CGD/NESL/NCAR Strategic Planning

Transcription

1 CGD/NESL/NCAR Strategic Planning Purposes Frame things as they are NCAR Strategic Planning Process CGD Strategic Plan : NESL Strategic Plan (outline) (Draft) (bullet outline) Invitation for CAB input

2 NCAR Strategic Plan: Under Construction Led by Joe Tribbia and Peter Backlund Began at last October s UCAR members meeting breakouts on science opportunities and challenges Several more events were held during January Town Hall/Listening session at AMS annual meeting Discussion with NCAR Advisory Council Planning Council now meets biweekly Currently discussing imperatives and frontiers Next step: Zero order draft for town hall and small group discussions Higher order drafts will roll up Lab (e.g. NESL) plans

3 CGD/NESL Strategic Planning Factors CGD Strategic Plan : Now NESL Advisory Board.... Jan 2013 CESM Implementation and Science Plans 12:00 A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling : :00 NCAR is an NSF FFRDC.. 15:45 DOE Planning and Organization :15

4 THE CESM UNIVERSE NOAA NASA etc University Community Co-OP ASCR SciDAC BER CSSEF LABS cycles DOE Office of Science $$$ $$$ Science & Code & SE Science ACD CGD NSF MMM cycles NESL CISL NCAR HAO $$$

5 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : VISION To benefit society as the center of collaborative scientific research into the earth s climate. MISSION To discover the key processes in each component of the Earth s climate system and to understand the interactions among them; to represent this knowledge in community models that effectively utilize computing advances; and to apply these models and observations to scientific problems of societal relevance.

6 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : CONTEXT a critical level of effort is maintained in all areas through extensive collaborations with the greater CESM community.... CGD encourages and supports a triad of interdependent activities: fundamental collaborative research; community model development; application of these models as research tools.... Virtually all CGD resources are directly or indirectly targeted at contributing to the success of the CESM enterprise, either in the immediate or longer term. Numerical models of the earth system are : -- Tested against observations of past and present climate. -- Used for Climate Projections of possible future climates. -- Operated in NWP mode to assess aspects of model performance. -- Applied with data assimilation capabilities for Climate Predictions.

7 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : CONTEXT a critical level of effort is maintained in all areas through extensive collaborations with the greater CESM community.... CGD encourages and supports a triad of interdependent activities: fundamental collaborative research; community model development; application of these models as research tools.... Virtually all CGD resources are directly or indirectly targeted at contributing to the success of the CESM enterprise, either in the immediate or longer term. Numerical models of the earth system are : -- Tested against observations of past and present climate. -- Used for Climate Projections of possible future climates. -- Operated in NWP mode to assess aspects of model performance. -- Applied with data assimilation capabilities for Climate Predictions.

8 CGD s Research Triad LOCAL (NCAR/NESL/CGD) and COMMUNITY GOVERNANCE Collaborative Earth System Research Fundamental Research into Climate Processes Community Model Development ADMINISTRATION, IT, and WEB SUPPORT

9 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : CONTEXT a critical level of effort is maintained in all areas through extensive collaborations with the greater CESM community.... CGD encourages and supports a triad of interdependent activities: fundamental collaborative research; community model development; application of these models as research tools.... Virtually all CGD resources are directly or indirectly targeted at contributing to the success of the CESM enterprise, either in the immediate or longer term. Numerical models of the earth system are : -- Tested against observations of past and present climate. -- Used for Climate Projections of possible future climates. -- Operated in NWP mode to assess aspects of model performance. -- Applied with data assimilation capabilities for Climate Predictions.

10 CGD / CESM Governance IMMEDIATE LONGER-TERM DIRECT INDIRECT CESM CSEG CVmix BIASES Releases PIO CLIMATE CMIPs ENABLING PREDICTIONS COMMUNITY Dynamical Cores RESEARCH DOE C-A CORE EaSM CPTs MIPs Data Flow CSSEF AMOC NMME NCAR/NESL/CGD

11 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : CONTEXT a critical level of effort is maintained in all areas through extensive collaborations with the greater CESM community.... CGD encourages and supports a triad of interdependent activities: fundamental collaborative research; community model development; application of these models as research tools.... Virtually all CGD resources are directly or indirectly targeted at contributing to the success of the CESM enterprise, either in the immediate or longer term. Numerical models of the earth system are : -- Tested against observations of past and present climate. -- Used for Climate Projections of possible future climates. -- Operated in NWP mode to assess aspects of model performance. -- Applied with data assimilation capabilities for Climate Predictions.

12 CGD STRATEGIC PLAN : INTERDISCIPLINARY CHALLENGES EARTH SYSTEM MODELING CHALLENGE SCALE-AWARE MODELING CHALLENGE CLIMATE PREDICTION CHALLENGE CLIMATE EXTREMES CHALLENGE HUMAN DIMENSIONS CHALLENGE.. NEXT

13 NESL STRATEGIC PLAN : Interdisciplinary Science Challenges Identify and model the processes responsible for weather, air quality and climate hazards Identify and model the processes that govern climate variability and change through this century and beyond Develop the scientific understanding of factors determining the predictability of the atmosphere on times scales from hours to decades

14 NESL STRATEGIC PLAN : Enabling Competitive Community Science Continued development and support of NCAR community models (WRF, CESM+WACCM) Development of a more unified weather-chemistryclimate prediction system Implement the Atmospheric Chemistry Center for Observational Research and Data (ACCORD)

15 FIN

16 1 EVOLVE TO A COMMON SOFTWARE INFRASTRUCTURE - could help navigate transition to more complex hardware - interchange components and sharing of accepted components - best pathway has community based decision process - Community Models must run efficiently on a large range of platforms, which could be problematic if common infrastructure is tied to common (complex) hardware. NESL will continue to develop models with low resolution suitable for common university hardware, as well as for the highest resolutions feasible on the supercomputers of the day - traditional components (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea-ice) of an earth system model have earth system components embedded (e.g. ecosystems, chemical reactions, biogeochemistry, humans) in non standard ways, complicating component interoperability and making no one component acceptable. Rather NESL is on a path to greater interoperability and promoting acceptable parameterizations within components, which should allow for simpler infrastructure. This strategy is a response to the Scientific Visiting Team recommendation to reduce vulnerability to funding fluctuations. - Community earth system models must be immediately responsive to a broad range of science requirements. NESL feels that the community governance of CESM does provide the focused rapid responses to CESM science needs, that ESMF did not. A recent example is the decadal prediction need for ocean data assimilation. There is a science rationale for diverse infrastructure not just politics and history. Accommodating both implicit and explicit air-sea flux calculations would not be simple. NESL infrastructure will target the simplicity and adaptability to respond rapidly to evolving science needs and to operate efficiently, as opposed to the generality of OASIS that negatively affects scalability.

17 2 CONVENE A NATIONAL CLIMATE MODEL FORUM - Opportunity for climate model data users - NESL would participate at an appropriate level that does not conflict with the annual CESM workshop and SSC/Working Group Decisions

18 3 NUTURE A UNIFIED WEATHER-CLIMATE MODELING EFFORT - many process can effect weather and climate - fast weather processes to test climate models to advance both - collaboration between operational forecast, data assimilation, climate and external researchers - many processes are more relevant to climate (e.g. high atmosphere, deep ocean, soils) and others to weather (e.g. initial conditions, orography rate of small scale precipitation and its phase) - the NESL/DOE CAPT project where climate models are run in forecast mode to quantify model error will continue without a unified model - collaborations with many disparate interests are unlikely to succeed on all fronts NESL has extensive external collaborations (e.g. CESM and WRF WGs, CPTs) and internal data assimilation efforts. - NESL s weather and climate modeling will collaborate on global configurations with regional grid refinement and 4-D scale-aware parameterizations providing regional downscaling (to weather and air-quality scales) and upscaling (e.g. topography, tropical convection) required by the science, which may also dictate separate weather and climate versions.

19 4 DEVELOP A PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE MODEL INTERPRETERS - National education and accreditation and training are in the university domain - NESL will react to university responses.

20 Responses to Supporting Steps/Needs Training and Reward System for Climate Model Developers - model development among the most challenging tasks in climate science NESL has multiple possible career paths for its model developers and strives to match each individual with the best fit. NCAR s Advances Study Program oversees the graduate fellowships and post-docs, but equity demands no preference for Climate Modelers Sustain State-of-the-Art Computing Systems for Climate Modeling - maintenance and upgrading of existing resources - research to transition to more complex hardware over next years - National facility only if existing capability is unaffected CISL Contribute to a Strong International Climate Observing System -International effort requiring U.S. support - number of earth observing satellite missions declining NESL scientists are members of NASA mission and instrument teams and committees NESL strives to make the best possible use of existing observations (e.g. CPTs, COSP)

21 Pursue Advances in Climate Science and Uncertainty Research NESL is advancing climate science and uncertainty quantification through participation in DOE s Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future. Enhance the IT Infrastructure for Sharing and Distributing Climate Model Data - Access to lager data volumes; data display, visualization and analysis CISL and NESL have initiated an end to end redesign of data flow with the aims of reducing the number of both bytes and operations.

22 NCAR Strategic Plan Under Construction Effort led by Joe Tribbia and Peter Backlund Higher Began at last October s members meeting breakouts on science opportunities and challenges Several more events were held during January Town Hall/Listening session at AMS annual meeting Discussion with NCAR Advisory Council Planning Council now meeting every two weeks Currently discussing imperatives and frontiers Next step: Zero order draft for town hall and small group discussions Higher order drafts will roll up Lab and Division Plans UCARBoardofTrusteesMeeting 22 22

23 CAB NSF/Universities SSC UCAR NCAR SSC-chair NESL/CGD Development WGs Application WGs NCAR co-chairs EaSM ; CPTs NESL/CGD CESM - Branches CESM - Trunk CESM Full Release Non-standard CESM versions

24 DOE/BER CAB NSF/Universities DOE Oversight And Coordination SSC SSC-chair NESL/CGD UCAR NCAR EaSM SciDAC LABS Development WGs Application WGs NCAR co-chairs EaSM ; CPTs NESL/CGD Non-standard CESM versions CESM - Branches CESM - Trunk CESM Full Release Non-standard CESM versions