12/6/16. Section 10: Action how to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions? 1. reduce emissions: o 1.a using current technologies: wedges

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1 Section 10: Action Outline 10.1 Mitigation 10.2 Adaptation how to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions? 1. reduce emissions: o 1.a using current technologies: wedges Pathways to stabilizing CO2 emissions With existing technologies, can society stabilization CO2 emissions? Need 7 technologies, each of which reduces emissions in 50 years by 1 Gt C/year (a wedge ). (Now 9 are needed because of no action since 2004.) Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004 Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke 1

2 Pathways to stabilizing CO2 emissions 15 wedges: energy conservation and efficiency fuel switching, C capture storage alternative energy sources land management Global Pacala and Climate Socolow, Change Science, Prof J. Hicke Mitigation options in agriculture Sum = 6000 Mt CO2-eq/yr Current fossil fuel+cement emissions = 34,000 Mt CO2/yr Global Climate Change IPCC, Working 5Group III, 2007 Prof J. Hicke Mitigation options in agriculture In 2030 Global Climate Change 6 IPCC, Working Group III, 2007 Prof J. Hicke 2

3 Mitigation options in forestry Current fossil fuel+cement emissions = 34 Gt CO2/yr Cumulative C by 2050 and by 2100 IPCC, Working Group III, 2007 Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke Mitigation options in forestry: avoided deforestation Cumulative CO2 by 2055 Current fossil fuel+cement emissions = 34 Gt CO2/yr Global Climate Change IPCC, Working 8Group III, 2007 Prof J. Hicke how to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions? 1. reduce emissions: o 1.a using current technologies: wedges o 1.b develop new technologies o carbon capture and storage o capture CO2 during fossil fuel burning, then sequester deep underground or in deep ocean o solar roadways video o nuclear fusion Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke 3

4 how to reduce and eliminate GHG emissions? 2. lower CO2 concentrations need to remove CO2 from increase current sinks current technologies forest management reforest (allow forests to regrow) afforest (increase forest by planting in lands that cannot support forests) water, fertilizer ag management: rebuild soil C through conservation tillage, etc. develop new technologies artificial trees Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke How will this happen? national, international agreements more grassroots: local, state governments cobenefits air, water pollution energy security foreign oil running out of oil/coal business cost savings efficiency, conservation biodiversity conservation minimize water, soil erosion Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke definition: deliberate and large-scale intervention in the Earth s climatic system with the aim of reducing global warming advantages: may be financially cheaper may be only way to avoid dangerous anthr. influence of CC may be implemented faster than reducing emissions Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke 4

5 a. solar radiation management 2% reduction in solar radiation (or inc. in global surface albedo) would offset GHG forcing (2xCO2) space-based reflectors stratospheric aerosols more marine clouds inc. surface albedo 10% of land surface from 0.15 to 0.8 (bright as snow) Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke b. CO2 reduction ocean fertilization ocean productivity limited by nutrients, incl. Fe air capture capture and storage at CO2 production site (power plants) Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke Geoengineering possibilities Kitchen, Pearson Education, Inc. Global Climate Change 15 Prof J. Hicke 5

6 c. why not? SRM: continued ocean acidification ozone depletion acid deposition reduced solar energy effects on plant growth effects on regional climate cost surprises Global Climate Change 16 Prof J. Hicke c. why not? C storage: where to put, how secure is it (will CO2 leak out)? international institutions not in place to manage geoengineering who decides what should be done what happens if there s an accident? Global Climate Change 17 Prof J. Hicke 6