Kosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes

Transcription

1 Kosten und Strategien des Klimaschutzes Klimaänderungen Herausforderung für die Versicherungswirtschaft Verein zur Förderung der Versicherungswirtschaft Berlin, 17 November 2006, FB Rechtswissenschaft Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer

2 Cost-Benefit Approach to Climate Change Management: Climate Protection Benefits = Avoided Damages - - Adaptation Costs Mitigation Costs

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4 Tipping Points in the Earth System

5 Tipping Points in the Earth System

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7 Are there limits to adaptation? Dutch cow ready for sea level rise?

8 3 Mitigation costs Present value of world GWP loss [%] CO 2 stabilization level [ppmv] AIM A1B MARIA A1T MARIA A1B MiniCAM A1Fl

9 Mitigation gap for WBGU clim. window

10 Optimal Emissions vs Climate Sensitivity BAU CS[ C]= CS does matter!

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12 Conventional wisdom ITC reduces mitigation costs only in partial equilibrium models. Technological change is not a free lunch, it has its own opportunity costs.

13 Models in the IMCP Technological detail Calculus Welfare maximization Cost minimization Initial value problems Top Down Optimal growth models ENTICE-BR FEEM-RICE DEMETER-1CCS AIM/Dynamic-Global MIND 1.1 Simulation models E3MG Bottom Up Energy system models MESSAGE-MACRO GET-LFL DNE21+ Static equilibrium + recursive dynamics Computational general equilibrium models (CGE) IMACLIM-R

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15 Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann et al Mitigation Costs with ITC

16 Shadow Price with ITC Source: Edenhofer et al. 2006

17 Energy System and Hybrid Models

18 Energy System 2100 Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann et al. 2006

19 Carbon Management

20 Captured CO 2 and Total CO 2 Emissions Source: Edenhofer, Lessmann et al. 2006

21 Economists trying to guess the ultimate costs of limiting carbondioxide concentrations most estimates are at the low end below 1 %. The Economist September 9th 2006, p. 9 Sir Nicholas has tried to assess the future costs of climate change and has set them against the costs of cutting fossil-fuel usage enough to stabilise carbondioxide concentration in the atmosphere. His answer to the second part of his calculation is fairly uncontroversial. The Economist November 4th 2006, p. 14

22 Economic Damages in % of GDP Natural Scientists Kemfert-high Stern Review 25 in % GDP In % of GDP Environmental Scientists Nordhaus Kemfert-low Social Scientists Tol Temperature Temperature Increase Source: OECD (2003) and Kemfert (2004)

23 Economic Damages in % of GDP Natural Scientists Kemfert-high Stern Review 25 in % GDP In % of GDP Environmental Scientists Nordhaus Kemfert-low Social Scientists Tol Temperature Temperature Increase Source: OECD (2003) and Kemfert (2004)

24 Cost-Benefit Analysis Losses BAU: GWP % / 8.5% ( ) Losses CBA: GWP - 0.8% / 1.8% (2050) ; Cons % / 3.3%(2050)

25 Two Good Messages Induced Technological Change has a huge potential to reduce Mitigation Costs! The 2 C target is nearly an optimal climate protection target within the Cost-Benefit- Framework

26 Two Bad Messages Cutting greenhouse gase emissions will be relatively cheap: If appropriate technologies penetrate the market If suitable policy instruments are implemented

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28 Beyond Kyoto? Emissions Trading

29 Curing the Failures of EU-ETS Auctioning instead of free allocation Tighter caps More Competition by including additional sectors and regions

30 Comparison of new entrant allocation Source: Neuhoff et al. (2006)

31 Comparison of allocations to existing facilities Source: Neuhoff et al. (2006)

32 Global Climate & Energy Governance Emissions Trading / R&D Damage Compensation

33 Global Governance Emissions Trading Damage Compensation Global Competition

34 25000 RD&D budget vs. Crude Oil Prices all data are in 2004 real USD JAN 06 avg Conservation Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy Nuclear Fission Nuclear Fusion Power & Storage technologies Other Real Crude Oil Prices Source: IAE

35 Global Governance Emissions Trading Damage Compensation Global Competition Investment in Infrastructure

36 OECD North America Cumulative Energy Investment OECD Europe OECD Pacific Transition economies China Other Asia Latin America North Africa Other Africa Middle East billion dollars (2004) Oil Gas Electricity Coal The power sector absorbs more than 60% of developing countries investment needs, Source: IAE, World Investment Outlook

37 Investment in Infrastructure Towards Kyoto Plus? Kyoto Plus Atmospheric Stabilization Emissions Trading Damage Compensation Global Competition