Current status of Japan s climate policy mix

Transcription

1 Current status of Japan s climate policy mix Takeshi Kuramochi, PhD Climate and Energy Area Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) TERI-IGES Policy Research Workshop on Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime December 2013, New Delhi The contents of this presentation are the opinions of the presenter and do not reflect the views of IGES.

2 Outline Japan s new 2020 mitigation target Current climate policy mix T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 2

3 Climate policy development after Sept Gov t change LDP DPJ Copenhagen COP*: -25% by 2020 vs Bill of the Basic Act on Global l Warming Countermeasures (2010)** Legally enshrine GHG targets (-25% by 2020, -80% by 2050) Establish (i) Economy-wide ETS, (ii) Fullfledged renewable FIT, (iii) Green tax scheme *: **: MoEJ (2010). T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 3

4 2010 Basic Energy Plan Energy-related CO 2 in 2030: -30% vs million kwh Centralized power generation No roadmap for achieving % target 14 additional nuclear plants by 2030 (9 by 2020) Source: METI (2010). T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 4

5 T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 5

6 New energy and climate strategy t under DPJ government Three basic philosophies: Realization of new best-mix of energy sources Draw up a scenario of reduced dependence on nuclear energy Utilize a clear and strategic schedule to avoid energy shortfalls and price rises Thorough review of nuclear power policies and operate under a new framework Realization of new energy systems Distributed energy system Seek to make an international contribution as advanced problem-solving nation Formation of national consensus Stimulate national discussions overcoming the confrontation between nuclear proponents and opponents Verify objective data Formulate innovative energy and environmental strategies while maintaining dialogue with a broad range of national people * National Policy Unit (2011) Interim Compilation of Discussion Points for the Formulation of Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment, accessed on November 29, T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 6

7 Innovative Strategy on Energy and Environment (Sept. 2012) Nuclear phase-out during 2030s Drastic change in power demand & supply in 2030: 20% reduction vs Basic Energy Plan Share: 30% renewables + 15% CHP GHG mitigation: around 20% vs.1990 in 2030 (5-9% for 2020) Did not become legally binding T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 7

8 Bye DPJ, hello again LDP (Dec present) LDP cabinet to scrap the Innovative Strategy New Basic Energy Plan to be formulated in Jan Nuclear power as important base-load * New 2020 GHG target (fresh from Warsaw!):** -3.8% from 2005 levels +3.1% vs.1990 levels Assumes no restart of nuclear plants Positioned as tentative target *: METI (2013). (in Japanese) **: GoJ (2013). T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 8

9 +13.5% +7% Compared with previous targets (as explained by GoJ in COP19) w/o Nuclear If these targets are compared without the assumed emission reduction by nuclear power w/o Nuclear +4.0% +2.1% w/o Nuclear New Target 3.8% 12% from FY2005 level 6% From FY1990 level ~~ ~ ~~ FY1990 FY2005 Nuclear Power Nuclear Power Ratio Rti Ratio 27% (Record) 31% (Record) Kyoto Target [FY ] 15% (domestic) from FY2005 level ~~ + 2.8% (forest) Mid Term Target Developed in 2009 [FY2020] ~New Target [FY2020] w/o Nuclear Source: MoEJ (2013). "Japan s global and domestic initiatives toward Low Carbon Society COP19 Official Side Event by Ministry of the Environment, Japan, 20 November. T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 9

10 History of 2020 targets DPJ government +5% June 09 Sept 09 Sept 12 Nov 13 Mid-Term Fukushima 90 levels Target * -5% -10% -9% -25% -5% ~ -9% +3.1% -15% -20% -15% vs. 05 levels; -25% No forest sinks/ overseas credits No forest sinks/ overseas credits Incl. forest sinks and overseas credits *: Cabinet s Office (2009). T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 10

11 Summary on the new 2020 target There is limited information available to draw any conclusion, but Targets and underlying debates under DPJ gov t completely discarded Basis seems to be the -9% target announced in 2009 under PM Aso Equal marginal abatement cost vs. EU and US assuming 25% reduction for developed countries Difficult to argue that the new target is more ambitious than 2009 Aso target Different economic growth assumptions (?) T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 11

12 Current energy & climate policy mix Energy Conservation Act (business establishments) Emission Top Runner Standards standards Insulation Sectoral benchmarks standards Emissions i Trading Sh Scheme JVETS High efficiency furnaces and boilers Green Investment Tax Break Insulation standards Solar PV, heat pumps, appliances (eco points, etc) Petroleum and Coal Tax, etc. Global Warming Tax Eco car tax Keidanren s Voluntary Action Plan Feed In Tariff Source: Adapted from MOE 2012 ( T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 12

13 Mitigation policy measures The Big Three FIT for renewables Global Warming Tax (Emissions trading scheme) Contributions overseas Climate finance Joint Crediting Mechanism Other measures Energy efficiency standards Industrial voluntary actions p 2 Power plant CO 2 emission standards T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 13

14 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) for renewables* (July 2012 present) Applies to most renewables** and all electricity generated*** Electric utilities pass on all extra costs to end- users 80% reduction of FIT surcharge for large consuming companies (based on use per sales) FIT quite favorable for solar PV 93% of approved facilities (July 2012 June 2013) *The Act on Special Measures concerning the Procurement of Renewable Electric Energy by Operators of Electric Utilities, html (in Japanese). English description available at: ** Includes wind, solar, small hydro (<30MW), geothermal and biomass that does not affect existing industrial processes such as pulp and paper production. *** Net metering will still be applied to residential solar PV smaller than 10kW. T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 14

15 Feed-in Tariff (FIT) for renewables Some issues 25 Utilities permitted to refuse access 20 > 80% of approved facilities not operating Price fixed at the at the time of approval 5 Providing perverse incentives? 15 GW Geothermal Biomass Small medium hydro Wind Solar PV (non HH) 10 Solar PV (for HH) 0 Cumulative installed capacity Facilities approved Facilities began operating Before July 2012 July 2012 June T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 15

16 Global Warming Tax (2012) Taxation of 289 JPY/t-CO 2 by FY2016 Expected revenue: ~260 billion JPY after 2016 Will cover FF equivalent to ~900 MtCO 2 e/yr Revenues for promoting EE, RE, distributed generation, etc Energy-intensive industrial sectors exempted Larger impact expected from the use of tax revenues 1.76 Mt/yr by price effect Mt/yr as a result of budget effect Policy impact yet to be seen Source: T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 16

17 Japan s climate finance contributions Largest FSF contributor Others, (face value) USD 16 billion pledge for (public + private) Germany, 1.7 Norway, 2.1 UK, 2.5 Donor (in bn USD) USA, Japan, 13.5 T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 17

18 Climate finance contributions Joint research on Fast-Start Finance (with WRI and ODI) Draws lessons for long-term climate finance toward 2020 T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 18

19 Thank you! Website: T. Kuramochi IGES 16 December, New Delhi, India. 19