CIAM Report 1/2011 scenario analysis based on projections of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation

Transcription

1 TFIAM CIAM Report 1/2011 scenario analysis based on projections of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation Irina A. Morozova Head of the Section of scientific-methodological basics of environmental impact assessment, transboundary transfer and state accounting Yulia S. Ignatieva Researcher of the Section of scientific-methodological basics of environmental impact assessment, transboundary transfer and state accounting SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR ATMOSPHERIC AIR PROTECTION SRI ATMOSPHERE Tel. +7 (812)

2 Major socio-economic and environmental policy documents of the Russian Federation: Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation till 2020 (approved by the Governmental decree of 17 Nov 2008, 1662-р); National security strategy of the Russian Federation till 2020 (approved by the Presidential decree of 12 May ); Energy strategy of the Russian Federation till 2030 (approved by the Governmental decree of 13 Nov р.); Transport strategy of the Russian Federation till 2030 г. (approved by the Governmental decree of 22 Nov р); Strategy of railroad transport development in the Russian Federation till 2030 (approved by the Governmental decree of 17 June р); Strategy of forestry sector development till 2020 (approved by decrees of the Ministry of industry and trade 248 and the Ministry of agriculture 482 of 31 Oct. 2008) Water resources strategy of the Russian Federation till 2020 (approved by the Governmental decree of 27 Aug р); State policy framework of the Russian Federation with regard to the Arctic till 2020 and beyond (approved by the Governmental decree of 18 Sept Пр-1986). 2

3 КДР Concept of long-term socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation till

4 ,4 1,0 Structure of economic growth 6,6 (GDP, %) 6,9 Efficiency 2,3 КДР ,7 2,1 0, ,6 0,7 0,2 0,6 0,1 0,1 4,6 2,5 0,4 2,8 0,1 2,2 2,7 1,3 0,7 0,8 0,6 0,8 0,4 1,2 0,5 0,6 0,6 0, ,5 Public income State investments and noninterest spendings of consolidated budget Investments Material export Oil price 4

5 Grouping of subjects of the Russian Federation with regard to their air emissions from stationary sources in 2009 Thous.tonns 5

6 Living conditions environment КДР значительное УЛУЧШЕНИЕ КАЧЕСТВА ПРИРОДНОЙ Improving СРЕДЫ И quality ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ of natural environmental УСЛОВИЙ ЖИЗНИ ЧЕЛОВЕКА, and формирование сбалансированной environmental conditions экологически ориентированной of living модели развития экономики и экологически конкурентоспособн ых производств «Экология производства» Industrial environmental поэтапное сокращение уровней воздействия на окружающую среду от всех safety антропогенных источников «Экология человека» Создание Higher экологически безопасной environmental и комфортной среды проживания населения, мест его работы и отдыха, иной социальной активности quality of living Environmentallyfriendly эффективного «Экологический бизнес» - создание экологического сектора business экономики «Экология природной Higher quality среды» сохранение и защита of ecosystems природной среды: Modernized system of environmental impact regulation новая система нормирования ПДВ на окружающую среду и т.д. Снижение удельных уровней воздействия на окружающую среду в 3-7 раза в зависимости от отрасли. установление Establishment нормативов качества of quality воды, воздуха, почвы, нормативов допустимой антропогенной standards нагрузки for и waters, т.д air, Сокращение к soils, and anthropogenic 2020 г.: -в 5 р. числа городов с высоким и очень высоким уровнем загрязнения -в 4 р. кол-во жителей, проживающих impact limit в неудовлет. values условиях Формирование Elaboration правил of экологического rules and procedures аудита, требований for environmental к разработке audit, технологий и т.д. -Рост рынка technology selection criteria etc. экодевелопмента, товаров и услуг в 5 раз новые методы территориального планирования, землепользования и застройки - сохранение естественных экосистем и т.д. Повышение New ecosystem-oriented approaches to territorial planning, land use and residential and commercial биопродуктивности. Восстановление видового construction разнообразия

7 Major trends in economic development of the Russian Federation Adaptation to changing dynamics of the global economy and of demand for hydrocarbons; increasing dependence of the national economic growth on foreign investments and state of the investment climate Exhaustion of potential existed in innovative sectors of the economy Identified need to overcome limitations of the economic development related to existing infrastructure (power generation, transport sectors) Decrease of economically active population in coupled with increasing demand in qualified personnel Increased economic competition on domestic and international markets 7

8 Key factors defining major options of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation: degree of development and realization of competitive advantages of the Russian Federation in energy sector, science and education, high-tech etc; development dynamics of institutions concerned with entrepreneurship and investment activities as well as competitiveness of companies; intensity of innovative retrofitting of converting industries and dynamics of labour capacity; dynamics of transport and energy infrastructure development; intensity of human potential; integration of Euro-Asian economic area. 8

9 Long-term development scenarios КДР Inertial - conservative raw material export oriented model - Decreasing competitiveness of converting industries and increasing dependence on import of goods and technologies - GDP growth rate limited to 4% in Energy and raw material-based - Accelerated development and modernization of energy and raw material production and transport sectors - Partial modernization of hi-tech sectors with limited export of products with high added value - GDP growth rate 5-6% in Innovative - Creation of effective national innovative system and implementation of hi-tech projects - Competitive human capital and knowledge-based economy - Creation of new regional development centers - Dynamic economic growth 6,5% per year 9

10 RUSSIA (EMEP) 10

11 RUSSIA (EMEP) 11

12 RUSSIA (EMEP) 12

13 RUSSIA (EMEP)

14 RUSSIA (EMEP) 14

15 Estimates of emissions for 2020, kt RUSSIA (EMEP) 15

16 Estimates of emissions for 2020, kt RUSSIA (EMEP) 16

17 Estimates of emissions for 2020, kt RUSSIA (EMEP) 17

18 RUSSIA (EMEP) 18

19 Change in emission levels compared to the year 2000 Estimates of CIAM Estimates of SRI Atmosphere Non_EU countries Baseline Low Low* Medium High* High MTFR Russia (EMEP) Business as usual Innovative SO 2-27% -34% -34% -51% -75% -73% -84% SO 2-15% -28% NOx -29% -34% -35% -39% -44% -52% -56% NOx -4% -28% PM2.5 0% -30% -22% -53% -66% -64% -75% PM2.5-3% -16% NH3 4% -5% -19% -18% -29% -24% -38% NH3-7% -9% VOC -29% -38% -37% -40% -40% -45% -54% VOC 3% 23%

20 Priorities in budget spendings КДР Budget spendings, GDP% Расходы бюджетной системы, % ВВП Social Социальная политика Public health and sports Здравоохранение и спорт Культура, кинематография и средства Culture and media массовой информации Образование Education Environmental protection Охрана окружающей среды Residential and municipal infrastructure Жилищно-коммунальное хозяйство Национальная экономика National economics год 2015 год 2020 год 2023 год Национальная оборона, национальная безопасность National и правоохранительная security деятельность Общегосударственные вопросы State concerns 20

21 Current environment protection oriented spendings, Thousand of Roubles per year, RUSSIAN FEDERATION TOTAL On water resources protection On air protection On land protection On land recultivation 21

22 BL RUSSIA (EMEP) 22

23 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 23