INAGA Geothermal Meeting Bali 2007

Transcription

1 INAGA Gethermal Meeting Bali 2007 Wrld Trends in Gethermal Jim Lawless Past President, NZ Gethermal Assciatin Chairman, Western Pacific Reginal Branch f Internatinal Gethermal Assciatin Technlgy Crdinatr, SKM

2 Presentatin utline > Recent wrld-wide trends in gethermal research and develpment Pace f develpment Csts Regulatry and Plicy incentives New Technlgy Parties Invlved > The extent t which these are currently applicable t Indnesia (in my pinin) and why And a few cmparisns t New Zealand

3 Rate f develpment > Over the past 5 years, installed gethermal capacity has grwn wrldwide by abut: 11 % fr direct use 6 % fr electricity generatin > Applicability t Indnesia: likely that there will be far mre rapid grwth in electricity than direct use because f: Climate - n need fr heating, plenty f sun fr drying prduce Relatively cheap electricity and fssil fuels (same in NZ) > But: There is scpe fr direct space cling Gethermal turism in Indnesia culd be further develped

4 Csts > Wrldwide, cmmdity prices are high and rising, including steel, cpper etc., largely driven by demand in China > Oil prices high recent levelling ff prbably just temprary > Gethermal pwer plant prices increasing because f material cst, but partially ffset by cmpetitin and technical imprvements in existing plant types But new types f technlgy are mre expensive n a per MW basis as yet > Drilling csts rising sharply because f demand n rigs fr il, AND increasing csts fr cnsumables

5 Csts implicatins fr Indnesia > Pwer plant prices in Indnesia driven by internatinal markets, s rising smewhat > There is a strng drilling industry in Indnesia which helps, but csts still rising > Delivery time fr well cnsumables can be an issue > Overall effect: csts f gethermal develpment increasing Cmparisn with NZ: recent studies suggest prjects need a pwer price abut 50% higher than 10 years ag may be different figure in RI, but similar utcme

6 Regulatry and Plicy Incentives > Kyt Prtcl Prvides financial incentives t gethermal prjects in Indnesia thrugh the CDM > Other regulatry measures t prmte renewal energy/reduce carbn emissins Scpe and effectiveness varies widely Nne in Indnesia, effectively nne in NZ Direct impact n Indnesia small Indirect impact significant thrugh Prmting new technlgies Bringing new players int the market e.g Australians

7 Effects f plicy n pwer plants > Very high pwer prices are being paid fr electricity frm renewable surces in sme cuntries e.g Germany : > 20 USc/kWh with 20 year cntracts > This has changed the nature f gethermal prjects that are feasible bth at the lw and high temperature ends f the range

8 New lw temperature pwer plants > Pwer plants are nw cmmercially available t perate n much lwer temperature resurces than 10 years ag- e.g Kalina type > We can expect prices t fall and reliability t rise as the trend cntinues > Plants are als nw available in smaller unit sizes : e.g < 1 MWe > But at a cst: stand-alne plants perating n 150 C fluid are unlikely t be ecnmic in Indnesia (r NZ) in the freseeable future

9 Scpe fr use f small/ lw temperature plants in Indnesia > Retrfitted t existing schemes ( bttming plant) where the fluid is in a sense free e.g Wairakei binary 14.5 MWe Requires dealing with silica depsitin, but technlgy is nw well established fr that > Small schemes in remte area where alternative pwer surces are expensive If e.g. nly 5 MW is needed, n need t drill deeply r in the highest temperature part f the resurce - reduces risks and csts

10 Deep/high temperature resurces, EGS > Research prjects are underway int drilling >4 km, >350 C > EGS r HDR prjects in areas withut natural cnvective systems > Bth much mre expensive/risky than cnventinal current prjects, s nt advantageus r necessary in Indnesia where there is a wealth f high temperature natural cnvective systems > May be sme indirect spin-ffs in drilling technlgy etc.

11 Use f secnd hand plant > Despite new, mre efficient plant becming available, it is the verall thrugh-life cst per GWh that drives cmmercial peratrs > Still a lt f interest in using secnd hand plant e.g: Ex Geysers: e.g. Pihipi in NZ Ex marine applicatins: e.g Lihir in PNG > Advantages bth in cst and delivery time > Lw turbine inlet pressures may be ffset by high well deliverabilities

12 Other new technlgies > Imprvements in Gescience and Reservir Engineering, e.g MT mdeling FMI tls Micr-seismic (passive) surveys > Changes evlutinary rather than revlutinary > Sme Indnesian prjects already making use f state f the art techniques

13 New players > Main gethermal develpers in the past have been Gvernment agencies e.g PLN, PERTAMINA, PNOC Utilities e.g. Cntact Energy in NZ Multinatinal il cmpanies e.g. Chevrn Equipment suppliers e.g. Ormat > Plices prmting renewable energy in sme cuntries have brught new cuntries/cmpanies t the gethermal scene, e.g. Germany, Australia, Canada They are tapping int new surces f funding, especially capital markets with a strng mining backgrund May bring a different apprach t investment and risk