Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): An Overview

Transcription

1 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): An Overview Rupa Kumar Kolli Filipe Lucio 1

2 Global Framework for Climate Services Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. 2

3 Why a Framework for Climate Services? It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources ) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors. A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings. Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide highquality climate services. Climate services have not been able to reach the last mile to those who need them the most. 3

4 What are Climate Services? WMO Provide a source of accumulated knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system; The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems Historical climate data sets Climate monitoring Climate watches Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions Climate change projections The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results.

5 Components of GFCS Users Government, private sector, research agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc., User Interface User Interface Climate Services Information System Observations and Monitoring CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT Research, Modeling and Prediction 5

6 GFCS Sectoral Priorities All climate-sensitive sectors to be tackled but in the first four years it is agreed to give priority to the following sectors for GFCS implementation: Energy 6

7 7 The principles of GFCS

8 GFCS Governance Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services (IBCS) Established by Extraordinary Session of World Meteorological Congress in 2012 IBCS-1: 1-5 July 2013, Geneva Adopted the GFCS Implementation Plan IBCS-2: November 2014, Geneva IBCS Management Committee (Re-established in IBCS-2) Chair: Dr Jens Sunde (Norway) Co-Vice-Chairs: Dr L.S. Rathore (India) and Dr L. Makuleni (South Africa) 28-Member Management Committee Partnership Advisory Committee GFCS Trust Fund GFCS Office (as part of WMO Secretariat)

9 GFCS is a partnership 9

10 Early Implementation of GFCS National Consultations/Pilot Projects on frameworks for climate services at national level Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Belize, Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Bhutan, Kiribati, etc. Regional Consultations LDCs in Asia, Bangkok, October 2012 SIDS Caribbean, Port of Spain, May 2013 SIDS Pacific, Cook Islands, 31 March-4 April 2014 Latin America, 28 July 1 August 2014 Southeastern Europe, November 2014 Third Pole, March 2016 Establishment of joint project offices WHO/WMO Climate and Health GWP/WMO IDMP TSU WFP/WMO Interagency Coordination Group with UN partners FAO, WFP, UNESCO, UNDP, UNISDR, WB, WHO and WMO 10

11 Lessons learned from regional and national consultations Regional Importance of research and science Role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums Maximization of limited resources through regional approach Exploring gaps, capacity development, and strategies for engaging stakeholders National Systematic dialogue with users Understanding in-country capabilities Identification of data and observation requirements Identification of priority research questions Building sector-specific capacities Leveraging enabling factors 11

12 Concern... Energy Water Resource Management Strong Wind Transport Food security Intensity Coastal Marine Hazards Health Industry Tropical Cyclones Urban areas Hazards intensity and frequency are increasing Heavy rainfall / Flood Vulnerability and exposure on the rise! Heatwaves Frequency Need for > coping mechanisms 12

13 Vulnerability to climate hazards varies... Probability P (x) Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with hazards Coping range Climate variability/change as well as societal changes can increase or decrease this coping range. Drought Flooding X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.) Adapted from Wilhite,

14 Seamless hydrometeorological and climate services Climate Change Climate Variability Decades Centuries Forecast uncertainty Years Weather Hours Minutes 1 Week Days Historical Observations Months 2 Weeks Seasons Forecasts Warnings Alerts Outlooks Predictions Scenarios Projections Response/Preparedness Customized Products Risk assessment and mapping Risk Monitoring Early Warnings Public Advisories Research Planning tools 14

15 New demand-driven products in the offing: onset prediction and monitoring Early onset predicted most likely Probability of early onset Probability of late onset Prediction is based on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average Early onset occurred CSRP monitoring product: Observed time of onset (in days difference from long-term average Greater Horn of Africa, short-rains season month lead time prediction Assessment over retrospective cases indicates forecast can discriminate early/late onset in ~70% of cases (Tanzania/Kenya) Onset forecasts being trialled at regional centres in East, West and southern Africa 15

16 Data or information? 16

17 Decision-making across timescales Begin planning and monitoring of forecasts Update contingency plans Sensitize communities Enable early-warning systems Continue monitoring Adjust plans Warn communities Local preparation activities Activate response Instruction to communities to evacuate, if needed Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get Mark Twain 17

18 Strategic Objectives of the GFCS Operational and Resources Plan 18

19 Supporting Countries to Achieve Coordinated National Frameworks for Climate Services Step 1: Conduct Comprehensive National Baseline Capacity Assessment for Climate Services Step 2: Support NHMS to engage in a national consultations process for the development of a framework for climate services Step 3: Develop National Action Plan to address the capacity gaps identified through the national consultation process Step 4: Organize National Action Plan Validation Step 5: Begin Implementation of National Action Plan Activities, Launch National Framework for Climate Services, Ensure rigorous M&E 19

20 Development of National Action Plans 20

21 Baseline 21

22 Implementation focus (1/2) The Framework is being implemented over 2-, 6-, and 10-year time frames to facilitate review at the World Meteorological Congress sessions. The first two years have been the start-up phase for establishing the Framework s infrastructure and for establishment of coordination mechanisms for implementation of multidisciplinary flagship projects and activities in the four priority areas to develop a Proof of Concept 22

23 Implementation focus (2/2) Pursuing the ambitions of the Implementation Plan: After six years: Implementation the Proof of Concept; flagship projects will be replicated in other parts of the world to ensure worldwide improvements in climate services for the priority areas After ten years: There will be improved climate services throughout the world, across all climate-sensitive sectors and across global, regional and national spatial scales. 23

24 Major needs Capacity development of professionals and communities on production and effective application of climate services Improved, standardized, and quality controlled sector monitoring data that is compatible with environmental and climate information; Monitoring and evaluation of the appropriate, effective, and costeffective use of climate information for sector decisions; Research and prediction of sector impacts associated with climate variability and climate change, in collaboration with the climate research community; Development and deployment of early warning systems appropriate to the sector and user communities; Sustainable financial and technical support; Better collaboration with the climate community for interdisciplinary policy, practice and research. 8 Weather Climate Water

25 Ten Pre-requisites for Effective GFCS Implementation 1. Strong institutional anchorage 2. Tailored climate service provision 3. Capacity of the NMHS and other technical services 4. Improved communication 5. Diverse communication media 6. Modernized and increased the density of observing networks 7. User driven climate research 8. Enhanced capacity of end-users 9. Sustained GFCS implementation at the national level 10. National stakeholder engagement

26 Operational infrastructure required Technical infrastructure Requirements for the different components of the GFCS Interoperability of databases (e.g., WIS compliance) Climate Services Toolkit (including downscaling/tailoring tools) Web platform for dissemination Global-Regional-National interaction Networking capabilities (national access to as well as contribution to global and regional products) Best practices and standardized approaches Quality management, best practices on methods, tools, etc. Standardized approaches for regional/sub-regional synergy Linking operational products with the applications Access to application models and decision support tools User-accessible climate knowledgebase Operational linkages with applications infrastructure 26

27 Programme of Implementing GFCS at Regional and National Scales: Funded by Environment Canada

28 Objectives of this Consultation (1/2) Review current status of climate services in the Southwest Indian Ocean region and assess specific needs in the GFCS priority sectors; Review and characterize the current status of interfacing mechanisms and interactions between climate services providers and users, identify major areas for improvement and recommend effective mechanisms and practices; Articulate the capacity building needs for the region, in terms of mandates, infrastructure and human resources; Discuss and recommend improved arrangements for national and local climate issues including climate change indices and impacts indicators, improved access and use of climate data and predictions, sustained operational mechanisms and infrastructure that improve facilitation of the flow of climate information; 28

29 Objectives of this Consultation (2/2) Identify partnerships among relevant stakeholders in the region and build synergies with initiatives supporting the foundational elements for climate services, such as the Indian Ocean Data Rescue (INDARE) initiative, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional and National Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs/NCOFs) and others; Identify, propose and prioritize, ways to promote community understanding and awareness of climate variability and change, and associated risks and opportunities for improved climate risk management and products and services; Provide participating countries with the key steps to implement GFCS at national level through sharing of experiences from the various national consultations held so far, and through identification of priorities for implementation. 29

30 Thank you for your attention 30