Paul Gipe, wind-works.org

Transcription

1 Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, CEERT, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, MSU, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, TREC, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.

2 Sponsors: Indiana University Purdue University, Center for the Built Environment, and Jensen Cabinets Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsors.

3 Overview of Worldwide Wind Development By Paul Gipe

4 Lackawanna, New York North Americans Have Been Dabbling Around the Edges of Renewable Energy Policy Little Recognition of the Crisis Facing the Continent

5 Complacency is Not a Policy Inaction is Not an Option Skibsted Fjord, Denmark

6 The Troika of Meeting Demand Conservation #1 Use Less Improve Efficiency #2 Do More with Less Renewable Energy #3 Invest in the Future Fuchskaute Höhe Westerwald, Germany

7 The Result in the Nies-Gipe Household

8 Wind Energy Has Come of Age Colorado California

9 Montefalcone, Italy

10 Galicia, Spain

11 Why Now? Wind Works Greater Reliability Productivity Improved More Efficient Taller Towers Costs Declined Economies-of-Scale Sales Price in US$/kW Yield in kwh/m2/yr Sales Price 200 Yield Year

12 Northern Ireland 40 m, 500 kw 80 m, 1.8 MW Kincardine, Ontario

13 We Know What Works...and What Doesn t Eole, Cap Chat Vortec

14 2007 World Wind Capacity Megawatts (Thousands) Europe North America Asia Year

15 World Wind Capacity 2007 North America 19% Africa 1% ~90,000 MW Asia 18% South America 1% Europe 61%

16 2007 World Wind Capacity 18,000 MW 57,000 MW 17,000 MW

17 European Wind Capacity ,400 1, ,100 22,000 2,500 2,200 15,000 2,

18 North American Wind Capacity ,800 17,

19 Wind Energy is a Real Business US$50 Billion in 2007 O&M 4% Project Development 64% Electricity Sales 32%

20 Wind Growing Rapidly Germany: ~2,200 MW/yr 30,000 MW by 2012 Spain: ~1,700 MW/yr USA: ~1,800 MW/yr India: ~1,100 MW/yr Growth: 20%-40%/yr ~1% of World Supply

21 Wind Market Comparison Thousand MW Total Spain Germany USA Renewable Tariffs Launched Renewable Tariffs Launched Year

22 World Major Wind Markets Germany USA Spain India China Total MW in 2007

23 US-Canada Wind Market MW/Year (Thousands) 6 5 Canada USA 4 Production Tax Credit (Subsidy) Year

24 2007 Wind Capacity Indiana & Michigan Rank Texas California Illinois Ontario Pennsylvania Wisconsin Indiana Michigan Ohio Megawatts (Thousands)

25 North American Market Major Players USA Florida Power & Light (50% of Market) Scottish Power Électricité de France (EnXco) Eon? Canada Trans Alta (Utility) Suncor (Oil, Tar Sands) Enbridge (Gas)

26 North American Market USA GE! Vestas Siemens (Bonus) Suzlon (India) Canada GE Vestas Enercon Other (Vensys) Major Suppliers

27 Why Wind? Reduces Use of Fossil & Nuclear Fuels Most Cost- Effective of New Renewables Relatively Benign

28 Wind is Modular Quickly Installed When Needed As Needed Where Needed By Anyone Tehachapi, California

29 Wind is Flexible Scale Big or Small Projects Location Time Near or Far Short Lead Times Ownership Local or Absentee

30 Wind Energy s Benefits Clean & Green (Mostly) No SOx, NOx, or CO2 Renewable Net Positive Energy Balance (4-6 months) Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo Does Not Consume Water Modular = Flexible... and Can be Removed

31 Wind Energy s Impacts Aesthetics or Intrusiveness Erosion & Scarring from Roads Length, Width, Number and Slope Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect Climate? Noise--They are Audible Wildlife Habitat Disruption Bird & Bat Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions

32 Birds & Bats Cros de Gerand, France Before & After Studies of Big Projects Studies Necessary for Small Projects? Paul Gipe & Assoc.

33 Birds & Bats Serious Problem Tarifa? Altamont Pass (900-1,300 Raptors/yr) A Concern Elsewhere No Quick Fixes--No Panaceas Stripes & Whistles Don t Work Altamont Pass, Calif.

34 Both Small & Large Turbines Eliminate Horizontal Perches & Roosts No Lattice Towers with Horizontal Members Avoid Heavy Concentrations of Birds Mortality Rate Function of Swept Area, Not Rotor RPM! Paul Gipe & Assoc.

35 Mortality Rate 73 Deaths in 35 years Most in Construction Highest Mortality Rate USA & NL 3 with Small Turbines 1 Member of the Public German Parachutist Paul Gipe & Assoc.

36 Public Safety No Passerby Killed or Injured Ice Throw Max. 100 m 1.5 X Height Post Warnings Blade Throw Suicides Attractive Nuisance

37 Renewable Tariffs: Trend Growing in North America? Husum, Germany

38 Renewable Tariffs in North America.. Unthinkable? Yes--Just 3 years ago Today? No Now Possible Growing Trend in both USA & Canada WindShare, Toronto

39 Ontario s Standard Offer Program The Most Progressive Renewable Energy Policy in North America in Two Decades Igny, Lorraine, France

40 Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand Ontario s Standard Offer Contracts Most Renewables Inclusive--Open to All <44kV, <10 MW No Program Cap

41 Ontario s Standard Offer Contracts Wind, Hydro, Biomass: $0.11/kWh Solar PV: $0.42/kWh Inflation Adjustment: 20% Excluding Solar PV (punitive? Term: 20 Years Voreifel, Germany

42 Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe Feed Law-Germany Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Quota-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Ontario

43 Ontario SOC Results Small PV: 500 kw? Big PV: 500 MW? 100 MW Hydro & Biomass 850 MW Wind 50 MW Operational Freiburg, Germany

44 Ferndale, Ontario Ontario SOC Results 2/3 Wind (November-August 2008) Large Commercial Operators 99.7% Solar Large Central Stations

45 Ontario s SOCs: What s Wrong? Tariffs Too Low PV: 1/2 of What s Needed Wind: Only Windy Sites Biomass: 2/3 of What s Needed Inflation Adjustment Too Low 20% vs 50%: -2.5% ROI Excluding Solar Punitive? Noordoost polder, the Netherlands

46 Hamburg Landfill, Germany Renewable Tariff Design Periodic Review A Wise & Prudent Policy Ensures Prices are Right Ensures that the Program is Robust Enough

47 Ontario s Standard Offer Program What s Next? Revisit Prices (Tariffs) Increase Differentiation Differentiated Tariffs for Wind Inflation Indexing (60%) Add Offshore Wind Add Solar Thermal Igny, Lorraine, France

48 Wind Works! Paul Gipe & Assoc.