Using MOVES2010 for Estimating On-Road GHG Emissions

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1 Using MOVES2010 for Estimating On-Road GHG Emissions David Bizot U.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality Southern Transportation & Air Quality Summit July 2011

2 Presentation Overview Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transportation sector Introduction to the MOVES model Options for using MOVES to estimate GHGs Useful resources 2

3 National Greenhouse Gas Emissions by End-Use Sector, 2009 Source: EPA report, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: EPA 430-R (April 2011) On the web: 3

4 National Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Transportation Sector, 2009 Source: EPA report, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: EPA 430-R (April 2011) On the web: 4

5 About MOVES2010 Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator Estimates total emissions & energy use from all on-road sources (cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) Can estimate emissions for years 1990 and Uses an updated software platform Modular database structure is easier to update Could eventually include other mobile sources (e.g., non-road, marine, locomotive, aviation sources) MOVES2010a released in December 2010 Includes new car and light truck GHG standards for model years 2012 and later Corrects impacts of CAFE standards for model years

6 Using MOVES to Estimate GHGs MOVES is EPA s recommended tool for estimating on-road GHGs at the state and local level CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4, and elemental carbon (black carbon) Can distinctly model different vehicle operating modes (e.g., driving, vehicle start-up, idling) Allows assessment of various strategies on GHGs MOVES is sensitive to strategies that affect speeds, fuels, vehicles, VMT, etc. Can be used with travel demand models or sketch planning tools Can estimate on-road GHG emissions at various geographic scales (national down to project level) 6

7 MOVES and Operating Modes MOVES improves emissions estimates by accounting for vehicle behavior through time Estimates are based on the amount of time vehicles spend in different operating modes Operating mode what the vehicle is doing (e.g., accelerating, braking, cruising, idling) Vehicles use different amounts of energy ( vehicle specific power or VSP) in different operating modes MOVES defines 23 operating modes for running: combinations of speed and VSP In addition, includes operating modes for starts, extended idling, etc. 7

8 Energy Consumption by Operating Mode MY 2010 Gasoline Passenger Car <25 mph mph >50 mph < >12 < >30 < >30 VSP (kw/tonne) 8 braking idle Energy in kj/hour

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10 MOVES Emissions Rates MOVES includes a different emissions rate for each combination of Source Age Group Operating Mode Gas-LDV-MY years low speed coast; 20 mph, VSP 0-3 kw/tonne Gas-LDT-MY years accelerating; 55 mph, VSP kw/tonne MOVES can calculate an emission inventory internally, or users can do this outside of MOVES by multiplying emission rates from MOVES by the appropriate activity factors 10

11 National MOVES GHG Estimates Match GHG Estimates Based on Fuel Sale Data Sale Data MOVES Gasoline Diesel 11

12 MOVES Analysis Scales 1. National scale Uses MOVES default fleet and vehicle activity data Not recommended for estimating emissions for a state or smaller geographic area; results will not be accurate 2. County scale Relies on user-supplied data for one or more counties (or other custom defined area) Used for generating data for regional emissions analyses 3. Project scale Relies on user-supplied data for a specific roadway or transit project Calculates emissions for user-defined links 12

13 Using MOVES at the County Scale Appropriate scale to estimate GHG emissions for: An individual county, several counties and/or portions of counties A metropolitan area An entire state, by modeling every county or defining a representative county(s) Better resolution than national scale Uses county-specific data for inputs such as vehicle mix, age distribution, VMT, fuels, etc. Could be used to examine GHG impacts of regional travel changes, if travel model is sensitive to them. For example: Addition of public transit / commuter rail Changes in traffic volumes, routes, or speeds 13

14 Using MOVES at the Project Scale Appropriate scale to estimate GHG emissions from a specific highway or transit project Could be used to examine GHG impacts of changes that affect driving behavior on a specific facility, such as Adding a lane to highway or arterial Synchronizing traffic signals along a roadway Adding or improving transit service on a route Requires detailed user input on how the change affects vehicle driving patterns 14

15 Useful Resources MOVES website: User guides, technical information, and presentations 15