Sustainability Governance of Biofuel and Bioeconomic Development: Complexity and Data Barriers

Transcription

1 Sustainability Governance of Biofuel and Bioeconomic Development: Complexity and Data Barriers Jianbang Gan, Inge Stupak, C.T. Smith Copenhagen, Denmark May 17-19, 2018

2 Outline US bioenergy policy and drivers US biofuel mandates and current production status Major sustainability concerns to meet the mandates Existing sustainability governance for biofuels Challenges for biofuel sustainability governance Complexity Uncertainties Data barriers Some thoughts about biofuel sustainability governance

3 Evolution of US Bioenergy Policy Act Energy Tax Act of 1978 Surface Transportation Assistance Act (1982) Tax Reform Act (1984) Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (1990) Transportation Efficiency Act of the 21 st Century (1998) Job Creation Act (2004) Farm Bills (various years) Energy Policy Act (2005) Energy Independence and Security Act (2007) Policy instrument Tax incentive / Output subsidy target

4 Major Drivers of US Bioenergy Policy High oil price Energy security GHG emissions Farm income Political and economic interests

5 US Biofuel Mandates and Production Status Source: USDA ERS

6 US Renewable Energy Production Source: EIA

7 US 2 nd -G Biofuel Production Capacity Company Location Fuel type Annual volume (million gallons) 2017 DuPont Nevada, IA Ethanol 30 Poet Emmetsburg, IA Ethanol 24 OCCP Galva, IA Ethanol 4 Total Abengoa Hugoton, KS Ethanol 25 Cool Planet Alexandria, LA Gasoline 1 DuPont Nevada, IA Ethanol 30 INEOS Bio Vero Beach, FL Ethanol 8 Poet Emmetsburg, IA Ethanol 24 OCCP Galva, IA Ethanol 2 Total 90 Source: USDA ERS

8 Major Sustainability Concerns Environmental Soil Water Carbon Biodiversity Socio-economic Food vs Feed vs Fiber vs Fuel Benefit-cost distribution/redistribution across stakeholders

9 Existing Governance Major Concerns Regulation Conservation Incentive Program Soil Erosion SWRCA CSP Other Voluntary Program Water Pollution CWA EQIP BMP Air Quality/GHG Emissions CAA, EISA LCI Biodiversity ESA AMAP Certification Council on Sustainable Biomass Production (CSBP) Lack of governance for food-feed-fiber-fuel (beyond national boundaries)

10 Challenges for Sustainability Governance Complexity of the system to be governed (and uncertainty adds to the complexity) Uncertainty Ordinary uncertainty: Uncertainty about what will occur even with full information Incompleteness/Incertitude: Uncertainty due to incomplete information Data barriers

11 Complexity and Expensive Tradeoffs Environment And, the tradeoffs are EPENSIVE, because solving food, fiber & environmental issues are also grand challenges.

12 Uncertainties: Examples Wide range of estimates on GHG consequences of biofuels: Positive, negative or neutral? Unknown effects of residue removals on long-term soil productivity Risk of species extinction associated with land-use change resulting from biomass production (e.g., probability, likely, highly likely) Unknown relationships: What is related to what and how? Individual vs. joint Linear vs. nonlinear Causation vs. correlation Quantitative relationships

13 Data Barriers Data for quantifying key relationships between environmental, economic and social consequences and biofuel development Spatial and temporal dimensions of data Local, regional, national, and global Site and landscape Short-term and long-term

14 Reality of Sustainability Governance No new sustainability concern without scaling up production of 2 nd -g biofuels Questions related to sustainability governance When and how much will biofuel production be scaled up? (Don t know) How will biofuels/bioproducts be produced? (Not quite sure) What will be the impacts? (Not quite sure) Can existing mechanisms safeguard sustainability? (Probably not, but need further evidence/analysis) If not, what is needed? (To be answered)

15 Vision for Sustainability Governance

16 Summary with Additional Thoughts Take advantage of existing mechanisms and instruments (policy, certification, market, tech, etc.). Adopt gradual and adaptive approaches (begin with some products and some regions/countries and learn from the experience/lessons). Allow for or address regional and product differences. Simpler governance systems are not only necessary but also possible. Avoid policy-distorted unsustainability (e.g. why set up unsustainable policy goals or production targets in the first place?).

17 Thanks!