Common Road to 2050: Energy Scenarios Dr. Catalina Spataru

Transcription

1 Common Road to 2050: Energy Scenarios Dr. Catalina Spataru

2 Aims of this work Analyse the role of different energy resources in order to reduce system costs and emissions Review & understand existing energy scenarios studies Highlight challenges and propose a horizon time framework for action to manage various resources integration. Explore options which reduce carbon emissions and analyse potential feasible options for energy system development Discuss policies needed for different energy industries (gas, coal, oil, nuclear, wind and other renewables industries) to enable different development trajectories

3 Comparison of 3 UK Scenario studies published in 2006 with results for 2010 ILEX study for WWF, 2006 BAU Scenario PowerSwitch Policy Delivered Scenario PowerSwitch Policy Evolution Scenario DTI study, 2006 High fossil fuel price case Two Central fossil fuel price cases Low fossil Fuel price case Friends of Earth study, 2006 good gas, slow gas good mix, slow mix good coal, slow coal GB electricity market model DTI Energy Model FOE model

4 Scenarios Results Comparison

5 Scenarios Results Comparison

6 Proposed Descriptive Scenarios ENP2050 Kalinka & Zorba Two scenarios pathways ZORBA: predominant renewables (with storage) KALINKA: predominant FF (with CCS) + nuclear & 4 Steps: Black step 2020 Grey step 2030 Blue step 2040 Green step 2050

7 Results KALINKA and ZORBA

8 Results Kalinka and Zorba Zorba manages to achieve the 2050 target (80% reduction)

9 Selected studies from the literature review compared with ENP 2050 Scenarios Name of Study Author & year Projection Years Electricity Network Scenarios for 2050 UK Energy and CO2 Emissions The balance of power. Reducing CO2 emissions from the UK power sector A bright future Friends of the Earth s electricity sector model for 2030 Elders et al DTI, ILEX, , 2016, 2020, 2025 Friends of the Earth, Closing the Energy Gap WWF, ; Pathways Analysis HM Government, 2010 UK Future Energy Scenarios The UK Energy System in 2050: Comparing Low- Carbon, Resilient Scenarios (UKERC Scenarios) National Grid Scenarios, ; 2050 UKERC, ; 2050

10 Comparison of Kalinka and Zorba with other scenarios with projections for

11 Key Conclusions In existing scenarios studies significant variation was noted in most metrics There is a lack of certainty in producing future scenarios that produce results over even the shortest time horizons In our scenarios, whilst both Kalinka and Zorba achieve long-term decarbonisation and share commonalities, they each result from different short-term priorities of the energy trilemma - energy security, energy affordability, and emission mitigation. Zorba projects a more secure energy system with reduced imports, but with higher levels of capital investments, while Kalinka requires lower levels of investments A hybridised approach is most desired

12 Thank you for your attention! Contact: For more information on the study please go to London