricity loads (MELs) commercial electricity consumption average annual percent change Elevators/Escalators Laundry Fume Hoods Heating Water Heating Cooking Lighting Other Medical Refrigeration Transformers Cooling Office Equip - PCs Ventilation All Uses Nonbuilding Uses Office Equip - NonPCs Coffee Brewers Electric vehicles Medical Imaging Electric Other Source: Annual Energy Outlook commercial floorspace (1.0 percent per year) Las Vegas, April 17-18,

23 Updated characterization leads to adoption of LED technologies in the commercial sector commercial lighting service demand giga-lumen-years metal halide halogen LED New lighting technology menu based on report by Navigant Consulting Includes EISA2007 Tier II standard No incandescent bulbs available after 2020 standard fluorescent LEDs provide 39% of commercial lighting service in 2040 incandescent CFL Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

24 Updated PC shipments and data center assumptions limit office equipment contribution to electricity sales change in annual commercial electricity sales, billion kilowatthours Lighting Heating Elevators/Escalators Water Heating Fume Hoods Cooking Laundry Other Medical Refrigeration Coffee Brewers Transformers Electric vehicles Medical Imaging Office Equip - PCs Cooling Office Equip - NonPCs Ventilation Nonbuilding Uses Electric Other Source: Annual Energy Outlook Las Vegas, April 17-18,

25 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Today in Energy Las Vegas, April 17-18,

26 Supplemental slides Las Vegas, April 17-18,

27 AEO2013 distributed PV menu characteristics Year of Introduction Average Generating Capacity (kw DC ) Electrical Efficiency Installed Capital Cost (2009$ per kw DC ) Residential $7,200 Commercial $4, $3, $3, $6, $4, $3, $3,151 Las Vegas, April 17-18,

28 Dynamic population weights reflect how regional shifts in the U.S. population affect weather-related energy consumption Note: The static line reflects heating degree days (HDD) weighted by fixed state-level populations from the 2000 Census. The dynamic line reflects HDD weighted by state populations for each individual year. HDD for 2012 include published historical data through September 2012 and NOAA projections for the remaining months. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Census Bureau. Las Vegas, April 17-18,