Evolution of our Energy System

Transcription

1 Evolution of our Energy System Alex Buckman Energy Technologies Institute 2017 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This 2017 information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 What is the ETI? ETI members The ETI is a public-private partnership between global energy and engineering companies and the UK Government. Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy ETI programme associate

3 What is the ETI? System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation

4 9 441 tonnes

5 Our energy system evolves around our choices

6 Washington Post, 2014

7 45000 Daily UK Demand Total metered demand /3/ /3/ /3/ /3/2017

8 Change happens fast

9 Change happens fast Wannis Kabbaj: Director of global strategy for healthcare logistics at UPS Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood Ted Talk: What a driverless world could look like Image courtesy of GoToVan - Flickr Creative Commons licence

10 Change happens fast Journey arrival times ( ) and Electricity demand profile (7th December 2010) Proportion of all journeys ( ) Return Home Shopping (Food and Other) Visiting Friends / Socialising / Enterainment / Sports In course of work Education (But Excl. Escorting Others) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Travel to Work Escorting Others Personal Business (Medical, Eat/drink, Other) Holiday Base / Day trip Electricity demand Electricity demand (GW) Time of day

11 Change happens fast

12 Why do we need to balance? Low grade heat demand (GW) Average Daily Power (GW) Power (GW) : GW heat demand pick-up in 1 hr ( ) 16.1GW 0400 Jan 02:00 Feb 04:00 Mar 06:00 Apr 291.5GW 0730 May 08:00 Jun From National Grid gas transmission operational data (2016) Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun 10:00 Jul Aug Data from Gridwatch (2016) GW heat demand reduction in 1 hr ( ) 66.8GW :00 Time Sep 14:00 Oct 16:00 Nov 304.3GW Hydro 1730 Storage Oil Dec Pumped Hydro OCGT Coal CCGT Wind Nuclear Other Power stations LDZ Interconnectors French Interconnector Dutch Interconnector Industry 18:00 East-West Interconnector Based on data from Robert Sansom (2011) 20:00 Irish Interconnector 22:00 00:00

13 The tools at our disposal STORAGE Supply Demand Between 2011 and GW of intermittent generation was connected to the grid Roughly 2GW of this is under 20MW

14 How much storage is needed? Grid-connected electricity storage Hydrogen storage Meeting 2050 carbon targets without CCS Storage capacity (GWh) In-building heat storage District heat storage Meeting 2050 carbon targets with CCS (Historic) (Historic)

15 Vector Flexibility GW :00 00:30 01:00 01:30 02:00 02:30 03:00 03:30 04:00 04:30 05:00 05:30 06:00 06:30 07:00 07:30 08:00 08:30 09:00 09:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 22:30 23:00 23:30 Time of day Vector 1 Contribution Vector 1 Constraint Vector 2 Contribution Energy Service Demand

16 Demand Flexibility Cumulative network reinforcement cost ( bn) Cumulative network reinforcement costs to support plug-in vehicles High Uptake of Plug-in Vehicles Medium Uptake of Plug-in Vehicles Year Worst Case Recharging Patterns Low Uptake of Plug-in Vehicles Recharging Always Overnight

17 Concluding Statements Create new energy systems, adapt existing ones and integrate them together Users define the energy system s evolution, not the other way around We need to understand the implications of different scenarios so that we are prepared to evolve

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