VGB Kongress Will African Electricity Contribute to Sufficient High Security of Supply in the European Power System?

Transcription

1 Status VGB Kongress 2011 Will African Electricity Contribute to Sufficient High Security of Supply in the European Power System? Führt afrikanische Strom zu erhöhter Versorgungssicherheit in Europa 23 rd September 2011 Bern, Schweiz Dr. Andreas Wiese, Dipl-Ing. Thomas Kraneis, Valerio Nuzzo 1

2 Agenda Status of power generation and transmission system in North Africa Methodology and Assumptions of the Analysis LECs of different technology combinations Impact of the mid term cost development expectations Summary & Conclusions 2

3 Power Generation and Installation in Northern Africa Status and Plans COUNTRIES ANNUAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION (year 2008) [TWh] INSTALLED CAPACITY [MW] PLANNED POWER GENERATION [MW] Egypt 123, Algeria 37, Libya 26, Morocco 19, Tunisia 14, TOTAL 222,

4 Actual status Transmission and distribution system 4

5 Interconnections between countries Current connections between Northern African countries INTERCONNECTION POWER NUMBER OF LINES VOLTAGE LEVEL BUILT IN NOTES MOROCCO ALGERIA MW kv kv 2006 currently operating at 220kV kv 2005 ALGERIA TUNISIA 900 MW kv kv kv 1956 TUNISIA LIBYA 300 MW kv 2003 LIBYA EGYPT 170 MW kv 1998 Planned connections between Africa and Europe INTERCONNECTION TYPE POWER LENGTH VOLTAGE LEVEL NOTES LIBYA ITALY HDVC submarine MW 520 km 500 kv ALGERIA SPAIN HDVC submarine MW 240 km 500 kv ALGERIA ITALY HDVC submarine MW 750 km 500 kv direct line to Latina ALGERIA ITALY HDVC submarine 500 MW 320 km 400 kv optimised line to Sardinia TUNISIA ITALY HDVC submarine 400 MW 200 km 400 kv first pole TUNISIA ITALY HDVC submarine 600 MW 200 km 400 kv second pole after reinforcement of the sicilian grid 5

6 An Abundance of Space and Sun in Northern Africa Annual sum of direct normal irradiation in kwh/m²y. 6

7 Example: Hassi R Mel, Algeria Key Features First integrated solar combined cycle (ISCC) in Algeria Total installed power: 150 MW el, solar share of 25 MW el Solar field mirror area: 180,000 m² Land area: 130 ha Duration of works : 42 months (November 2007 April 2011) EPC investment: 260 Mio ; solar part: ~75 Mio LEC : 4 cents / kwh (in hybrid operation, 5% solar share) LI Services Due diligence Owner s engineer during construction 7

8 Technologies Combinations Power generation technology Storage technology Supply curve: Flat Supply curve: Daytime Supply curve: Variable Transmission 1TL Transmission 2TL Transmission 1TL Transmission 2TL Transmission 1TL Transmission 2TL PV (also CPV and Tracking system is studied) CSP (parabolic trough and tower) WIND PV+CSP PV+WIND CSP+WIND PV+CSP+WIND Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage Thermal storage Battery Pump storage CH 4 storage - Redox - Lead Acid - NaS 1TL: one transmission line from power plant to inland Spain 2TL: one transmission line from power plant to Southern Spain, one transmission line to inland Spain 8

9 Flow chart of calculation tool Important Assumptions: INPUT SCENARIO SELECTION NATURAL RESOURCE (wind speed, DNI, GHI) SYSTEM PARAMETERS SIZE PRODUCTION AND STORAGE CAPEX AND OPEX - Hourly calculation for a complete year (2005 solar data, 2007 wind data) - Wind data: Tarfaya (Morocco); Solar data: Ouarzazate (Morocco) CALCULATION TECHNICAL CALCULATION ROUTINE ECONOMIC CALCULATION ROUTINE - Supply scenario normalised to 1GW times 8760h - CAPEX and OPEX 2011, 2015, Transmission losses to Europe are included OUTPUT ELECTRICITY OUTPUT DUMPED ENERGY UNMET DEMAND LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY - Discount rate: 8% - Average lifetime of the complete system: years 9

10 Security of Supply in the context hereunder Security of supply is a key energy policy objective In Germany it is monitored periodically; different technical indicators are used (supply reliability index, frequency and duration of interruptions etc. In our analysis: The probability to supply a predefined supply task over the year with a defined probability, e.g. 99 % loss of load probability 1 % Usually simplified to fullfill the supply of defined daily load curves In our case, we consider one defined load curve for the complete year no benefits due to seasonal correlations of demand and renewable supply! More technical and non-technical issues need to be considered in a full analysis: Technical: e.g. comply with technical grid code standards Non-technical: e.g. global political risks, country political risks, country financial risks; financial risks due to the transmission system operator as well as power generation system operator 10

11 Long term data analysis Wind Data (data for Agadir) Solar Data (data for Agadir) SOLAR AND WIND LULL/DARK PERIODS (maximum consecutives hours with less resources than a minimum value) WIND min value MOROCCO (Tanger) GERMANY (Freiburg) SOLAR Dark period limit value MOROCCO (Ouarzazate) GERMANY (Freiburg) Longest lull period (in h) 3 m/s 69 h 100 h Longest dark perdiod (in h) DHI 400 W/m2 119 h n.a. GHI 200 W/m2 37 h 190 h Number of daily lull periods longer than 6h 3 m/s Number of daily dark periods longer than 6h DHI 400 W/m2 79 n.a. GHI 200 W/m

12 Cost of secure energy CAPEX and OPEX : Combination I: PV plant (polycrystalline modules, fixed mounted) plus pumped hydro storage - Combination II: Wind park (2MW turbines) plus pumped hydro storage - Combination III: CSP plant (parabolic trough) plus thermal storage (molten salt) 12

13 Power transmission to Europe - Distance: - TL1: km - TL2: 800 km - Technical lifetime: 40 y - 2,30 c /kwh impact on LEC - Cost share of CAPEX: - 14% in PV - 11% in CSP - 33% in Wind - Doesn t influence the selection of the generation system or storage. - Selection of the solution needs further study 13

14 Lowest LEC Combination Wind power: 2,2 GW installed Storage: pumped hydro 400 MW (12,5 h) Security of supply: 99 % Energy produced: 90 % LEC: For comparison: LEC of wind only: 7,7 cent /kwh 6,4 cent/kwh CAPEX (M ) LEC (c /kwh) ,7 6,7 6,4 14

15 Supply Schemes - Security of supply: 99% - Purchased on Spanish market: 9% - PV: Polycrystalline with 40 degrees inclination and direction S, fixed mounted - Wind: 2MW turbines - PV and CSP location: Ouarzazate (Morocco) - Wind farm location: Tarfaya (Morocco) - Transmission losses and investment are included in the Levelised Electricity Cost - Cost level:

16 Impact of cost development Assumptions: Configurations with storage - Security of supply: 99% - Energy purchased in Spanish market: 9% - Supply curve: flat PV configuration: - Polycrystalline, fixed mounted MWp - Storage: pumped hydro MW Wind configuration: wind turbines (2 MW each) - Storage: pumped hydro MW CSP configuration: - Parabolic trough - Turbine size: MW - Thermal storage: MWh thermal (20h) Configuration without storage: - Transmission losses and CAPEX included - System is sized in order to produce the same amount of energy of the configuration with storage - All energy produced is delivered to Spain with no imposed supply scheme 16

17 Summary and Conclusions The north African power market has actually a size of about 50 GW and will have substantial growth rates in the next one to two decades due to own, regional demand. The existing transmission system in Northern Africa can more or less not be used for power export to Europe on GW scale Wind and solar resources in Northern Africa provide higher amount of energy, but also more steadyness and therefore higher security of supply by itself, compared to e.g. German wind and solar sites; however, still providing a supply task with high security of supply (low loss of load probability) increases the cost compared to energy provision only. Given today cost figures, the combination wind plus pump hydro seems to be also on larger scale the combination with the lowest levelised electricity generation cost. For this case, the additional cost to satisfy a supply task instead of delivering energy, is around 1,3 cent/kwh. Satisfying a supply task brings CSP and PV on similar cost level based on the present CAPEX and OPEX estimates. The cost development in wind, PV and CSP sector in the next decade will be all in the same direction (down), but with different pace; this will lead to different ranking of combinations in the future; however, it might still be that wind/hydro combination is the lowest LEC solution in 10 years time. 17