LEAD Pakistan. Managing Reduction in Water Flows in the Indus River System The Emerging role of IRSA. Managing Shared Basins: October 19 th, 2017

Transcription

1 LEAD Pakistan Managing Shared Basins: Managing Reduction in Water Flows in the Indus River System The Emerging role of IRSA October 19 th, 2017

2 Speaker Profile Engr. Shafqat Masood Water Resources Expert

3 Sequence of Presentation I. The Indus River Basin II. Water Agreements III. Security of Water Resource IV. Way Forward

4 I THE INDUS RIVER BASIN

5 The term Indus includes its five main tributaries, i.e. Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas Western Rivers Eastern Rivers Contd..

6 Total area for the Basin is around 350,000 square mile. Major portion lies in Pakistan and rest in Azad/Occupied Kashmir and India. Out of 37 million acre of irrigable area 31 million acre lies in Pakistan and remaining in Azad/Occupied Kashmir and India. Pakistan s economic survival is heavily dependent on surface water. More than half of the country receives less than 300 mm annual rain fall. Contd..

7 Two third of the Water supply is snow-fed and originates in Kashmir. It was most unfortunate that the Boundary Line was drawn with-out any consideration of the then existing irrigation system. The Indus Water Treaty 1960 could not be negotiated appropriately by Pakistan, and we continue to suffer on account of this blunder.

8 II - WATER AGREEMENTS

9 1. The Indus Water Treaty 1960 Regarding cross-boundary Water Issues 2. Water Apportionment Accord 1991 Regarding sharing amongst the four provinces

10 The Indus Water Treaty 1960 Signed on September 19, 1960, through mediation by the World Bank. There are twelve articles and eight annexures of the agreement to describe the rights and obligations of the parties. The Treaty provides a self-governing procedure for the settlement of differences and disputes. Both the countries agreed to create each a permanent post of Commissioner for Indus Waters, who will be representative of his government for all matters arising out of the Treaty. Contd..

11 India was given away the exclusive use of three Eastern Rivers i.e. Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use of all waters of Western Rivers i.e. Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India shall not interfere with the three Western Rivers except for the following uses; Domestic use Non-consumptive use Agricultural use (limited) Generation of hydro-electric power (Run of River) Storage works (limited) Two storage dams, eight link canals and six barrages were constructed in Pakistan as replacement works. Contd..

12 Tarbela Mangla

13 Water Apportionment Accord 1991 The Accord was signed on March 16, 1991 and comprises of 14 Paras. Three Paras 2, 4, and 14 (b) are concerning the distribution mechanism for water. Six Paras 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, and 11 are relevant to development works. Para 6 reads as under: The need for storage, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognized by the participants for planned future agricultural development Contd..

14 Para 7 recognizes the need for certain minimum escapages below Kotri, to check sea intrusion. It was, therefore, agreed that further studies would be undertaken to establish the minimal escapages. Para 13 envisages creation of Indus River System Authority (IRSA).

15 III - SECURITY OF WATER RESOURCE

16 1. Sustainability of Water Resource 28 MAF (16%) was lost at the time of signing of IWT 1960 and now India has initiated the process of partially regulating the flow of Western Rivers indicated as under; Year Eastern Rivers Western Rivers Total Note: All figures in MAF / Annum Although, the Treaty has reasonably sustained and delivered, so far, despite ups and downs in Indo-Pak relations, but the recent threat by the Modi s Government to abrogate the Treaty should not be ignored. The Current/Capita is around 1050 m 3 and Pakistan is heading towards Water Scarcity Contd..

17 Contd..

18 2. Reduction in Storage Capacity Around 1/3 rd reduction in our storage reservoirs have already taken place due to siltation. We need to plan for suitable replacement infrastructure at the earliest. 3. Inter-Provincial Distribution of Water Erratic pattern of flow i.e. 172 to 97 MAF / Annum, and 80% flow taking place during the months of June, July and August. Three different distribution ratios existing in the Accord. Seasonal demands and Time lag within the System. System Losses and Gains Interpretation of the distribution Clauses. Contd..

19 Flow Volumes Maximum = Minimum = Average = MAF Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan System Losses (Av) = Escapage D/S Kotri (Av) = Contd..

20 4. Environmental Issues Degradation of river based echo system Change in ground water balance (qualitative & quantitative) Due to stoppage of water in Eastern Rivers, the pumping of the ground water is exceeding the rate of recharge and resulting in depletion of the Aquifer. This is also resulting in the degradation of the irrigated areas due to deposition of salt. 5. International Water Laws The Indians are very well organized technically as well as on International Water Laws. To counter these, institutional preparedness on the part of Pakistan is not up-to the mark. The Indian interventions to influence the flows into Pakistan requires to be fully understood by our experts and managers. Contd..

21 6. Climate Change Climate Change will certainly have an impact on water availability due to temperature rise, change of rainfall pattern, drought, floods and other disasters. 7. Indian Dams vs Our Weakness Office of Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Water, Ministry of Water & Power, and the Provincial Irrigation Department are expected to assess the impact of nefarious interventions by India on Western Rivers and to take prompt action. The attached Press-Headlines would indicate the seriousness of the situation; Contd..

22 Daily News January, 2011 Daily Nawa-i-Waqat - Jaunary, 2011 Contd..

23 August, 2011 August, 2011 Daily Dawn - July 30, 2012 Contd..

24 Daily Nawa-i-Waqat - June 25, 2010 Daily Nawa-i-Waqat, March 19, 2012 We Need to Put Our House in Order

25 IV WAY FORWARD

26 IV Way Forward 1. To establish a National Water Commission (Think-Tank) on trans-boundary water issues; to compile and analyze critically the historical record of IWT negotiations and correspondence etc. to synthesize lessons from the IWT in the context of emerging and long-term impacts on Pakistan. to work out Pakistan s position on potential water projects on the Indian side. to plan a strategy for the Kabul River sharing with Afghanistan. 2. IWT signed between India & Pakistan is a legal document and number of Techno- Legal issues are under contest. To protect our water rights we must possess proper strength in International Water Laws and organize a panel of Pakistani Legal Experts to assist our Commissioner for Indus Waters. Contd..

27 3. The emphasis should be laid to work for optimal development of the available water resources within the allowable jurisdiction of the shared river basins, which may become as one of the most helping solution to cope with water scarcity and conflict resolution issues. 4. The life of artificial reservoirs must be enhanced through all possible measure (catchment management, flushing of sediment if options are available). 5. Construction of at least one major multi-purpose storage reservoir be taken up on war footings. Dams do not consume water, rather improve the regulatory capacity of the system. 6. The most important issue in water sector is the Trust-Gap at the Inter-Provincial Level, it may be useful if technical experts from the stakeholders jointly analyze the situation. The finding of this technical body can be shared with public so that the contested issues are properly understood. Contd..

28 7. Reliable system of water measurement and transparency is absolutely indispensable to strengthen the mutual confidence amongst the stakeholders. 8. Capacity building of the Federal and Provincial Institutions dealing with water will be very useful to ensure their performance on sustainable basis. 9. The Fast-National University, Lahore has introduced the subject of Trans Boundary Water Issues at the graduate level. Similarly, LUMS has organized short courses on this important subject. This needs recognition at the government level for its expansion. Similarly, International Water Law should be part of the syllabi of our law institutes. 10. There is need to finalize the Feasibility of Mangla Marala Link to protect the canal systems on river Chenab.

29 Questions?