Building Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment A Decision Making Framework

Transcription

1 Building Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessment A Decision Making Framework Presented By: Sean Capstick Principal & Senior Air Quality Specialist November 7, 2012

2 PIEVC as a Decision Making Framework Assessment of Existing Infrastructure Vulnerability PIEVC Protocol Southern Ontario Climate Three institutional buildings Design Criteria for Future Adaptation Asset Level Re-engineering, retrofit/renewal, or retirement Southern Ontario Climate Organizational Level Policy development, Management Actions Regulatory Level Codes & Standards Development, and/or Updating Verification of Adaptive Capacity Linkage to Building Durability November 2,

3 Climate Basics Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get All Weather is local Seasonal averages (Normals) and weather extremes influence design Future projections provide monthly data for temperature and precipitation Look backwards to establish trends and background data Develop climate indices to better understand weather drivers for design and assessment Use all future projections to establish confidence intervals and probabilities for future events Downscale with caution November 2,

4 Projected Future Temperature Annual Projected Temperatures: Showing 90% of the London data range Historic Obs. Historic Normal 95.0%- ile (11.74 C) 5.0%- ile (8.47 C) Temperature ( C) November 2,

5 Projected Temperature Distribution Annual Projected Temperature Distribution for All Models (2041 to 2070): London < 7.0 C 7.0 to 7.5 C 7.5 to 8.0 C 8.0 to 8.5 C 8.5 to 9.0 C 9.0 to 9.5 C 9.5 to 10.0 C 10.0 to 10.5 C 10.5 to 11.0 C 11.0 to 11.5 C 11.5 to 12.0 C 12.0 to 12.5 C 12.5 to 13.0 C 13.0 to 13.5 C 13.5 to 14.0 C 14.0 to 14.5 C 14.5 to 15.0 C 15.0 to 15.5 C 15.5 to 16.0 C 16.0 to 16.5 C 16.5 to 17.0 C > 17.0 C Frequency of Forecast Future Forecasts Future Distribution Historic Distribution Temperature Bin ( C) November 2,

6 Projected Rate of Climate Change Temperature ( C/decade) Annual Rate of Climate Change From ( ) to ( ) London Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Historic Obs % - 4.0% - 2.0% +0.0% +2.0% +4.0% +6.0% Precipitation (%/decade) November 2,

7 Projected Rate of Climate Change Temperature ( C) Annual Absolute Climate Change From ( ) to ( ) London Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Historic Obs. Projected Obs % - 20% - 10% +0% +10% +20% +30% Precipitation (%) November 2,

8 Extreme Events Implications for Canada s climate and weather include: Higher and more frequent hot extremes; Longer and more frequent heat waves; and More frequent, higher intensity precipitation events. Implications for ecosystems and socio-economic infrastructure: Increased number of hot days and heat spells, leading to increased summer energy requirements for space cooling Increase in intense precipitation events with implications for water resource management and flooding Increased risk of summer drought, particularly in regions where the stream-flow is provided by spring and summer runoff, due to a decrease in snow-pack Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographical Society. (2007, March). Comprehensive Position Statement on Climate Change. Retrieved October 12, 2011, from November 2,

9 Planning for the Future Investment in Infrastructure $ Risk of Climate Impacts $ Planning for Future React to impacts of climate change November 2,

10 Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Five step evaluation process A tool derived from standard risk management methodologies Intended for use by qualified engineering professionals working with climate scientists, other disciplines (e.g. hydrologists geologists), managers, operators and maintenance staff Requires contributions from those with pertinent local knowledge and experience Focused on the principles of vulnerability and resiliency PIEVC Engineering Protocol for Climate Change Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment, April November 2,

11 Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Climate-Infrastructure Interactions Climatic Factors Infrastructure Components November 2,

12 Climate Change Risk Mitigation through Adaptation Flood Climate Change/Development Flood Adaptation Flood November 2,

13 Climate Change Risk Mitigation through Adaptation Flood Engineering Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change/Development Risk Mitigation Flood Adaptation Flood November 2,

14 Case Guiding Framework Infrastructure Ontario (IO) Jurisdictional Review on Adaptation 2008 MOE Expert Panel Working Group: Adaptation to Climate Change in Ontario November 2009 IO License with Engineers Canada and Selection of Golder/MH for study 2010 MOE: Climate Ready- Ontario s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan November 2011 Environmental Commissioners Office: Ready for Change? An assessment of Ontario s climate change adaptation strategy March 2012 November 2,

15 IO Candidate Properties for PIEVC Owner Perspective Infrastructure Ontario St Catharines K RSF Brantford K RSF London K RSF November 2,

16 Building Interactions with Climate Major Infrastructure Categories Building Envelope & Structure Mechanical Systems Electrical Systems Exterior Landscaping & Walkways Stormwater & Wastewater November 2,

17 Performance Considerations Structural Integrity Functionality Operations & Maintenance Emergency Response Policies & Procedures Tenant Comfort Insurance Considerations Health & Safety Environmental Effects November 2,

18 Identifying Interactions Infrastructure Component Climate Factors Freeze-thaw Humidity Rain Snow Sun Temperature Wind Slight increase based on increasing winter precipitation and average temperatures Slight increase based on increasing precipitation from analysis of all models, and increase in winter temperatures. Increase annual rainfall of ~50 mm Slight increase in frequency of heavy rain, and freezing rain, and rain on snow events Trends Unclear Trends Unclear Average temperature rise of 2.5 degrees Increase in extreme heat and cooling degree days Decrease in extreme cold and heating degree days Slight decrease in wind speed on average, however summertime events have the potential for gustier conditions due to increase in atmospheric energy for thunderstorm events Infrastructure System Y/N Y/N Y/N Y/N Y/N Y/N Y/N Cladding & Insulation Y Y Y Y Y Glazing Y Y Y Y Water & Wastewater Systems Y Y Y Structural Elements Y Y Y Y Y HVAC System Y Y Y Y Y Y Roof Y Y Y Y Exterior Elements Y Y Y Y Y Electrical Systems Supporting Infrastructure Y Y Y Y Y November 2,

19 Priority Thresholds Proposed Risk Range Proposed Classification Proposed Response < 12 Low Risk - interactions represent no immediate vulnerability and there is very low potential climate change vulnerability associated with the infrastructure component. No immediate action necessary Medium Risk - interactions represent a potential vulnerability or integrations has a potential EHS component or significant uncertainty in climate projections Action may be required to increase adaptive capacity or Further Engineering Analysis may be necessary because a clear, unambiguous, determination of the vulnerability is not possible Consider development of Best Management Practices / Codes of Practices > 36 High Risk - interactions represent an identified vulnerability Immediate action may be required Consider development of Best Management Practices / Codes of Practices/ Regulations November 2,

20 Key Findings General Interactions categorized by infrastructure subcomponent Current Capacity/Performance, Future Load, Adaptation Considerations High, Medium and Low risk identified Risk centered around HVAC Building Envelope Waterdamage and Flooding Cultural Aspects (London Heritage Building) November 2,

21 moving forward 23 Canadian case studies and counting Recommendations by infrastructure type Engineers Canada & World Federation of Engineering Organizations Delivery of training workshops and international case studies Expansion of protocol to include adaptation costing Triple bottom line approach well as No adaptation Goal of no regrets adaptation November 2,

22 Contact Information Sean Capstick, P. Eng. Principal Golder Associates November 2,