POWER RESOURCE PLANNING & ERCOT UPDATE

Transcription

1 POWER RESOURCE PLANNING & ERCOT UPDATE I N T R O D U C T I O N B Y : C r i s E u g s t e r C h i e f O p e r a t i n g O f f i c e r P RESENTED BY: F r a n k A l m a r a z S V P, C o m m e r c i a l O p e r a t i o n s J a n u a r y 2 8, I n f o r m a t i o n a l O n l y

2 AGENDA PLANNING PROCESS SEASONAL PREPAREDNESS RESERVE MARGINS CUSTOMER PARTNERSHIP SUMMER OUTLOOK 2

3 RESERVE MARGIN TERMINOLOGY Supply Demand Resources Capacity Consumption Load Peak = High Demand Reserve Margin: The extent to which supply of available power resources exceeds the maximum amount demanded by our customers. 3

4 STRATEGIC TO EXECUTION VIEW OF ENERGY SUPPLY 25-Year: Strategic Planning Economic and population trends Planning for new resources and retirements Flex Path 5-Year: Detailed capital and O&M plans Financial goals 1-Year: Operational Planning Sales and purchases of power Seasonal Weekly Daily Hourly Strategic Day-to-day We strategically manage our resources for the demands of our community. 4

5 RIGOROUS OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT Involves representatives from across operations Full range of preparatory activities: Weather forecasting Reserve margin planning Testing, and system maintenance activities Major maintenance on our systems performed between summer and winter peak seasons 5

6 SEASONAL PREPAREDNESS Seasonal preventive & predictive maintenance System checks, procedure reviews & testing Demand Response testing Gas and coal supply analysis Net position analysis decisions on purchases or sales Supply audits & staging Certify Completion of Preparedness to Senior Management & ERCOT Transmission lines in service Capacitor bank maintenance Inspections & testing Load shed plan updates (emergency only) 6

7 Capacity (MW) OUR RESERVE MARGIN 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 20% Spruce 2 & MBL East added 32% CPS Energy Peak Demand and Resources Rio full capacity included in 2016 Deely mothballed in 2018 Flex Path Reserve Margin 21% 24% 36% 16% 13% 13% Peak Demand 4,000 Calendar Year Reserve Margin Peak Demand Including Wholesale Resources The period from included 2 strategic supply additions resulting in historically high reserve margins. 7

8 Reserve Margin (%) ERCOT RESERVE MARGIN ERCOT Annual Capacity, Demand and Reserve Forecast 25% 20% 13.75% Target Tighter reserve margin in ERCOT could result in higher wholesale prices this summer. 15% 10% 5% 21.8% 15.9% 12.1% 13.2% 13.8% 15.7% 16.5% 16.9% 8.1% * 9.3% 7.4% 0% Calendar Year * The Dec 2018 CDR forecast of 8.1% was decreased to 7.4% with the removal of 470 MW Gibbons Creek Plant, announced on 12/21/18. Low ERCOT reserve margin could lead to higher market prices this summer. Our reserve margin helps protect customers from exposure to high prices. 8

9 CPS ENERGY CUSTOMER PROGRAMS Commercial Demand Response 100 MW My Thermostat Rewards 100 MW Reduce My Use Program 12 MW Total 212 MW We partner with over 220,000 customers to protect from high market prices and avoid additional transmission costs. 9

10 CURRENT CAMPAIGN Educate customers on programs & rebates Reinforce extreme weather impact on energy bills Encourage business customers to sign up for Manage My Account Website, billboards, bus signs, radio, print ads, and digital advertising in dual languages that reach our diverse customer base. 10

11 ERCOT MARKET OUTLOOK WINTER/SUMMER 2019 ERCOT Winter Forecast Normal temperatures / above normal rain through March adequate resources Precipitation Summer Outlook Normal temperature and rainfall outlook El Nino conditions and end of drought are the drivers 7.4% reserve margin forecasted due to load growth and delays / cancellations of planned generation projects Temperature Above average rainfall over the last few months ended drought conditions. Normal to moderate temperatures this coming summer. 11

12 CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR SUMMER ,272 MW Summer 2019 Reserve Margin = 886 MW, or 16% 5,386 MW We continue to manage our reserve margin to meet the needs of the community, and have the expertise to create solutions should we need additional resources Resources Available Expected Peak Demand 12

13 FLEXIBLE PATH TO MANAGING RESERVE MARGIN Energy Efficiency Demand Response Additional renewable energy Short-term purchases Flexible Generation Options Energy storage Innovative Distributed Energy programs More to Come! 13

14 Thank You

15 Appendix

16 GLOSSARY Term Acronym (if applicable) Resources - Capacity, Demand & Reserves CDR Decommissioning - Electric Reliability Council of Texas ERCOT Layup / Mothball - Peak Demand - Reserve Margin - Definition Electrical Generation facilities available to meet customer demand on an as-needed basis. Periodically, ERCOT issues a public report that projects these market metrics for future months. Planned shut-down and permanent removal from service of equipment, plant, etc. Entity that manages the flow of electric power on the Texas Interconnection that supplies power to Texas customers - representing 85% of the state's electric load. The deactivation and preservation of equipment / production facility to prevent corrosion damage and allow for future return to service. The maximum periodic load demand imposed on a power supply system. (Total Resources - Firm Load Forecast) / Firm Load Forecast. Applies to the peak demand for one hour of the year. 16

17 RECENT GENERATOR ANNOUNCEMENTS CHANGES TO RESERVE MARGIN Generator Announcement Description of Change ERCOT Reserve Margin December 2018 CDR Baseline summer 2019 Reserve Margin 8.1% Gibbons Creek Generation Station (470 MW - Coal) S R Bertron Units (280 MW - Gas) From Seasonal Mothball to Indefinite Mothball status Announced 12/21/18 From Mothball to Decommissioned and Retired Permanently Announced 12/28/18 Sources: ERCOT Form Notice of Suspension of Operations of a Generation Resource as applicable to generating units above. 7.4% 7.4% (no change) 17