Less is More: Managing Demand for Electricity Nelson Institute, March 2, 2007 Susan Stratton, Executive Director

Transcription

1 Less is More: Managing Demand for Electricity Nelson Institute, March 2, 2007 Susan Stratton, Executive Director

2 A report issued in Fall 2005 showed that Wisconsin could save enough electricity through conservation to defer construction of one power plant every five years and to replace enough natural gas to heat as many as 65,000 homes each year. (Strategic Energy Assessment: Energy 2021, Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, February, 2007)

3 Energy Center of Wisconsin We are a private non-profit organization, with an 18-member board that includes utilities, government, university, and public interest groups. We participate in local and nationally recognized energy collaborations that broaden our base of expertise. Our funding is balanced between public and private sources. We have a staff of 30 employees with expertise in engineering, architecture, statistics, curriculum development, public outreach, and energy and environmental policy. Vision: Efficient use of energy resources, a healthy environment, and a strong economy.

4 Practice Areas Energy Literacy Building Performance Residential Commercial Industrial Best Practices Energy and the Environment

5 Less is More Two contexts: 1. Conserving resources 2. Reducing Green House Gases that contribute to climate change

6 Reduce carbon to address climate change EFFICIENCY (Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants. DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY (Less coal, more nuclear, carbon capture, renewables) DECARBONIZED FUELS (Synthetic fuel, Biofuels, Hydrogen, nuclear energy, renewables) FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY (Grid-charged batteries for transport, Heat pumps) NATURAL SINKS (Forestry, soils)

7 Carbon management Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies. Science Vol August 13, 2004 Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow, A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check, Scientific American, Volume 295, Number 3, September 2006.

8 Wedges 14 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 GtC/y Seven wedges 7 Historical emissions Flat path O 7 GtC/y

9 What is a Wedge? A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. Total = 25 Gigatons carbon 1 GtC/yr 50 years Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A solution to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

10 Filling the Triangle With Technologies Already in the Marketplace at Industrial Scale Coal to Gas Natural Sinks CCS Efficiency Nuclear Renewables

11 The Efficiency Wedge "Conservation may be a sign of personal virtue, but it is not a sufficient basis for a sound, comprehensive energy policy" (May 2001)

12 Efficiency/Conservation Use less energy (thermostat turndown) Purchase more efficient technology (such as HVAC or CFLs) Change O&M practices (set lighting to coincide with occupancy) Install renewable energy to displace electricity or gas (PV panels) Industrial Process (reengineer processes) Design buildings to use of natural light, shading and ventilation Waste less! Change lifestyle (smaller homes, ride sharing, public transport) Change equipment standards (MPG for cars, appliance efficiency) Remove old technology from distribution system (Australia) Change Building codes. Expand daylight savings time!

13 The Governor s Task Force on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy asked the Energy Center this policy question: How much should we spend on energy efficiency and renewable energy programs in Wisconsin and what could that achieve?

14 What is Achievable Potential? Technical: Amount of efficiency theoretically available without regard for cost. Economic: Amount of technical potential available at costs below avoided electric supply Achievable: Market acceptance of economic efficiency technologies with intervention Naturally occurring: Market acceptance of economic efficiency technologies without intervention

15 Market opportunities considered C&I EE new buildings unitary HVAC lighting remodeling boilers lighting retrofits chillers ventilation refrigeration motors compressed air systems fans and blowers pump systems industrial process water and wastewater agriculture Residential EE consumer electronics CFLs multifamily common area lighting furnaces central AC multifamily heating systems room AC water heaters new homes remodeling dehumidifiers low-cost direct install shell improvements clothes washers multifamily fuel switching Renewables commercial PV commercial solar thermal residential solar thermal C&I wood residue commercial wind anaerobic digesters

16 Results for Energy efficiency At current energy prices, after 5 years $75 to $120 million in annual funding (1 to 1.5% of electric and gas utility revenues) Potential savings: Electric peak demand 0.3 to 0.5% of total demand 10 to 20 percent of annual growth (2-3%/year) Electric energy 0.5 to 0.7% of total use 20 to 30 percent of annual growth (2-3%/year) Gas energy 0.2 to 0.4% of total use

17 Energy Efficiency After 5 years of program activities, the total effect of program efforts would be enough to: Defer the need for one average-size electric power plant; Save enough electricity to power between 170,000 and 240,000 Wisconsin homes; and Save enough natural gas to heat between 35,000 and 65,000 Wisconsin homes.

18 Sector contributions to combined potential 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Program costs C&I Residential Electric demand Electric energy Gas energy Range of uncertainty

19 Residential Programs: Energy

20 C&I programs Electric energy

21 Non-Energy Benefits Annual kwh Saved (Millions) Equivalent Metric Description: Electric Total Equivalent Metric Saved: Annual Electric Benefits CO 2 (tons) (1) 384, ,400 NOx (lbs.) 1,824,000-2,747,400 SO2 (lbs.) 3,904,000-5,880,400 HG (lbs.) Tons of Coal (2) 160, ,000 Jobs Years Created (3) 1,426-2,148 (1) CO 2, SOx, NOx, and Hg conversion factors are based on research by the Wisconsin Department of Administration s consultant for Focus on Energy Programs, PA Government Services for Focus Programs. (2) Assume one pound of coal to generate one kwh. (3) Job years, personal income and sales numbers are based on the PA Government Services report: "Economic Development Benefits: Interim Economic Impacts Report", March 31, Therm savings benefits are included.

22 Study Limitations Little hard data in some key areas; e.g., potential program participation (How do we get more people and businesses to take action?) Load management, real-time pricing and demand control approaches excluded (How much could that save?) Study does not account for environmental or economic advantages of saving energy vs. consuming it (Can we give credit for environmental benefits?) Study largely derived from tried-and-true program approaches (Could we be more innovative?)

23 What Happened as a Result of the Study? The legislature passed 2005 Act 141 which included several initiatives from the Governor's Task Force. Energy efficiency and customer sited renewable spending will increase from about $37 million/year to about $85 million/year or about 1.2% of revenues

24 Focus on Energy works with Wisconsin residents and businesses to install cost effective energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. Focus information, resources and financial incentives help to implement projects that otherwise would not get completed, or to complete projects sooner than scheduled.

25 Wisconsin Potential 200 FY04 FY05 FY03 0 FY Annual Budget ($ millions spent)

26 Who s on the leading Edge? California (total dollars) Vermont (percentage) New York (longstanding, large, stable) Minnesota (incorporating climate change initiatives with energy efficiency goals)

27 Annual Savings (millions of kwh) 1000 CA TX Wisconsin Potential NY CT MA WI NJ OR RI ME VT NH Annual Budget ($ millions)

28 What s Next? Increase awareness of EE opportunities in Wisconsin Especially opportunities in new residential and commercial construction, lighting, HVAC Incorporate EE in community planning Work toward meeting all growth with energy efficiency and renewable resources Increase research and demonstration of renewable fuels, biomass resources in state

29 Resources (potential study, bio study) /NPOWR/index.htm (nuclear study group) (Strategic Energy Assessment)