The Contribution of Bioenergy to the 2020-RES-Targets

Transcription

1 The Contribution of Bioenergy to the -RES-Targets in Austria and Other Central European Countries Gerald Kalt, Lukas Kranzl, Reinhard Haas Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology

2 Objective Current role of biomass for the energy supply in Central Europe Recent developments in biomass use Comparison between CE countries Importance of biomass for achieving the -RES-targets Resource potentials Model-based scenarios Critical issues, e.g. Importance and effectiveness of support schemes National biomass action plans 2

3 Outline Recent developments and current bioenergy use in CE Potentials and prospects Summary and conclusions 3

4 The importance of biomass in the energy supply in CE Geographical location of the considered countries* Bioenergy as share of gross inland energy consumption in (values in PJ/a) DK 122 DK DE CZ AT SI PL SK HU DE 925 IT 187 CZ 83 AT 194 SI 19 PL 198 SK 25 HU % % % % > 10% IT *) These countries are referred to as CE countries in this work, even though Italy and Denmark are usually not considered to be part of Central Europe. Source: Eurostat 2009, own calculation and illustration 4

5 Development of biomass use as share of the gross inland consumption in CE countries Share of biomass in gross inland consumption 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 14.21% 13.70% 9.2% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.3% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0% AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Source: Eurostat 2009, own calculation and illustration

6 Development of biomass use in Central Europe Consumption of biomass & wastes (PJ/a) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Biomass and waste consumption broken down by countries Source: Eurostat 2009, own calculation and illustration Transport fuels Electricity and CHP District heating plants Heat generation Consumption of biomass & wastes (PJ/a) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Biomass and waste consumption broken down by type of use Source: Eurostat 2009, own calculation and illustration SK SI PL IT HU DK DE CZ AT 7

7 Outline Recent developments and current bioenergy use Potentials and prospects Summary and conclusions 8

8 Potentials Comparison of actual biomass primary energy consumption in (non-renewable MSW not included here) and domestic biomass resource potentials in, & 2030 (according to EEA, 2006) 2, ,800 PJ/a 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Biomass use Potential of biogenous wastes Potential of forest biomass Potential of energy crops PJ/a AT DE IT PL CZ DK HU SI SK Sources: Eurostat 2009, EEA 2006, own calculations and illustration 9

9 Scenarios - Towards the -targets Assessing the future role of bioenergy with the help of model-based scenario simulation Scenario development using the dynamic simulation tool Green-X Summary of the results of two studies: 1. Scenario for RES deployment in the EU-27 (Resch et al. 2009: Futures-E *) Strengthened national policy scenario Implementation of feasible energy efficiency measures (PRIMES target case) Support conditions for RES are improved, leading to the fulfillment of the EU-wide 20%-target by To what extent can domestic biomass resources contribute to the fulfillment of the -targets in CE? *) Futures-E 20% RES by Scenarios on future European policies for RES-Electricity, Vienna (2009) 11

10 1. Scenario for Central Europe (1) Strengthened national policy scenario according to Resch et al (Simulation model Green-X) Biomass consumption as share of gross inland consumption 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% AT DK PL DE historic Scenario Biomass consumption as share of gross inland consumption 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% HU CZ SK IT historic Scenario Sources: Eurostat 2009, Resch et al. 2009, own calculations and illustration 12

11 1. Scenario for Central Europe (2) Biomass consumption according to Strengthened national policy scenario (Resch et al. 2009) Error bars: biomass potentials according to EEA 2006 Actual biomass primary consumption (PJ/a) AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: Eurostat 2009, Resch et al. 2009, EEA 2006, own calculations and illustration 13

12 Scenarios - Towards the -targets Assessing the future role of bioenergy with the help of model-based scenario simulation Scenario development using the dynamic simulation tool Green-X Summary of the results of two studies: 1. Scenario for RES deployment in the EU-27 (Resch et al. 2009: Futures-E *) Strengthened national policy scenario Implementation of feasible energy efficiency measures (PRIMES target case) Support conditions for RES are improved, leading to the fulfillment of the EU-wide 20%-target by To what extent can domestic biomass resources contribute to the fulfillment of the -targets in CE? 2. Scenarios for the Austrian bioenergy sector (Haas et al. 2008: Bioenergy strategy 2050 **) Different framework conditions (Low-price Baseline, High-price Efficiency scenarios) Effects of different framework conditions and support schemes on bioenergy use How can the we use the domestic biomass resources in Austria in a most efficient way? To what extent can different support schemes influence the efficiency of the bioenergy sector? *) Futures-E 20% RES by Scenarios on future European policies for RES-Electricity, Vienna (2009) **) Biomassestrategie 2050 Strategien zur optimalen Erschließung der Biomassepotenziale in Österreich bis zum Jahr 2050 mit dem Ziel einer maximalen Reduktion an Treibhausgasemissionen, Vienna

13 2. Scenarios for the Austrian bioenergy sector (1) according to Haas et al ( Biomass Strategy 2050 ) Simulation results: Share of biomass in the total energy consumption Biomass share in total primary energy consumption [%] 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% historic Outlook scenarios (1-4) (1-3) (1-1) (3-2) (3-1) 0% historic High-price efficiency max High-price efficiency Low-price baseline (3-3) (2-4) (2-3) (2-1) High-price efficiencymax scenarios High-price efficiency scenarios Low-price baseline scenarios Source: Haas et al

14 2. Scenarios for the Austrian bioenergy sector (2) according to Haas et al ( Biomass Strategy 2050 ) Selected simulation results (Low-price baseline scenarios) Structure of the biomass sector Average costs of GHG mitigation No-Policy Heat Utilization Heat-and- Power Balanced- Policy Outlook for Transport Costs of GHG mitigation ( /t) Transport Balanced policy Heat-and-power Electricity Transport fuels No-policy Source: Haas et al

15 2. Scenarios for the Austrian bioenergy sector (3) according to Haas et al ( Biomass Strategy 2050 ) Selected conclusions from this study: For the case of Austria, support schemes should focus on heat sector and under the precondition of high waste heat utilization CHP To maximize the benefits of biomass use, a clear focus of support schemes on the most efficient utilization paths and quality management measures are necessary Otherwise increasing competition for limited biomass resources can have negative impact on economic and environmental efficiency of the bioenergy sector 18

16 Outline Recent developments and current bioenergy use Potentials and prospects Summary and conclusions 19

17 Summary and Conclusions (1) Bioenergy currently has the highest contribution of all RES (in Central Europe, the EU & the World) Progress in bioenergy use of high importance for achieving the -targets Bioenergy assumed to contribute between about 50 and 90% of increase in renewable energy generation (depending on country-specific conditions) Significant progress has been achieved in some Central European countries (especially DK, DE) in recent years Progress primarily in electricity generation/chp (e.g. DE, DK, HU) and biofuels for transport (e.g. DE, AT) Progress very uneven in the considered countries (hardly any progress in SI & PL) Heat generation neglected in former policies Heat generation often the most competitive way of using biomass and highly efficient with regard to GHG reduction Increasing importance expected due to 2009-RES-directive 20

18 Summary and Conclusions (2) Considerable unused resource potentials in most CE countries Structure of biomass potentials (forestry, agriculture, wastes and residues) highly diverse Specific measures and strategies for the mobilization of locally available resources necessary (regional energy concepts) Cross-border/global biomass trade is becoming increasingly important Uneven progress in biomass use encouraged biomass trade between EU countries Among CE countries Poland has the most significant export potential Comprehensive strategies for bioenergy required (National biomass action plans) Options for biomass use highly diverse (with regard to resources, applications, technologies ) Bioenergy policies interconnected with agriculture, wood-processing industries, waste management Model-based scenario simulation helps reveal efficient strategies and policy measures 21

19 Thank you for your attention! Gerald Kalt Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology 22