politics & global warming December 2018

Transcription

1 politics & global warming December 2018

2 Politics & Global Warming, December Table of tents Introduction...2 Reading Notes...3 Executive Summary The Politics of Global Warming Beliefs Should the United States Act on Global Warming? Who is Responsible for Action on Global Warming? Support for Policies to Address the Pollution that Causes Global Warming Individual and Collective Action to Reduce Global Warming Appendix I: Data Tables Appendix II: Survey Method Appendix III: Sample Demographics... 45

3 Politics & Global Warming, December Introduction This report is based on findings from a nationally representative survey Climate Change in the American Mind conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (climatecommunication.yale.edu) and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication (climatechangecommunication.org). Interview dates: ember 28 December 11, Interviews: 1,114 adults (18+), 966 of whom are registered to vote. Average margin of error for both the full sample and registered voter subset: +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The research was funded by the 11th Hour Project, the Endeavor Foundation, the Energy Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, and the MacArthur Foundation. Principal Investigators: Anthony Leiserowitz, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication anthony.leiserowitz@yale.edu Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication emaibach@gmu.edu Seth Rosenthal, PhD Yale Program on Climate Change Communication seth.rosenthal@yale.edu Cite as: Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Goldberg, M., Ballew, M., Gustafson, A., & Bergquist, P. (2019). Politics & Global Warming, December Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

4 Politics & Global Warming, December Reading notes This report includes only registered voters. References to and throughout include respondents who initially identify as either a Republican or Democrat, as well as those who do not initially identify as or but who say they "are closer to" one party or the other (i.e., "leaners") in a follow-up question. The category "Independents" does not include any of these "leaners." In all tables and charts, bases specified are unweighted, but percentages are weighted. Weighted percentages among registered voters of each of the groups discussed in this report: Ø (total) including leaners: 48% o Liberal : 29% o Moderate/servative : 19% (Moderate : 18%; servative : 1%) Ø Independents excluding leaners: 10% Ø (total) including leaners: 36% o Moderate : 12% (Liberal : 1%; Moderate : 11%) o servative : 23% Ø No party/not interested in politics/refused: 6% (included in results reported for "All Voters" only) For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. Summed response categories (e.g., "strongly support" + "somewhat support") are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 1.3% + 1.3% = 2.6%, which, after rounding, would be reported as 1% + 1% = 3%). In the appendix data tables, note that: -- denotes that there were no responses in that cell, whereas * denotes that the value is > 0 but < 0.5.

5 Politics & Global Warming, December Executive Summary Drawing on a nationally representative survey (N = 1,114; including 966 registered voters), this report describes how Democratic, Independent, and Republican registered voters view global warming, climate and energy policies, and personal and collective action. Among other important findings, this survey documents an increase in Republican understanding of the reality of humancaused global warming, worry about the threat, and support for several climate policies over the past 14 months. Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes Most registered voters (74%) think global warming is happening, including 98% of liberal, 85% of moderate/conservative and 70% of liberal/moderate. Only 42% of conservative think global warming is happening, but that reflects an increase of five percentage points since October A majority of registered voters (62%) think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008 and eight percentage points higher than in October This includes 90% of liberal, 66% of moderate/conservative, and 53% of liberal/moderate, but only 28% of conservative. Two in three registered voters (67%) are worried about global warming, including 85% of liberal, 80% of moderate/conservative, and 54% of liberal/moderate. Only one in three conservative (32%) are worried, although that is a nine-point increase since October 2017 and the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008 Global Warming and Energy Policies Large majorities of registered voters across the political spectrum support policies that reduce carbon pollution and dependence on fossil fuels and promote clean energy. These include: The Green New Deal. Described as: Producing jobs and strengthening America s economy by accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy generating 100% of the nation s electricity from clean, renewable sources within the next 10 years; upgrading the nation s energy grid, buildings, and transportation infrastructure; increasing energy efficiency; investing in green technology research and development; and providing training for jobs in the new green economy (81% of registered voters, 92% of, 88% of Independents, and 64% of ). The Clean Power Plan. Described as: Setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants to reduce global warming and improve public health, even if the cost of electricity to consumers and companies would likely increase (71% of registered voters, 86% of, 77% of Independents, and 48% of ). A Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax. Described as: Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax and using the money to reduce other taxes (such as income tax) by an equal amount (71% of registered voters, 85% of, 71% of Independents, and 49% of ).

6 Politics & Global Warming, December Fee and Dividend. Described as: Requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a fee on carbon pollution, and distributing the money collected to all U.S. citizens, in equal amounts, through monthly dividend checks (63% of registered voters, 78% of, 66% of Independents, and 39% of ). Large majorities of registered voters also support: Funding more research into renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power (88% of registered voters, 95% of, 84% of Independents, and 81% of ). Providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels (85% of registered voters, 95% of, 85% of Independents, and 71% of ). Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant (79% of registered voters, 93% of, 81% of Independents, and 60% of ). Fewer registered voters support policies to increase fossil-fuel production: About half of registered voters support expanding drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast (48% of registered voters, 30% of, 49% of Independents, and 72% of ). Only about one in three registered voters support drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (32% of registered voters, 18% of, 33% of Independents, and 53% of ). Acting on Global Warming Across party lines, a majority of registered voters say corporations and industry should do more to address global warming (75% of registered voters; 91% of, 72% of Independents, and 53% of ). At least half of registered voters including, Independents, and liberal/moderate, but not conservative think citizens, the U.S. gress, their own member of gress, their local government officials, and/or their governor should do more to address global warming. Majorities of and Independents think President Trump should do more. A majority of registered voters (57%) think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and gress, including a majority of (84%), but fewer Independents (41%) and (24%). A strong majority of registered voters (69%) think the United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, regardless of what other countries do. Majorities of liberal (92%), moderate/conservative (76%), and liberal/moderate (55%) take this position, as well as 45% of conservative.

7 Politics & Global Warming, December Individual and Collective Action About half of registered voters are confident that people working together can influence what local decision-makers do about global warming (local businesses, 51%; local government, 50%). Fewer think that people can influence what state government (46%) or national decision-makers (corporations, 39%; federal government, 38%) do about global warming. At least one in three registered voters say that they would participate in an organized effort to address global warming, including: donating money to an organization working on global warming (39%), contacting a government official about global warming (38%), volunteering for an organization working on global warming (35%), and/or meeting with an elected official or their staff about global warming (32%). About one in three registered voters (36%) are currently participating (2%), definitely would participate (11%), or probably would participate (24%) in a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming (totals of 57% of but only 25% of Independents and 13% of ). However, relatively few registered voters (13%) say they have actually contacted an elected official during the past 12 months to urge them to take action to reduce global warming, including one in four liberal (26%).

8 Politics & Global Warming, December The Politics of Global Warming Beliefs 1.1. Most registered voters think global warming is happening. Nearly three in four registered voters (74%) think global warming is happening. This includes nearly all liberal (98%), a large majority of moderate/conservative (85%), and most liberal/moderate (70%, an increase of 7 percentage points since October 2017; see Table, pp ). In contrast, fewer than half of conservative (42%, +5 percentage points since October 2017) think global warming is happening. Much of the recent upward trend in Americans' belief that global warming is happening is due to an upward shift among. Most Voters Think Global Warming Is Happening All Reg Voters Lib Ds Ds Lib/Mod Rs Rs 100% 75% 50% 25% 91% 81% 71% 62% 50% 98% 85% 74% 70% 42% 0% 11/08 1/10 6/10 5/11 11/11 3/12 9/12 4/13 11/13 4/14 10/14 3/15 10/15 3/16 11/16 5/17 10/17 3/18 12/18 Do you think global warming is happening? [% responding yes ] December Base: American Voters.

9 Politics & Global Warming, December A majority of registered voters think global warming is caused by human activities. About six in ten registered voters (62%) think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008 and eight percentage points higher than in October 2017 (see Table, pp ). This includes nine in ten liberal (90%; +7 percentage points since October 2017), and two in three moderate/conservative (66%). About half of liberal/moderate (53%) think global warming is caused mostly by human activities, an increase of 12 percentage points since October Only about one in four conservative (28%) think global warming is mostly human-caused, but that is a seven-point increase since October A Majority of Voters Think Global Warming Is Caused Mostly By Human Activities All Reg Voters Lib Ds Ds Lib/Mod Rs Rs 100% 75% 78% 64% 90% 66% 50% 55% 62% 52% 53% 25% 28% 28% 0% 11/08 1/10 6/10 5/11 11/11 3/12 9/12 4/13 11/13 4/14 10/14 3/15 10/15 3/16 11/16 5/17 10/17 3/18 12/18 Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is? (a) caused mostly by human activities; (b) caused mostly by natural changes in the environment; (c) Other (please specify); (d) None of the above because global warming isn t happening. [% responding caused mostly by human activities ] December Base: American Voters.

10 Politics & Global Warming, December A majority of registered voters are worried about global warming. Two in three registered voters (67%) are "very" or "somewhat" worried about global warming, the highest percentage since our surveys began in This includes large majorities of liberal (95%) and moderate/conservative (80%). About half of liberal/moderate (54%) are worried about global warming. Only one in three conservative (32%) are worried, although that is a nine-point increase since October 2017 and the highest percentage since our surveys began in 2008 (see Table, pp ). A Majority of Voters Are Worried About Global Warming - % who say very or somewhat worried - All Reg Voters Lib Ds Ds Lib/Mod Rs Rs 100% 75% 82% 62% 74% 95% 80% 67% 50% 61% 31% 32% 54% 25% 0% 11/08 1/10 6/10 5/11 11/11 3/12 9/12 4/13 11/13 4/14 10/14 3/15 10/15 3/16 11/16 5/17 10/17 3/18 12/18 How worried are you about global warming? December Base: American Voters.

11 Politics & Global Warming, December Should the United States Act on Global Warming? 2.1. Most registered voters say the United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions, regardless of what other countries do. Most registered voters think the United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, regardless of what other countries do (69%). Majorities of liberal (92%), moderate/conservative (76%), and liberal/moderate (55%) take this position, as do 45% of conservative. Only 5% of registered voters (including 2% of and 3% of Independents, but 11% of ) say the United States should not reduce its emissions (see Table, p. 31). Most Voters Say the U.S. Should Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Regardless of What Other Countries Do The U.S. should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions regardless of what other countries do 100% 85% 92% 75% 69% 68% 76% 50% 48% 55% 45% 25% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (a) regardless of what other counties do; (b) only if other industrialized countries reduce their emissions; (c) only if other industrialized and developing countries reduce their emissions; (d) The U.S. should not reduce its emissions; (e) don t know. December Base: American Voters.

12 Politics & Global Warming, December Who is Responsible for Action on Global Warming? 3.1. Three in four registered voters want corporations and industry to do more to address global warming. Voters also want more action from citizens and government. Across party lines, a majority of registered voters say corporations and industry should do more to address global warming (75% of all registered voters; 91% of, 72% of Independents, and 53% of ). Half or more of registered voters, including, Independents, and liberal/moderate, but not conservative, think citizens, the U.S. gress, their own member of gress, their local government officials and/or their governor should do more to address global warming. Half or more and Independents think President Trump and/or the media should do more. Three in Four Voters Want Corporations and Industry To Do More to Address Global Warming - % who say should be doing much more or more - Dem IND REP Lib/ Mod Rep DEM Lib Dem Rep (466) (295) (168) (95) (356) (116) (238) % % % % % % % Corporations and industry 75% Citizens themselves U.S. gress President Trump Your member of gress Your local government officials Your governor 68% 67% 67% 64% 62% 60% The media 53% Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? December Base: American Voters (n=996).

13 Politics & Global Warming, December A majority of registered voters think global warming should be a "high" or "very high" priority for the president and gress. A majority of registered voters (57%) think global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and gress, including more than eight in ten (84%), but only four in ten Independents (41%) and one in four (24%). Liberal are more than five times as likely as conservative to think global warming should be a priority (92% versus 17%, respectively). A Majority of Voters Think Global Warming Should Be a High or Very High Priority For the President and gress - % who say high or very high priority - 100% 84% 92% 75% 72% 57% 50% 41% 36% 25% 24% 17% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) Do you think global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and gress? December Base: American Voters.

14 Politics & Global Warming, December Support for Policies to Address the Pollution that Causes Global Warming 4.1. A large majority of registered voters support a "Green New Deal." As we reported in December, a large majority of registered voters support the policy priorities included in a proposal called the Green New Deal. The description of the policy was summarized based a 2018 policy report: 1 "the Green New Deal will produce jobs and strengthen America s economy by accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy. The Deal would generate 100% of the nation s electricity from clean, renewable sources within the next 10 years; upgrade the nation s energy grid, buildings, and transportation infrastructure; increase energy efficiency; invest in green technology research and development; and provide training for jobs in the new green economy." Eight in ten (81%) registered voters support the Green New Deal as described above, including large majorities of (92%) and Independents (88%). A majority of (64%), including three in four liberal/moderate (75%) and more than half of conservative (57%) also support the Green New Deal. A Large Majority of Voters Support A Green New Deal - % who strongly or somewhat support - 100% 75% 81% 92% 88% 64% 93% 90% 75% 57% 50% 25% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Some members of gress are proposing a "Green New Deal" for the U.S. They say that a Green New Deal will produce jobs and strengthen America s economy by accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy. The Deal would generate 100% of the nation's electricity from clean, renewable sources within the next 10 years, upgrade the nation s energy grid, buildings and transportation infrastructure, increase energy efficiency, invest in "green" technology research and development, and provide training for jobs in the new "green" economy. How much do you support or oppose this idea? December Base: American Voters. Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) 1

15 Politics & Global Warming, December A majority of registered voters support a "Fee and Dividend" policy for carbon pollution. Another policy for mitigating global warming that is currently under consideration is a "Fee and Dividend" policy 2 in which fossil fuel companies would pay a fee on the carbon pollution they produce, and all the money collected would be distributed to all U.S. citizens, in equal amounts, through monthly dividend checks. Six in ten (63%) registered voters support a Fee and Dividend plan, including majorities of (78%) and Independents (66%). About four in ten (39%) support the plan, including half of liberal/moderate (53%) but only three in ten conservative (30%). 100% A Majority of Voters Support A Fee and Dividend Policy For Carbon Pollution - % who strongly or somewhat support - 75% 63% 78% 66% 81% 73% 50% 25% 39% 53% 30% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) How much do you support or oppose the following policy? Require fossil fuel companies to pay a fee on carbon pollution, and distribute the money collected to all U.S. citizens, in equal amounts, through monthly dividend checks. December Base: American Voters. 2

16 Politics & Global Warming, December A large majority of registered voters support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax. A similar proposal would require fossil fuel companies to pay a "carbon tax," and would use the money to reduce other taxes by an equal amount. About seven in ten registered voters (71%) support this plan often referred to as a "revenue neutral carbon tax." Large majorities of (85%) and Independents (71%) support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax. About half of (49%), including a majority of liberal/moderate (64%), but only four in ten conservative (41%), also support such a tax. A Large Majority of Voters Support Requiring Fossil Fuel Companies to Pay a Carbon Tax - % who strongly or somewhat support - 100% 75% 71% 85% 71% 88% 79% 64% 50% 49% 41% 25% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) How much do you support or oppose the following policy? Require fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax and use the money to reduce other taxes (such as income tax) by an equal amount. December Base: American Voters.

17 Politics & Global Warming, December A large majority of registered voters support setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on coal-fired power plants. About seven in ten registered voters (71%) support setting strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants (a major component of the Environmental Protection Agency's "Clean Power Plan") to reduce global warming and improve public health, even if the cost of electricity to consumers and companies would likely increase. Large majorities of (86%) and Independents (77%) support setting strict limits on coal-fired power plants. About half of (48%), including a majority of liberal/moderate (61%), but only four in ten conservative (40%), also support such limits. A Large Majority of Voters Support Setting Strict CO 2 Emission Limits on Existing Coal-Fired Power Plants - % who strongly or somewhat support - 100% 75% 71% 86% 77% 92% 77% 61% 50% 48% 40% 25% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) How much do you support or oppose the following policy? Set strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants to reduce global warming and improve public health. Power plants would have to reduce their emissions and/or invest in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The cost of electricity to consumers and companies would likely increase. December Base: American Voters.

18 Politics & Global Warming, December voters support climate-friendly energy polices. voters support several climate-friendly energy policies, including many designed to reduce carbon pollution and dependence on fossil fuels, and to promote clean energy. are the most likely to support such policies, but majorities of Independents and do as well. Majorities across the political spectrum support: Funding more research into renewable energy sources: 88% of registered voters, 95% of, 84% of Independents, and 81% of. Providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels: 85% of registered voters, 95% of, 85% of Independents, and 71% of. Regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant: 79% of registered voters, 93% of, 81% of Independents, and 60% of. Requiring electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewable energy sources, even if it costs the average household an extra $100 a year: 70% of registered voters, 87% of, 64% of Independents, but only about half (48%) of. Majorities of conservative support three of these policies: funding more research into renewable energy (80%); providing tax rebates to people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels (67%); and regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant (56%). Voters Support Climate-Friendly Energy Policies - % who say strongly or somewhat support policy - All Reg Voters Lib Ind Lib/ Mod (Unweighted base) (996) (466) (295) (168) (95) (356) (116) (238) Fund more research into renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from renewables, even if it costs the average household an extra $100/year How much do you support or oppose the following policies? December Base: American Voters.

19 Politics & Global Warming, December voters are split on fossil-fuel production policies. About half of registered voters (48%) support expanding offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast, including 72% of, 49% of Independents, and 30% of. By contrast, fewer registered voters (32%) support drilling for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), while a large majority (68%) oppose it (see Table, p. 39). About six in ten conservative (61%) support this policy, but liberal/moderate (36%), Independents (33%), and (18%) are much less likely to support oil drilling in ANWR. Voters Are Split On Fossil-Fuel Production Policies - % who say strongly or somewhat support policy - All Reg Voters Lib Ind (Unweighted base) (996) (466) (295) (168) (95) (356) (116) (238) Lib/ Mod Expand offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast Drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge How much do you support or oppose the following policies? December Base: American Voters.

20 Politics & Global Warming, December Individual and Collective Action to Reduce Global Warming 5.1. More registered voters are confident they can influence local vs. national decisionmakers. Perceptions of collective efficacy regarding global warming the belief that like-minded citizens can work together to influence action on global warming is an important motivator for individuals to take collective action. 3 Half of registered voters are at least "moderately confident" that people like them, working together, can affect what local businesses (51%) and/or their local government (50%) do about global warming. Fewer are confident that people can affect what their state government (46%), corporations (39%), and/or the federal government (38%) do about global warming. are more likely than Independents or to express confidence that people can affect what governments and businesses do about global warming. More Voters Are fident They Can Influence Local vs. National Decision-Makers - % who say a great deal, a lot, or a moderate amount - All Reg Voters Lib Ind (Unweighted base) (996) (466) (295) (168) (95) (356) (116) (238) How confident are you that people like you, working together, can? affect what local businesses in your community do about global warming? Lib/ Mod affect what your local government does about global warming? affect what your state government does about global warming? affect what corporations do about global warming? affect what the federal government does about global warming? How confident are you that people like you, working together, can? December Base: American Voters. 3 Bandura, A. (2000). Exercise of human agency through collective efficacy. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 9, doi: /

21 Politics & Global Warming, December Many say they would engage with organizations and government officials regarding global warming. One in three or more registered voters say they would engage in organized efforts to address global warming, including donating money to an organization working on global warming (39%), writing letters, , phoning government officials about global warming (38%), volunteering their time to an organization working on global warming (35%), or meeting with elected officials or their staff about global warming (32%). are more likely than Independents and to say they would take these actions. Many Would Engage With Organizations or Government Officials Regarding Global Warming - % who say definitely or probably would - All Reg Voters Lib Ind Lib/ Mod (Unweighted base) (996) (466) (295) (168) (95) (356) (116) (238) Donate money to an organization working on global warming Write letters, , or phone government officials about global warming Volunteer your time to an organization working on global warming Meet with an elected official or their staff about global warming How likely would you be to do each of the following things if a person you like and respect asked you to? December Base: American Voters.

22 Politics & Global Warming, December Few registered voters have urged an elected official to take action to reduce global warming during the past 12 months. One in four liberal have done so. Only about one in eight registered voters (13%) say they have contacted an elected official during the past 12 months to urge them to take action to reduce global warming. However, 21% of, including 26% of liberal, and 14% of moderate/conservative say they have done so. Only 7% of Independents and 3% of say they have done so. Few Voters Have Urged An Elected Official To Take Action To Reduce Global Warming During the Past 12 Months - One in four liberal have done so - 50% 25% 21% 26% 13% 14% 0% All Reg Voters (n=966) Dem (n=466) 7% Ind (n=95) 3% Rep (n=356) Lib D (n=295) D (n=168) 2% 3% Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) (a) Over the past 12 months, how many times have you written letters, ed, or phones government officials about global warming? (b) [If one or more times] When you contacted a government official, did you [urge them to take action to reduce global warming]? December Base: American Voters.

23 Politics & Global Warming, December About one in three voters would join, or are already participating in, a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming. About one in three registered voters (36%) are participating (2%), definitely would participate (11%), or probably would participate (24%) in a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming. This includes more than half (57%) of (64% of liberal and 45% of moderate/conservative ), one in four Independents (25%), and 13% of (16% of liberal/moderate and 10% of conservative ). About One in Three Voters Would Join, or Are Already Participating In, a Campaign to vince Elected Officials to Take Action to Reduce Global Warming 100% Participating now Definitely would Probably would 75% 50% 25% 0% 36% 36% 25% 30% 24% 17% 13% 18% 22% 11% 11% 12% 2% 3% 7% 1% 2% 1% 3% 3% All Reg Voters (n=966) 57% Dem (n=466) Ind (n=95) Rep (n=356) 64% 40% Lib D (n=295) 45% D (n=168) 16% 10% 14% 8% 2% 2% Lib/Mod R (n=116) R (n=238) How willing or unwilling would you be to join a campaign to convince elected officials to take action to reduce global warming? December Base: American Voters.

24 Politics & Global Warming, December Appendix I: Data Tables (Base: American Voters 18+) Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the world s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world s climate may change as a result. What do you think: Do you think that global warming is happening? Unweighted bases All Voters Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April ,067 1,109 1,070 1,061 1,004 1,070 1,025 1, , April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan % % % Yes No Don t know % % % Yes No Don t know Liberal % % % Yes No Don t know Moderate/ servative % % % Yes No Don t know

25 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) Recently, you may have noticed that global warming has been getting some attention in the news. Global warming refers to the idea that the world s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world s climate may change as a result. What do you think: Do you think that global warming is happening? (t d.) Unweighted bases Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan Independents % % % Yes No Don t know % % % Yes No Don t know Moderate/ Liberal % % % Yes No Don t know servative % % % Yes No Don t know

26 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is Unweighted bases All Voters Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April ,067 1,109 1,070 1,061 1,004 1,070 1,025 1, , April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified * * * 1 * 1 * * 2 * * * * 1

27 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is (t d.) Unweighted bases Liberal Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified Moderate/ servative * * 4 * * * * 1 * * -- 2 * * % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified * * * 2 * * * 1 1

28 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is (t d.) Unweighted bases Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan Independents % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified * % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified *

29 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is (t d.) Unweighted bases Moderate/ Liberal Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified servative * % % % Caused mostly by human activities Caused mostly by natural changes in the environment Neither because global warming isn t happening Other please specify, caused by human activities and natural changes Other please specify, unclassified * 1 1 * 1 1 *

30 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) How worried are you about global warming? Unweighted bases All Voters Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April ,067 1,109 1,070 1,061 1,004 1,070 1,025 1, , April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried Liberal % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried Moderate/ servative % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried

31 Politics & Global Warming, December (Base: American Voters 18+) How worried are you about global warming? (t d.) Unweighted bases Dec Oct 2017 May Oct Oct 2014 April April 2013 Sept May 2011 June 2010 Jan Independents % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried Moderate/ Liberal % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried servative % % % Very worried Somewhat worried Not very worried Not at all worried

32 Politics & Global Warming, December The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions... Voters Liberal Other Mod Regardless of what other countries do Only if other industrialized countries (such as England, Germany, and Japan) reduce their emissions Only if other industrialized countries and developing countries (such as China, India, and Brazil) reduce their emissions The U.S. should not reduce its emissions Don't know Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? Corporations and industry Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less Citizens themselves Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less

33 Politics & Global Warming, December Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? (t d.) The U.S. gress Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less President Trump Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount 22 4 * Less Much Less Your member of gress Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less

34 Politics & Global Warming, December Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming? (t d.) Your local government officials Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less Your governor Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less The media Voters Liberal Other Mod Much more More Currently doing the right amount Less Much Less

35 Politics & Global Warming, December Do you think global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and gress? Voters Liberal Other Mod Low Medium High Very High Some members of gress are proposing a "Green New Deal" for the U.S. They say that a Green New Deal will produce jobs and strengthen America s economy by accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy. The Deal would generate 100% of the nation's electricity from clean, renewable sources within the next 10 years, upgrade the nation s energy grid, buildings and transportation infrastructure, increase energy efficiency, invest in "green" technology research and development, and provide training for jobs in the new "green" economy. How much do you support or oppose this idea? Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

36 Politics & Global Warming, December How much do you support or oppose the following policies? Require fossil fuel companies to pay a fee on carbon pollution, and distribute the money collected to all U.S. citizens, in equal amounts, through monthly dividend checks. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Require fossil fuel companies to pay a carbon tax and use the money to reduce other taxes (such as income tax) by an equal amount. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

37 Politics & Global Warming, December How much do you support or oppose the following policies? (t d.) Set strict carbon dioxide emission limits on existing coal-fired power plants to reduce global warming and improve public health. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Fund more research into renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

38 Politics & Global Warming, December How much do you support or oppose the following policies? (t d.) Provide tax rebates for people who purchase energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse gas) as a pollutant. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

39 Politics & Global Warming, December How much do you support or oppose the following policies? (t d.) Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources, even if it costs the average household an extra $100 a year. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Expand offshore drilling for oil and natural gas off the U.S. coast. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose

40 Politics & Global Warming, December How much do you support or oppose the following policies? (t d.) Drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Voters Liberal Other Mod Strongly/Somewhat support Strongly support Somewhat support Strongly/Somewhat oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose How confident are you that people like you, working together can? affect what local businesses in your community do about global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod Extremely confident Very confident Moderately confident Only a little confident Not at all confident

41 Politics & Global Warming, December How confident are you that people like you, working together can? (t d.) affect what your local government does about global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod Extremely confident Very confident Moderately confident Only a little confident Not at all confident affect what your state government does about global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod Extremely confident Very confident Moderately confident Only a little confident Not at all confident affect what corporations do about global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod Extremely confident Very confident Moderately confident Only a little confident Not at all confident

42 Politics & Global Warming, December How confident are you that people like you, working together can? (t d.) affect what the federal government does about global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod Extremely confident Very confident Moderately confident Only a little confident Not at all confident How likely would you be to do each of the following things if a person you like and respect asked you to? Donate money to an organization working on global warming Voters Liberal Other Mod Definitely would Probably would Probably would not Definitely would not Don t know Prefer not to answer/refused

43 Politics & Global Warming, December How likely would you be to do each of the following things if a person you like and respect asked you to? (t d.) Write letters, s, or phone government officials about global warming Voters Liberal Other Mod Definitely would Probably would Probably would not Definitely would not Don t know Prefer not to answer/refused Volunteer your time to an organization working on global warming Voters Liberal Other Mod Definitely would Probably would Probably would not Definitely would not Don t know Prefer not to answer/refused Meet with an elected official or their staff about global warming Voters Liberal Other Mod Definitely would Probably would Probably would not Definitely would not Don t know Prefer not to answer/refused

44 Politics & Global Warming, December Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done the following? Written letters, ed, or phoned government officials about global warming Voters Liberal Other Mod Many times (6+) * 2 1 * -- Several times (4-5) * -- 1 A few times (2-3) Once * 2 Never Don t know [If one or more times] When you contacted a government official did you Voters Liberal Other Mod Urge them to take action to reduce global warming Urge them not to take action to reduce global warming Other (please specify) * Never/Don't know/refused previous question How willing or unwilling would you be to join a campaign to convince elected officials to reduce global warming? Voters Liberal Other Mod I am participating in a campaign like this now I definitely would do it I probably would do it I probably would not do it I definitely would not do it Not sure Prefer not to answer/refused

45 Politics & Global Warming, December Appendix II: Survey Method The data in this report are based on a nationally representative survey of 1,114 American adults, aged 18 and older, 966 of whom are registered to vote. The survey was conducted ember 28 December 11, All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based environment. The survey took, on average, about 27 minutes to complete. The sample was drawn from GfK s KnowledgePanel, an online panel of members drawn using probability sampling methods. Prospective members are recruited using a combination of random digit dial and address-based sampling techniques that cover virtually all (non-institutional) resident phone numbers and addresses in the United States. Those contacted who would choose to join the panel but do not have access to the Internet are loaned computers and given Internet access so they may participate. The sample therefore includes a representative cross-section of American adults irrespective of whether they have Internet access, use only a cell phone, etc. Key demographic variables were weighted, post survey, to match US Census Bureau norms. The survey instrument was designed by Anthony Leiserowitz, Seth Rosenthal, Matthew Ballew, Matthew Goldberg, and Abel Gustafson of Yale University, and Edward Maibach and John Kotcher of George Mason University. Margins of error All samples are subject to some degree of sampling error that is, statistical results obtained from a sample can be expected to differ somewhat from results that would be obtained if every member of the target population was interviewed. Average margins of error, at the 95% confidence level, are as follows: registered voters: Plus or minus 3 percentage points. (total): Plus or minus 5 points. Liberal : Plus or minus 6 points. Moderate/conservative : Plus or minus 8 points. Independents: Plus or minus 10 points. (total): Plus or minus 5 points. moderate : Plus or minus 9 points. servative : Plus or minus 6 points.

46 Politics & Global Warming, December Appendix III: Demographics Voters N % (unweighted) (weighted) Men Women igen (18-21) 13 4 Millennial (22-37) Generation X (38-53) Baby Boomer (54-72) Silent Generation (73+) Less than high school 22 6 High school graduate Some college/associate degree/technical degree College graduate Post graduate <$25K $25K - <$50K $50K - <$75K $75K - <$100K $100K - <$125K $125K White, non-hispanic Black, African-American non-hispanic Hispanic Other non-hispanic 60 7 Northeast Midwest South West

47 Politics & Global Warming, December Full Sample N % (unweighted) (weighted) 1, Men Women igen (18-21) 24 6 Millennial (22-37) Generation X (38-53) Baby Boomer (54-72) Silent Generation (73+) Less than high school High school graduate Some college/associate degree/technical degree College graduate Post graduate <$25K $25K - <$50K $50K - <$75K $75K - <$100K $100K - <$125K $125K White, non-hispanic Black, African-American non-hispanic Hispanic Other non-hispanic 79 8 Northeast Midwest South West

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