Progress towards the achievement of the EU's air quality and emissions objectives

Transcription

1 Progress towards the achievement of the EU's air quality and emissions objectives Markus Amann EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) 47 th Session of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brescia, May 8-9, 2018

2 New developments after the NECD analyses Improved emission inventories The recent climate and energy policies of the EU New source-oriented emission control regulations The political agreement on the NECD Re-analyses of Baseline emission projections incl. latest regulations (excl. the NECD) Additional efforts to meet the NECD Emission Reduction Requirements (ERRs) Achievement of WHO guideline and EU ecosystems targets

3 Recent changes of reported emission inventories for 2005 and 2010 Updates of methods and emission factors following the EMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebooks of 2013 and 2016; Changes in national methods and emission factors; Updates of activity data; Changes in the reporting format from the Nomenclature For 5% Reporting NFR09 to NFR14. 0% of total records THE SHARE OF EMISSION REPORTING CATEGORIES WITH CHANGES > 10% BETWEEN THE 2014 AND 2017 INVENTORY SUBMISSIONS 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% NOx NMVOC SO2 NH3 PM2.5 Total With explanations Without explanations

4 Large inventory changes for some Member Sates Changes in reported emissions between the 2014 and the 2017 submissions NOx PM2.5 VOC NH3 Total emissions for the EU-28 (excl. Greece) NO x VOC SO x NH 3 PM2.5 Reference year % % % % % Reference year % % % % %

5 New source-oriented legislation after the last NEC/TSAP analyses 2014 Eco-design Directive: product-related emission standards for small combustion devices for solid fuels Medium Size Combustion Plant (MCP) Directive Non-Road Mobile Machinery (NRMM) Directive: Stage V emission standards phased-in between 2017 and 2021, with an enlarged scope of machine categories Final agreement on Euro 6 emission regulations (conformity factors, implementation schedules, etc.)

6 New energy projections The PRIMES 2016 REFERENCE baseline scenario The CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY scenario 30% energy efficiency improvements 12% lower consumption of fossil fuels 40% less GHG emissions

7 Resulting baseline emission projections for 2030 and scope for further measures EU-28 0% EU-28 10% Reduction [% of 2005 emissions] 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% REF CEP REF CEP REF CEP REF CEP REF CEP SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC Pre-2014 legislation Post-2014 legislation Scope for MTRF Remaining emissions 2017 legislation ERRs from NECD

8 Additional efforts to achieve the ERRs for the PRIMES 2016 REFERENCE scenario The gap between 2005 and the ERRs Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK SO 2 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK NO x 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Share of ERRs between 2005 and 2030 % delivered by pre-2014 legislation % delivered by post-2014 legislation Need for additional measures Co-controls from other pollutants 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Share of ERRs between 2005 and 2030 % delivered by pre-2014 legislation % delivered by post-2014 legislation Need for additional measures Co-controls from other pollutants

9 Additional efforts to meet the ERRs for NH 3 for the PRIMES 2016 REFERENCE scenario Need for additional measures (% of ERRs) Sector focus of additional measures Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Share of ERRs between 2005 and 2030 NH 3 NH3 reductions relative to 2017 legislation baseline 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% GERM ESTO LUXE POLA AUST CROA HUNG IREL BULG PORT BELG SPAI FINL ITAL LATV ROMA CYPR LITH UNKI SWED FRAN DENM SKRE CZRE MALT SLOV NETH GREE Other Sheep and goats Agricultural waste burning Other cattle Poultry Pigs Mineral fertilizers EU28 % delivered by pre-2014 legislation % delivered by post-2014 legislation Dairy cows Need for additional measures Co-controls from other pollutants -30%

10 Additional efforts to meet the ERRs for PM2.5 for the PRIMES 2016 REFERENCE scenario Need for additional measures (% of ERRs) Sector focus of additional measures Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech R. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Share of ERRs between 2005 and 2030 PM2.5 PM reductions relative to 2017 legislation baseline 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% ROMA BULG HUNG BELG SLOV CROA POLA CZRE MALT ESTO NETH ITAL CYPR PORT FRAN GERM SKRE LUXE UNKI GREE AUST SPAI IREL LITH LATV DENM FINL SWED Other Agricultural waste burning Non-road mobile machinery Industrial processes Industrial combustion Residential EU28 % delivered by pre-2014 legislation % delivered by post-2014 legislation Power plants Need for additional measures Co-controls from other pollutants -35%

11 Air pollution emission control costs for meeting the ERRs For the PRIMES 2016 REFERENCE scenario: 960 million /yr (1.9 /person/year) For the CLIMATE AND ENERGY POLICY scenario (12% lower consumption of fossil fuels, 40% less GHG emissions, 30% energy efficiency improvements): 540 million /yr (1.05 /person/year)

12 Ambient air quality PM Distribution of population exposure to PM2.5 in the EU and 2030 PM2.5 in 2030 ERR 500 million people ERR 2030 Exposure range Below WHO guideline (< 10 µg/m3) µg/m µg/m3 >25 µg/m3 In the overwhelming majority of countries PM2.5 will fall below the WHO guideline value of 10 µg/m 3 with the exception of Northern Italy and Southern Poland.

13 Remaining sources of PM ERRs Italy Poland In Italy and Poland: μg/m 3 PM μg/m 3 PM Main remaining contributors in 2030 after ERR measures: Secondary particles incl. NH 3 Solid fuel stoves in households 0 0 Origin Households Primary PM: Traffic Origin MTFR would eliminate almost all exceedances of WHO guideline Sec. PM: Traffic + agri. Sec. PM: Industry + agri Primary PM: Industry Natural

14 NO 2 exceedances number of stations in EU28 Number of AIRBASE monitoring stations falling in different ranges of NO concentrations << AQ limit >> AQ limit While currently about 20% of the almost 2000 AIRBASE monitoring stations are robustly or possibly above the NO 2 limit value, that figure is almost eliminated with the ERRs 0 <15 [15-25] [25-35] [35-45] [45-55] >55 μg NO 2 /m³ 2015 ERR2030

15 Biodiversity will remain under threat For biodiversity, the measures envisaged for reaching compliance with the ERRs will not achieve the improvements that have been suggested in the 2013 Commission proposal for the NEC Directive. Additional measures, especially for controlling NH 3 emissions, are available, and their application could further reduce excess nitrogen deposition by 75%. However, this would still leave 50% of the Natura2000 nature protection areas at risk.

16 Conclusions The 2005 inventories reported by MS in 2017 have significantly changed since more than 20% of sectoral figures by >10%. ERRs for NH 3 and PM2.5 require further action in almost all MS; recent legislation will deliver the other ERRs in about half of the MS. Costs for additional emission reductions range between 960 and 540 million/yr (or /person/year), depending on energy and climate policy decisions The recent legislation will bring the WHO guidelines for PM2.5 within reach for most areas in 2030, while further efforts will be required at hot spots, especially for agriculture and residential combustion.