AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy. Karl-Heinz Poets AREVA South America

Transcription

1 AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy Karl-Heinz Poets AREVA South America

2 Energy market: continued growth announced tep Macroeconomics Energy demand multiplied by 2 by BUSINESS AS USUAL $ 2011 /barrel of oil Geopolitics Resources Environment 1990 Limitation of fossil resources Barils Production in barrels of oil tco 2 GHG emissions cut by half by BUSINESS AS USUAL 450ppm SCENARIO % Nuclear Economics +60% Coal +70% CO 2 price x2 Fuel price x2 Nat. gas CCGT Reference case Energy demand: x2 by 2050 Energy independance and security of supply Ineluctable decline of fossile resources + pressure on prices GHG emissions: goal= 50% reduction by 2050 Energy cost, stability, predictability WEO Scenario Global primary demand in energy* Demand in nuclear energy* Demand in renewable energies* +1.2% / year +1.9% / year +2.4% / year Source: IEA ETP: reference scenario UNFCC, CERA 2009 * Billions of toe AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.2

3 After Fukushima, the Fundamentals for Nuclear Energy remain Unchanged Drivers Need for more electricity production capacity Climate change Fundamentals Energy demand multiplied by 2 by 2050 Greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by half by 2050 Geopolitics Fossil resources Construction and operating costs Financing Public acceptance Energy independence and security of supply imperative Limited resources, short and mid-term perspectives show rising prices of fossil energies Marginal impact on Gen 3 NPP new builds and limited impact on existing NPPs Access to financing restricted to new build NPP projects complying with the highest safety standards Public acceptance concerns favour nuclear technology leaders promoting highest safety standards AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.3

4 Global nuclear capacity is projected to increase by 54% by 2030 AREVA 2011 forecast of evolution of the global nuclear installed base (Net output, GW) % (258) installed base Life-end Life-extensions 1 New-builds 2030 installed base 1. Including power uprates AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.4

5 Major energy policy developments announced since Fukushima USA Construction/achievement of 3 reactors confirmed; 73 licenses to operate 60 years granted by August 2012, 80 years now being studied United Kingdom Introduction of the new energy bill in the UK which includes a tripling of funds by 2020 to support lowcarbon power generation France ( CPN held in Sept. 12) Support to nuclear industry (domestic and export); Closure of Fessenheim in 2016; Confirmation of the recycling solution Germany Phase-out confirmed in 2011 China Ongoing new build projects resumed late 2012, with accelerated move towards generation III reactors Japan 1st reactors restarted in 2012; Creation of a new safety authority; Announcement of a potential new energy policy to be re-assessed AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.5

6 AREVA Group Safety is the Cornerstone of our Strategy Safety of our Customers Supporting utilities in demonstrating and upgrading the safety of their fleet Safety of our Operations Maintaining the highest level of safety throughout the lifecycle of our nuclear facilities Safety of our Products A wide new-generation reactor portfolio that offers the highest safety features Reduced accident frequency rate (number of accidents per million hours worked) from 6.6 in 2004 to 1.7 in 2011 AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.6

7 360 + Nuclear Reactors are served by AREVA North America O&M support 122 M&FE 98 United Kingdom O&M support 1 M&FE 15 Central Europe & Nordic Countries O&M support M&FE Russia & CIS O&M support 5 M&FE 3 Europe Middle East & Africa Asia South America O&M support 4 O&M support 72 M&FE 75 India M&FE 7 O&M support 17 M&FE 90 M&FE 2 Reference year: reactors for M&FE AREVA serves 360+ reactors 257 reactors for O&M support AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.7

8 Post-Fukushima safety upgrades investment will only have a marginal impact on the profitability of nuclear Impact of post-fukushima safety upgrade investment on nuclear profit margin /MWh + ~1-2 /MWh Investment required for post- Fukushima safety upgrade packages has been estimated in 2012 between 100m and 200m per unit by the European Commission Such safety upgrades would only increase the cost of generating electricity from nuclear power between 1 and 2 euros by MWh and would not jeopardize its competitiveness Cost of electricity Impact of safety upgrades Selling price (wholesale) * Main assumptions: remaining plant lifetime 30 years / plant output 1,000 MWe / works spanned over 5 years / load factor 85% / WACC 8% AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.8

9 From Safety Alliance to Forward Alliance In the next decade, 150+ new reactors will be operated after license renewal AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.9

10 Extending the lifetime of a nuclear power plant for years is highly profitable Life extension project value creation for an amortized nuclear plant of 1,000 MW million / GW 2,500 2,000 1,500 Gross margin generated 20 years extension 10 years extension 1, Investment cost (including post-fukushima safety upgrades)* 0 50 /MWh 60 /MWh Electricity price Revenues generated by nuclear power plants lifetime extension programs exceed the costs incurred for implementing them * source: OECD, NEA The Economics of Long-term Operation of Nuclear Power Plants 2012, EDF 2012 AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.10

11 AREVA and ATMEA Nuclear New Build Perspectives for EPR and ATMEA1 ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING BIDS BIDS TO COME (BILATERAL) EDF Hinkley Point C Units 1-2 CGNPC Taishan 3-4 NPCIL Jaitapur 1-2 Turkey Sinop Project, 4 units Fennovoima Pyhäjoki TVO OL4 JAEC CEZ Temelin 3-4 Saudi Arabia Poland - PGE UK - GDF Suez Iberdrola South Africa - ESKOM Sweden - Vattenfall Vietnam - EVN Argentina - NA-SA Malaysia - MNPC UAE - ENEC USA - EDF / PPL / Duke Energy Hungary Canada AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.11

12 Global leadership for the construction of Gen III+ reactors (EPR) Percentage of completion in %, as of June 30 th 2012 (AREVA scope) Olkiluoto 3 82% complete (Supply of a turnkey power plant) Flamanville 3 62% complete (Supply of a Nuclear Steam Supply System) Taishan 1 & 2 79% complete (Supply of 2 nuclear islands) AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.12

13 EPR: unique lessons learned on projects Evolution between OL3 and Taishan Engineering Number of engineering hours on the Nuclear Steam Supply System scope -60% Construction Duration of construction (from 1st concrete to dome installation) -50% Procurement Average procurement time (reliability of procurement planning) -65% Total Total construction time (from 1 st concrete to 1 st divergence) -40% 50% of the Taishan personnel had participated in OL3 or FA3 projects AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.13

14 1st of a kind projects are not representative of the EPR cost, which keeps decreasing offer after offer Evolution of EPR levelised cost of electricity in Western Europe / MWh st of a kind (Flamanville 3) Recent offers Target AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.14

15 EPR is competitive against other power generation technologies Levelised cost of electricity of various technologies in Western Europe / MWh EPR target EPR 1st of a kind Gas CCGT Coal Onshore wind AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.15

16 CONCLUSION 2 years after Fukushima incident, AREVA has a brilliant future in nuclear energy: New builds with EPR and ATMEA Installed Base with fuels, services, life time extension AREVA Forward-looking Nuclear Energy LAS-ANS, BUENOS AERES June 2013 p.16