RECENT HARM, PROBLEMATIC IMPACTS,

Transcription

1 RECENT HARM, PROBLEMATIC IMPACTS, AND SOCIALLY FEASIBLE ADAPTATION OPTIONS TO HEATWAVES AND HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN NEW YORK CITY Dr. Diana Reckien Assistant Professor for Climate Change, University of Twente Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC)

2 Outline of the talk 1. Climate change and New York City (NYC) Current socio-economic, location and climate characteristics Future climate change (CC) impact projections Rationale and aims of this study: Harm, impact perception, adaptation responsibilities as seen by residents 2. Data and methods THIS STUDY: Questionnaire survey: when, where, how 3. Results Recent harm and damage Impacts and problems Adaptation sectors and responsibilities 4. Discussion and Conclusion Implications for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) 2

3 1. CC and NYC: Current characteristics New York City is a prime example of a large, diverse and complex city: Population in City (2014): 8,491,079 inh.; in metropolitan region: 19,746,227 inh.(united States Census Bureau 2015). Located directly on the Atlantic coast, at mouth of the Hudson River into New York Bay (approximately N W); divided by five boroughs four are (parts of) islands extensive coastline. Climate: temperate, semi-humid, maritime climate (Lauer and Frankenberg 1992) = cool and damp winters and hot and humid summers. Average of 1189 mm of precipitation per year ( ) (The Weissman Center for International Business 2015), relatively evenly across the year. Hurricanes can affect NYC in summer (the hurricane season lasts from 1 June to 30 November), e.g. Hurricane Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011), and Nor easters in winter. NYC is prone to heatwaves, usually accompanied by high humidity (Rosenzweig and Solecki 2010). 3

4 1. CC and NYC: Future impact projections Climate projections for NYC: NYC in 2050 could have a climate similar to that of present-day St. Louis (Kalkstein and Greene 1997). Projections suggest that heat waves (three or more consecutive days with maximum temperature exceeding 90 F (~32 C)) will approximately triple in frequency by 2100 compared to now (Horton, Gornitz et al. 2011). Heat-related deaths are expected to increase significantly in NYC, potentially by 47-95% with a mean of 70% in excess heatrelated deaths for the NYC area from 1990 to 2050 (Knowlton et al., 2007). Precipitation is expected to decrease overall for the North- Eastern region of the US (Blake, Khanbilvardi et al. 2000). However, increases in winter precipitation may put a burden on areas that are already exposed to flooding (Horton, Gornitz et al. 2010). Heat impacts potentially gain importance 4

5 1. CC and NYC: Rationale and aims of this study Despite a number of climate change, impact and adaptation studies conducted for the city (Solecki 2012) these do not generally include interviews with people. To my knowledge there are no studies that involved assessing the impacts of extreme weather events on NYC residents, let alone on the degree of burden for different social groups and across the city. This study aims to generate knowledge on CC impacts as perceived by residents important for targeted, effective CC adaptation planning. However, adaptation might not only be understood as a duty or mandate of policy and planning processes, but also as shared responsibility and concerted efforts among planning, policy and residents. The study elicits the views of the residents on the recent damage, impact distribution, adaptation sectors and assumed adaptation responsibility. 5

6 NYC Planning documents and CC assessments

7 2. Data and methods: THIS STUDY Main data source: Online questionnaire survey: Conducted at Columbia University's Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED): IRB-AAAK2162 Interviewees asked to report on impacts of the extreme weather event, adaptation responsibility, adaptation sectors, and frequently used information channels/ sources for disaster-related/ adaptation information. (Not reported: study was conducted to elicit interdependencies between impacts in form of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM)) Weather events investigated: heat waves and heavy rainstorms ; addressed in a similar fashion subsequently, controlling for order effects. Time: Conducted ; survey lasted for ~25 min; Survey Provider: Qualtrics, including their software and sample population Compensation: yes, according to Qualtrics regulations (total 12 US$ per resp.) Population: 762 completed and valid questionnaires 7

8 2. Data and methods: THIS STUDY Sample distribution: Completed questionnaire responses across boroughs Aim was 200 per borough and 80 from Staten Island; lower N per borough are due to incomplete responses Borough Responses N % of total respondents Total borough population (07/ 2012 est) Bronx % 1,619, % Booklyn % 1,408, % Manhattan % 2,565, % Queens % 2,272, % Staten Island 80 10% 470, % NYC % 8,336, % Table 1: Sample distribution across NYC boroughs. Data: Author. Source: Own draft. % of total population 8

9 2. Data and methods: THIS STUDY Sample distribution: Age (critical for online studies) and residence in NYC 9

10 3. Results: Recent harm and damage Recent was defined as the previous 10 years, i.e to Question: In the last 10 years, did you personally experience any harm during heat waves/ heavy rainstorms? -- harm as general notion Answers: pre-given, partly-used damage as specific to physical structures and visible impacts 10

11 3. Results: Impacts and problems Question: Please think about the consequences of heat waves/ heavy rainstorms in New York City, i.e. consequences of a prolonged period of excessive heat. What are aspects of consequences on your family, your neighborhood, the city and how do heat waves/ heavy rainstorms affect you personally? Think about how your life is impacted by heat waves/ heavy rainstorms and why. List key words and/or small groups of words. Fill in as many as you remember; but, it is not necessary to fill all lines. Answer: 8 aspects/ impacts could be given as free text Question: How much does each aspect personally affect you? Answer: Five point scale (1) affects me very much; (2) affects me somewhat; (3) affects me not very much; (4) affects me not at all; (5) don t know. Categories (1) and (2) have been summarized as personal problems in Fig. 3. General impacts and personal problems were grouped into sectors or classes. Presented results (Fig. 3) relate to answers of 80 respondents in each borough; randomly selected in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens to reach similarity with Staten Island important for cross-borough comparisons. 11

12 3. Results: Impacts and problems I Question: Please think about the consequences of heat waves/ heavy rainstorms in NYC, i.e...[explanation]. What are aspects of consequences on your family, your neighborhood, the city and how do heat waves/ heavy rainstorms affect you personally? Think about how your life is impacted by heat waves/ heavy rainstorms and why. List key words and/or small groups of words. Fill in as many as you remember; but, it is not necessary to fill all lines. Answer: max. 8 aspects/ impacts as free text; later grouped into sectors/ classes. 12

13 3. Results: Impacts and problems II Additional question: How much does each aspect personally affect you? Answer: Five point scale (1) affects me very much; (2) affects me somewhat; (3) affects me not very much; (4) affects me not at all; (5) don t know. Categories (1) and (2) have been summarized as personal problems in Fig. 3. General impacts and personal problems were grouped into sectors or classes. 13

14 3. Results: Impacts and problems across boroughs I Sample: same randomly selected 80 respondents from each borough Heat impacts Heat problems 14

15 3. Results: Impacts and problems across boroughs II Sample: same randomly selected 80 respondents from each borough Rain impacts Rain problems 15

16 3. Results: Adaptation sectors and responsibilities Question: The federal government is encouraging communities to prepare for the impacts of extreme weather events so that people and property are protected. How important do you think it is for New York City to take steps to protect the following from heat waves/ heavy rainstorms? Answers: pre-given classes on 5-partite scale, see figure 16

17 3. Results: Adaptation sectors II Heat waves: electricity system, the water supply, and public health important; not very important to improve the building stock, expand urban greenery and parks Remarkable, as e.g. heat in homes can be reduced by air-conditioning OR adjustments in the building design, construction, insulation, etc. Apparently, little awareness for alternative heat reduction measures. Heavy rain: important to improve drainage and sewage, subway and rail, and electricity system; no need seen for urban greenery and parks, & building stock. Adaptation is heavily associated with infrastructural adjustments It is important to educate residents on alternative, e.g. soft measures In general, adaptation necessities for heat waves are smaller than for heavy rain. Potentially, heat wave impacts are perceived as a private burden without many intervention and adaptation possibilities. 17

18 3. Results: Adaptation responsibility I Question: Do you think citizens themselves should be doing more or less to protect themselves from the impacts of heat waves/ heavy rainstorms? Answers: pre-given, 5-point scale. Respondents see substantial adaptation responsibility with residents, too. However currently doing the right amount selected by more respondents than much more many don t see more responsibility with themselves (others; no need). particularly for heat: respondents see few possibilities to alter their situation during heat waves. 18

19 4. Discussion and Conclusion Impacts: In contrast to recent damage and harm, which was larger for rain events, respondents report larger personal problems from heat waves. Heat impacts are similar but problems differ across boroughs; Rain is the opposite: impacts are different, problems are more similar across at least 3 boroughs (MH, QU, BX) and relate to traffic issues Surprisingly BR and SI do not report many personal problems during rain. Adaptation: For heat: electricity system is seen as main remedy Little awareness for alternative heat reduction measures, apart from air-conditioning. For rain: Adaptation is heavily associated with infrastructural adjustments Greenery is not mentioned often for both Important to educate residents on alternative, e.g. soft measures. Adaptation responsibility of residents acknowledged, but particularly heat seems to be perceived as private burden without many adaptation possibilities. Important outcome asking for an awareness raising. 19

20 RECENT HARM, PROBLEMATIC IMPACTS, AND SOCIALLY FEASIBLE ADAPTATION OPTIONS TO HEATWAVES AND HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN NEW YORK CITY Dr. Diana Reckien Assistant Professor for Climate Change, University of Twente Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) Thank you. 20