Hur kommer klimatet att påverka Östersjöns and Västerhavets framtid?

Transcription

1 Hur kommer klimatet att påverka Östersjöns and Västerhavets framtid? H.E. Markus Meier Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and Stockholm University

2 IPCC 2013

3 Added value of regional climate modeling

4 Regional climate modeling at the SMHI Global Regional

5 New scenario simulations following IPCC 2013 New scenarios (SRES -> Representative concentration pathways RCPs) New global climate model runs New regional climate model Ensemble approach required to describe uncertainties in future climate change

6 Long-term changes (Source: E. Kjellström, SMHI)

7 Changes in winter temperatures (Source: E. Kjellström, SMHI)

8 Changes in summer temperatures (Source: E. Kjellström, SMHI)

9 (Source: E. Kjellström, SMHI) 9

10 (Source: E. Kjellström, SMHI) 10

11 RCA4-NEMO (Source: Dieterich et al., 2013) 11

12 Seasonal SST changes ( C) RCA4-NEMO / MPI-ESM-LR RCP minus Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Ons-Dec (Source: C. Dieterich, SMHI) 12

13 Seasonal SST changes ( C) RCA4-NEMO / MPI-ESM-LR RCP minus Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Ons-Dec Northern Baltic amplification (Source: C. Dieterich, SMHI) 13

14 Baltic Sea; how to approach the future? Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making COD SPRAT 11 partner institutes from 7 Baltic Sea countries

15 Baltic Sea; how to approach the future? Combined effects of climate change and nutrient loads COD Ensemble modeling to quantify uncertainty SPRAT Decision support to policy makers

16 (Source: Meier et al., 2012, ERL) Simulated ensemble averages and observed annual mean water temperatures ((a), (b)) and salinities ((c), (d)) at Gotland Deep at 1.5 and 200 m depth, annual mean oxygen concentrations at 200 m depth (e), and winter (January March) mean surface phosphate (f) and nitrate (g) concentrations. Shaded areas denote the ranges of plus/minus one standard deviation around the ensemble averages. The various nutrient load scenarios ( ) are shown by colored lines (REF yellow, BSAP blue, BAU red) and the reconstruction ( ) by the black line. For comparison, observations from monitoring cruises at Gotland Deep (green diamonds, in panel (a) since 1970 only) and from the light ship Svenska Björn, operated during (orange triangles in panel (a)), were used. 16

17 (Source: Meier et al., 2012, ERL) Simulated ensemble averages and observed annual mean water temperatures ((a), (b)) and salinities ((c), (d)) at Gotland Deep at 1.5 and 200 m depth, annual mean oxygen concentrations at 200 m depth (e), and winter (January March) mean surface phosphate (f) and nitrate (g) concentrations. Shaded areas denote the ranges of plus/minus one standard deviation around the ensemble averages. The various nutrient load scenarios ( ) are shown by colored lines (REF yellow, BSAP blue, BAU red) and the reconstruction ( ) by the black line. For comparison, observations from monitoring cruises at Gotland Deep (green diamonds, in panel (a) since 1970 only) and from the light ship Svenska Björn, operated during (orange triangles in panel (a)), were used. 17

18 (Source: Meier et al., 2012, ERL) Simulated ensemble averages and observed annual mean water temperatures ((a), (b)) and salinities ((c), (d)) at Gotland Deep at 1.5 and 200 m depth, annual mean oxygen concentrations at 200 m depth (e), and winter (January March) mean surface phosphate (f) and nitrate (g) concentrations. Shaded areas denote the ranges of plus/minus one standard deviation around the ensemble averages. The various nutrient load scenarios ( ) are shown by colored lines (REF yellow, BSAP blue, BAU red) and the reconstruction ( ) by the black line. For comparison, observations from monitoring cruises at Gotland Deep (green diamonds, in panel (a) since 1970 only) and from the light ship Svenska Björn, operated during (orange triangles in panel (a)), were used. 18

19 Projections of higher trophic levels (cod) (Source: Niiranen et al., 2013, Global Change Biology) Projected spawner biomass of cod in the Baltic Sea as simulated using BaltProWeb coupled to three biogeochemical models assuming three nutrient loading scenarios as well as two cod fishery scenarios ( Business-as-Usual and cod recovery plan (F03)). 19

20 BALTEX successor programme lauched at the 7 th Study Conference on BALTEX, Borgholm, Öland, Sweden, June 2013 Vision of the new programme To achieve an improved Earth System understanding of the Baltic Sea region Interdisciplinary and international collaboration (study conferences, workshops, etc.) Holistic view on the Earth system of the Baltic Sea region, encompassing processes in the atmosphere, on land and in the sea and also in the anthroposphere Service to society in the respect that thematic assessments provide an overview over knowledge gaps which need to be filled (e.g. by funded projects) Education (summer schools) Inherits the BALTEX network of scientists and infrastructure

21 Thank you very much! Cyanobacteria bloom