Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate?

Transcription

1 French Association for Energy Economics Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? June 16 th, th IAEE International Conference New York City, USA Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.1 French Association for Energy Economics Member International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE)

2 A political vision for a new energy system French President election: May 2012 September 2013: nation s Environmental Conference President François Hollande set an ambitious goal for the country: to make France a nation of environmental excellence by signing up to the international and European frameworks concerning the environmental challenges: 1. lever for economic and environmental development, 2. job creation, 3. increased spending power, 4. competitive advantage for businesses. Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.2 French Association for Energy Economics

3 Involvement of various stakeholders The Environmental Conference was underpinned by the principle dialogue between multiple stakeholders NGOs, trade unions, employer organizations, local authorities, the State and a greater involvement of members of parliament. Complemented by other governmental projects such as the social conference, the next phase of the decentralization process the competition policy Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.3 French Association for Energy Economics

4 Energy transition requirements The energy transition strategy is based on 3 principles: energy efficiency and sobriety the priority given to renewable energies reducing the proportion nuclear holds in the energy mix, from 75% to 50% by 2025 Goal: to determine the most economically and environmentally sound and socially fair way to initiate the energy transition Process: a nationwide debate in 2013 on the energy transition in view of introducing a programming bill in 2014 Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.4 French Association for Energy Economics

5 The National Debate on Energy Transition Challenge Historical energy policies were decided for decades from Paris administrations From 2007 to 2010, a first debate on the environment was launched, a law on carbon tax was proposed but never passed In 2011, Energy Minister launched the 2050 Energy Commission under Jacques Percebois presidency: main findings on 2050 scenarios to decarbonize the energy mix The 2013 debate revealed social acceptation concerns The goal became during the debate: how to accommodate energy economics and social acceptance? Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.5 French Association for Energy Economics

6 National Debate on Energy Transition (DNTE): 4 scenarios Tendanciel Trend Total final demand (except non energy consumption, except air and water heat) Transition Laisser-Faire Laissez-faire Strong demand Réduction demande: decrease forte (50% en 2050) (50% in 2050) Medium demand Réduction demande: decrease modérée (20% in en 2050) 2050) Renewable priority Priorité renouvelables Diversification Diversification Diversification Diversification Nuclear priority Priorité nucléaire SOB EFF DIV DEC NégaWatt ADEME ANCREdiv Négatep Greenpeace GRDF RTEnouvmix RTEmed WWF ANCREsob DGECame ANCREele Global Chance ENCILOCARBrenf UFE Source: Carbon 4 consulting company Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.6 French Association for Energy Economics

7 Methodology Comparing the 4 debated scenarios 1 2 Energy demand evolution Energy supply Which energy vector to prioritize? Which energy source for a vector? Model assumptions (exogenous variables) Energy transition instruments (public policies, technological development, etc) Energy transition instruments impacts Energy demand and supply evolution by scenario (Priamary/final energy demand in Mtep by sector, energy mix) Source: Carbon 4 consulting company Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.7 French Association for Energy Economics 7

8 Instruments impact and results Scenarios for energy transition in France Housing Final energy demand for housing: scenario DEC Final energy demand for housing : scenario DIV Final energy demand for housing : scenario EFF Final energy demand for housing : scenario SOB Source: Carbon 4 consulting company Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.9 French Association for Energy Economics 9

9 Instruments impact and results Scenarios for energy transition in France Transport Final energy demand for transport: scenario DEC Final energy demand for industry : scenario DIV Final energy demand for industry : scenario EFF Final energy demand for industry : scenario SOB Source: Carbon 4 consulting company Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.10 French Association for Energy Economics 10

10 Instruments impact and results Final energy consumption and fossil fuel consumption decrease Final energy consumption decrease in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2010 Final fossil fuel consumption decrease in 2030 and 2050 compared to 2010 Source: Carbon 4 consulting company Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.12 French Association for Energy Economics

11 Scenarios have been discussed. Key findings Many local initiatives are proposed Energy Transition process in France Status as of June 16 th, 2014 The ways to reach the targeted share of nuclear in power generation are still debatable and involve solving lots of issues The regulation is challenged as the current market design may not fit with the proposed solutions. Finally, smart grids are likely to become the major degree of freedom Need to account for competitiveness, social acceptance and environmental concerns. The National Council for Energy Transition (CNTE) is preparing the Bill to be voted by the Parliament Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.14 French Association for Energy Economics

12 Today, according to the Debate agenda, the draft programming Bill should be discussed in the Parliament. As of today (June 16 th, 2014) no draft Bill has been proposed by the French Government Stakeholders are pushing for their privileged options, amongst which: Go/no-go for 50 billion to revamp and life extension of the nuclear fleet Update market design including high REN penetration (capacity markets, subsidies levels and extension, ) Energy Transition in France Status and conclusion to be followed Concurrently another major reform is been prepared on a regional governance reshuffling. Advice : please Google energy transition in French websites. Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.15 French Association for Energy Economics

13 Active energy markets and policies discussions in French IAEE Affiliate conferences Follow us on Or contact Or THANK YOU

14 END Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.17 French Association for Energy Economics

15 Appendix The draft Programming Bill Energy Transition in France: What issue for a unique in depth debate? - June 16 th p.18 French Association for Energy Economics