Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH

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1 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH 13 th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018

2 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 2

3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GtCO2eq/yr) World vs 1990 Industrialized Countries Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions GHG reductions - not to exceed 2 o C global warming Source: M. Meinshausen, based on UNEP Human Development Report 2009 Status world EU Commission/EDGAR Target World Best guess: +2.7 o Climate Action Tracker Target Emerging Countries -50% % Target Industrialized Countries -55% -75% % % An agreed target since UN Climate Change Summit, Copenhagen

4 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 6

5 Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure Will plugged mobility the one and only solution in future? 7

6 CO 2 Mobility Scenarios Transport emissions ww 10 Source: Shell Mountains Scenarios 2013; *ExxonMobile 2014, BP Gt 9 CO 2 /yr, tank to wheel % km -30% CO2/tkm +135% tkm -40% CO2/tkm +70% km -40% CO2/km Electric driving share PC (% km): Navigation Aviation Rail CV MC&PC ExxonMobile 2014 BP 2014 Road CO2 target CO 2 target acc. to world GHG target traffic increase* PT efficiency Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient 100% plugged road traffic?

7 CO 2 Mobility Scenarios Transport emissions in/from Germany, wtw 250 mio t CO whell to wheel +100% km -20% CO2/km +60% km -20% CO2/km +13% km -39% CO2/km Source : IFEU, Tremod 5.3, IEA (Navigation) Navigation Aviation Rail CV PC Diesel PC Gasoline Motorcycles Total Road MC&PC CO2 target acc. to GHG target for industr. countries Efficiency measures and plugged cars not sufficient traffic increase* PT efficiency

8 Primary energy German Energiewende Status and targets 5000 TWh 4000 Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA Energy Concept of German Government 2010; Nuclear Exit in 2022 decided 2011 Extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17) -20% vs % 80% Nuclear Gas Oil % Coal % GHG vs % -50% 40% Total Fossil % 20% -80%..-95% RE electricity demand EEG % RE share +600% Renewable electricity demand vs today even with high efficiency achievements 10

9 German Energiewende Actual extension plan for RE electricity (EEG17) Status and targets Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA, Capacity installed (GW) Electricity produced (TWh) x5 x7 +600% Renewable electricity from photovoltaic and wind 11

10 Battery Electric Vehicles Charging in urban areas Concept and design by M. Bargende 12

11 Battery Electric Vehicles Assessment of critical raw materials for BEV s Phosphor Titanium Nickel Aluminium Gold Molybdenum Lithium Manganes Ferric Tellurium Zircon Copper Indium Silver Tantalum PGM Rare earth Cobalt Magnesium Chromium PGM: Platinum-group metals Source: Federal Environment Agency, UBA-FB ,

12 Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure More reasons to keep mobility unplugged.. Relieve to electric grid, permanent RE power demand and electricity prices by decoupling of energy generation and transport.. Long distance and heavy good transport.. Multiple mode usage of cars But how to get sustainable and staying unplugged? 14

13 Energy and Powetrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Regarded as the future mobility option Zero emission, best efficiency Cost penalty due to battery Driving range and top speed handicap Insufficient coverage and business models for charging infrastructure IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga Increasing share up to 10% in 2020 acc. to EU regulation Main CO 2 -effect until 2040 beyond efficiency measures Limited volume potential Fuel vs food dilemma 15

14 Energy and Poertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Zero emission, high efficiency Decoupling of energy generation and consumption is driver for H 2 -society in Japan High vehicle oncosts Lack of H 2 -infrastructure 16

15 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Electrofuels, efuels PtF, PtG, PtL H 2 CO 2 + 3H 2 H 2 O + CH 3 OH CO 2 + 4H 2 2H 2 O + CH 4 CO 2 + 3nH 2 2nH 2 O + (CH 2 ) n CO 2 -Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis) 17 PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid

16 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 18

17 PtL Conversion efficiency Electrofuels Power to Liquid PtL efficiency 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% System efficiency of water electrolysis 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Overall chemical reaction: 3 H 2 O + CO 2 = - CH /2 O H 2 O Mass balance: 3/7 kg H /7 kg CO 2 = 1 kg fuel + 24/7 kg O /7 kg H 2 O Source: A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No kwh/kg fuel / η PtL = 3/7 * kwh/kg H 2 * 1/ η electrolysis + 22/7* 0.14 kwh/kg CO 2 * 1/ η CO2-capture + 22/7 * 0.5 kwh/kg fuel 19

18 PtL cost ( / 10kWh) Electrofuels Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio /Mwfuel Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years Capital costs: 7,5% Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest w/o taxes Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Europe GmbH: 0,99 /l, η PtL =65%, CO 2 ex biogas Engine Congress, Baden-Baden Electricity cost ( ct/kwh el.) Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and 2012 Sunfire GmbH, Dresden: 0,95 /l, η PtL =68%, CO 2 captured from biogas Fraunhofer Tagung Energie, Dresden

19 h/a PtL cost ( / 10kWh) Electrofuels Power to Liquid, PtL cost w/o taxes Invest (η PtL=50%): 3.4 mio /Mwfuel Start-up & closing cost: 20% of invest Utilization: 5,000 h/a, 25 years Capital costs: 7,5% Maintenance, insurance: 4% p.a. of invest w/o taxes *FVV Forschungvereinigung Verbrennungskraftmaschinen e.v. Research association for combustion engines Fraunhofer, IWES, August 2017: Potentiale von PtL- und H 2 -Importen, direct air capture Prognos AG Sunfire 230 FVV* : RENEWABLES IN TRANSPORT 2050 Expertise by Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Vision Import Germany Power cost ( ct/kwh el.) Based on data from A. Jess et alii, CIT 2011, 83, No. 11; T. Smolinka et alii, Fraunhofer ISE, FCBAT 2011; A. Voß IER Uni Stuttgart, 2008, W. Maus, 2010 and t.o. CO 2 air capture cost: 460 /t

20 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Greenhouse gas targets Sustainable energy and powertrains Electrofuels, efuels De-Fossilisation scenarios Conclusions 22

21 Energy shares De-Fossilization Scenarios Energy shares and CO 2 -intensity of energy 100% % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Fossil fuels/total energy Fossil fuels/total fuels 79% 65% 36% CO2-Intensity, wtw (g/kwh) Fossil fuels Electricity mix 10% Biofuels 0% Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

22 Vehicle energy demand per km CO2-emission, wtw CO2-emission, wtw De-Fossilzation Scenarios Effect of vehicle and energy measures on total CO 2, wtw Efficieny effects Energy-mix effects Car fleet CO 2 100% 90% 80% Powertrain ICE Powertrain BEV 100% 90% 80% Electricity 100% 90% 80% BEV only 70% 60% 50% 70% 60% 50% Energy-mix 70% 60% 50% Measures w/o BEV 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Shell Pkw-Szenarien Alternativszenario, 2014 ICE: Internal Combustion Engine BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle incl. electric driven Plug-in Hybrids % 30% 20% 10% 0% % 30% 20% 10% 0% Measures mileage CO 2 targets to be achieved by combined vehicle and energy measures 24 Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

23 De-Fossilization Scenarios Energy split for 85% CO 2 reduction wtw Energy consumption 420 TWh -60 mileage 170 TWh FVV : 2050: TWh Shell 2014: 2040: 210 TWh Primary energy fp = primary energy factor 500 TWh -50 % 1,16 1,33 fp=2,0 250 TWh Fossil fuel demand: -88% Electric power demand: 175 TWh Fossil fuel Biofuel e-fuel El. Power 25

24 De-Fossilization Scenarios Powertrain Symposium Mio new released cars 89 88,5 ZEV: Zero Emission Vehicle, ICE Internal Combustion Engine 0, Total ICEmax ICEmin 76 Stuttgarter Symposium 2018: ZEV 2030: % 38 ZEVmax High forecast uncertainty requires dual strategies ZEVmin 10

25 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Technology options and share 2050 in energy consumption E-Drive Battery Fuel Cell 30% 10% IC-Engine Biomass Vegetable oils, Ethanol 10% Vegetable garbage, Alga O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Electrofuels, efuels PtF, PtG, PtL H 50% 2 CO 2 + 3H 2 H 2 O + CH 3 OH CO 2 + 4H 2 2H 2 O + CH 4 CO 2 + 3nH 2 2nH 2 O + (CH 2 ) n CO 2 -Recycling (Technical Photosynthesis) 27 PtF, PtG, PtL: Power to Fuel, Gas, Liquid

26 Energy and Powertrains for sustainable Mobility Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH A balanced mix of different drivetrains powered by renewable energy will be the optimum from an economical, ecological and social point of view. 13 th International AVL Symposium on Propulsion Diagnostics Baden-Baden, June 26-27, 2018