Past and future non- CO 2 emissions for IPCC AR5. Jean- François Lamarque NCAR Boulder, CO USA On behalf of the IPCC- AR5 Emission team

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1 Past and future non- CO 2 emissions for IPCC AR5 Jean- François Lamarque NCAR Boulder, CO USA On behalf of the IPCC- AR5 Emission team

2 What was available in AR- 4! Emissions from A1B scenario From Shindell et al., JGR, 2008

3 Amsterdam Sept meenng 4 RCPs: 2100 Target in W/m 2

4 RepresentaNve emission pathways All selected from exisnng literature (but updated with model versions and base year data) Span a wide range of different possible futures and trajectory shapes. From D. van Vuuren

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6 Amsterdam Sept meenng 4 RCPs: 2100 Target in W/m 2 Emissions every 10 years (0.5 ) : for each RCP ConcentraNon of radianvely- acnve gases and aerosols every 10 years Make those available on a decadal basis

7 Requirements Variable Units Spatial scale Concentrations Greenhouse gases CO 2 (fossil fuel, industrial, land use change) Regional and sectoral emissions ppm and Pg/yr Global average Sum CH 4 ppb and Tg/yr Global average Grid 1 N 2 O ppb and Tg/yr Global average Sum HFCs 2 ppb and Tg/yr Global average Sum PFCs 2 ppb and Tg/yr Global average Sum CFCs 2 ppb and Tg/yr Global average Sum SF 6 ppb and Tg/yr Global average Sum Aerosols 2 Sulfur (SO 2 ) Tg/yr Generated by CM Grid community 3 Black Carbon (BC) Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 Organic Carbon (OC) Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 Chemically active gases CO Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 NO x Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 VOCs 2 Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 NH 3 Tg/yr Generated by CM community 3 Grid Grid Grid Grid Grid Grid Grid is 0.5

8 How to build those emissions? InternaNonal collaboranon to provide decadal emissions , consistent across 2000, for anthropogenic (land, ship and aircrac) and biomass burning emissions of ozone precursors, aerosols and ODSs for each RCP Emission Databases Integrated Assessment Models

9 Process Workshop in May 2008 (funded by ACCENT) with representanves from global emission inventories and IAMs Focus on regional and sectoral analysis of exisnng inventories Use regional informanon where available (EPA/ EMEP for example), global inventories otherwise Make emissions useful for variety of chemistry modeling efforts (VOC split for example)

10 Team 1. T. Bond 2. V. Eyring 3. C. Granier 4. A. Heil 5. M. Kainuma 6. Z. Klimont 7. J.-F. Lamarque 8. D. Lee 9. C. Liousse 10. A. Mieville 11. B. Owen 12. K. Riahi 13. M. Schultz 14. S. Smith 15. E. Stehfest 16. A. Thomson 17. J. Van Aardenne 18. D. Van Vuuren

11 Anchor point: emissions in 2000 HarmonizaNon 12 sectors 40 regions Anthropogenic: combinanon of global and regional datasets (J. van Aardenne, T. Bond/C. Liousse, S. Smith) Biomass burning: Average from GFED (C. Granier/A. Mieville/M. Schultz) Aircrac and shipping: QUANTIFY (V. Eyring/D. Lee/S. Smith)

12 Sectors for harmonizanon CH 4 SO x BC OC CO NO x VOC NH 3 1. Air Transportation 2. International Shipping 3. Other transportation 4. Energy production / conversion. 5. Solvents 6. Waste (landfills, waste water) 7. Industry (combustion and process emissions) 8. Buildings (Residential and Commercial) 9. Ag. waste burning on fields 10. Agriculture 11. Grassland burning 12. Forest burning

13 Historical emissions reconstrucnon based on EDGAR- HYDE ( extension ), RETRO ( ) and our year 2000 emissions Use scaling for each sector/region/species Transportation sector for USA: CO emissions RETRO Combined EDGAR-HYDE

14 Historical anthropogenic emissions

15 Historical biomass burning emissions See A. Mieville/C. Granier s talk this afternoon

16 Historical biomass burning emissions

17 Gridding procedures Use year 2000 sectoral grids (includes locanon point sources) Between 1950 and 1980, use weighted- mean between sectoral grid and populanon- based grid Before 1950, populanon- based only

18 Horizontal resolunon: 0.5- degree Total (anthro+bb+shipping) NOx emissions : kg/m 2 /s

19 Future emissions: example

20 Emissions Status : available since July for all reacnve gases and aerosols (1850 and 2000 earlier) on Julich anonymous cp : RCP4.5/RCP8.5 available for reacnve gases and aerosols ConcentraNons (decadal averages): atmosphere- only simulanons (GISS and NCAR) : ozone (V. Eyring) : aerosols (including dust and sea- salt) : RCP4.5/RCP8.5

21 Surface ozone trends GISS All curves are 12-month running mean CAMchem Obs (from D. Parrish)

22 Surface carbon monoxide Limited by availability of long-term observations

23 Ice- core record for chemistry: H2O2

24 Aerosols

25 IPCC Decadal ProjecNon experiments Change in regional air quality by 2030 from changes in emissions and climate Mexico City, 2006 Day of Year (2006) Use spread between emissions for various IAMs for each RCP?

26 AC&C 4 (IGAC/SPARC acnvity) Drew Shindell/J.- F. Lamarque (leaders), MarNn Schultz (RETRO), Michael Schulz (AEROCOM), Veronika Eyring (CCMval), Keywan Riiahi (IAMs) Includes all major chemistry- climate modeling groups Specific science quesnons in support of AR5: DiagnosNc and analysis of radianve forcings Climate penalty of air quality Understanding long- term trends in tropospheric chemistry Climate impact of reducing ship emissions

27 AC&C 4 Phase 1: ACC- MIP ( ) 1. Timeslice experiments to complement AR5 2. Emission sensinvity studies (isoprene, CH4, ) 3. SensiNvity to IAM modeling of emissions for each RCP 4. Spread from using climatology (CCMs only) MeeNng in Paris June (in conjuncnon with HTAP) to define/refine science quesnons to be addressed in ACC- MIP and assign specific leaders

28 Hits/Misses Good (for long- term studies) overall historical emission anthropogenic & biomass burning dataset but inconsistencies remain with CO 2 /land- use. No natural emissions. Limited informanon on VOC split (used TNO specianon for RETRO) Much beper (than AR3/4) future anthropogenic emissions of pollutants from harmonizanon No air- quality specific scenario (sensinvity could be studied from same RCP from different IAMs) SuggesNon: make effort on emission/concentranon a more integrated part of planning of IPCC

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