Germanys energy transformation pathway Investment and innovation dynamics implication for jobs and markets Presentation:

Transcription

1 Germanys energy transformation pathway Investment and innovation dynamics implication for jobs and markets Presentation: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick Vice President e October 2016

2 Background and targets October 2016 Seite 2

3 Background German energy and climate policy is embedded in a multi-level policy regime The Multi-Level Approach from framework setting to practical implementation implementation framework setting local and regional level national and state level confederation level (EU) supranational level October 2016 Seite 3

4 COP 21 results significantly determine climate policy discussion in Germany and foster need for energy system transformation in the country Rio 1992 Kyoto 1997 Copenhagen 2009 Paris 2015 For the first time total community of states undersigns treaty that requests GHG mitigation (not binding, voluntary character via INDC: intended national determined contribution helps to include formerly difficult countries (e.g. USA, China)) Clear common target: limitation of temperature increase significantly below (!) 2 C (if even possible below 1,5 C) Emission peak should be reached as soon as possible GHG neutrality should be achieved during the second half of the century If application of CCS/BECCS remains limited, this means de facto an almost thoroughly decarbonisation of the global energy system Fossil fuels dominated era is going to end because of external limitations (e.g. environmental boundaries) not due to limited energy resources October 2016 Seite 4

5 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Don t forget the even broader dimension and associated challenges marked by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Quelle: United Nations 2015 October 2016 Seite 5

6 European policy still highly committed to GHG mitigation efforts even considering different opinions among the member states Mid-term target will most likely be achieved significantly more efforts needed for complying with long-term goals October 2016 Seite 6

7 Discussion about alternative energy pathways in Germany started already in the 1970s long tradition in thinking in alternatives Germany is now entering the second half of transition process accordingly Title of ground breaking study in goes already back to an first mentioning of Energiewende in 1975 First half of transformation process ( ) was dominated by agenda setting, technology development, market introduction etc. second half ( ) might be become more challenging as system structures has to be changed October 2016 Seite 7

8 German Energy Concept Central milestones and underlying sub-targets for Energiewende German energy concept launched in 2010 (adapted in 2011) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Reduction of GHG emissions: 80-95% until 2050 Renewable energy share of gross final energy consumption: 60% until 2050 Share of electricity production from renewables: 80% until 2050 Reduction of energy demand compared to 2008: - Gross final energy consumption 50% until Gross electricity demand 25% until 2050 Nuclear power phase out Shutdown of all nuclear power plants until 2022 October 2016 Seite 8 Emissionen in tausend Tonnen CO 2 eq GHG CO 2 German government 1995 Kohl/Töpfer: -25% bis 2005 IPCC % by 2050 Germany has already achieved significant results but there is still an long long way to go! 0 Current emissions in 2015: UN: Kyoto Mio. t CO 2eq EU: Manchester 1998 (ca. -27 % compared to 1990) D: -21% by 2012 German government 2007/2009 Merkel/Gabriel: -40% to 2020 conditional) Merkel/Röttgen: -40% to 2020 (without conditions) IPCC % by Achieving the goals while guaranteeing competitiveness, taking social concerns and system stability into consideration (sustainability triangle as underlying principle) Quelle: BMWi 2011

9 German Energy Concept - achieving the goals while guaranteeing competitiveness, taking social concerns and system stability into consideration (sustainability triangle as underlying principle) German energy concept launched in 2010 (adapted in 2011) Quelle: BMWi 2014 October 2016 Seite 9

10 Status Quo of German Energiewende: trends and socio-economic impacts October 2016 Seite 10

11 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Dynamic increase of renewable energy based electricity generation Quelle: BMWi 2016 October 2016 Seite 11

12 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of investment in construction of renewable energy plants in Germany PV price decline and significant reduction of annual capacity additon Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 12

13 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of investment in construction of renewable energy plants in Germany Significant reduction of market dynamic Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 13

14 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of investment in construction of renewable energy plants in Germany Renewable energy market dominated by electricity sector in Germany Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 14

15 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of investment in construction of renewable energy plants in Germany Wind energy as dominating single technology in Germany Total investment 10 bn Euro in 2015 Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 15

16 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of economic stimuli from the operation of renewable energy plants in Germany Yearly expenditures for operation of existing plants even more important (higher) as annual investments in new plants (with non-recurring economic impact) Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 16

17 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations Development of economic stimuli from the operation of renewable energy plants in Germany Biomass options dominating technologies with respect to operation costs in Germany Quelle: Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2016 October 2016 Seite 17

18 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations In addition German manufacturer are quite successful in exporting their products Numbers for the year 2014 Quelle: AEE 2015 October 2016 Seite 18

19 Rewewable energy technologies as major driver for employment Robust development in many sectors but significant decline in solar business due to increasing competition from China Source: GWS 2015 October 2016 Seite 19

20 Green technology market and related strategies in Germany Related employment effects not only relevant for new companies, but also new opportunities for traditional companies in new fields Traditional companies participate with specific knowledge in new (renewable energy) markets Gear boxes and grains Transformer Wind energy turbines Mikro anticorrosive coating High sophisticated adhesives and sealants Bearings for tower- und blades Insurance products Screws for tighten tower and rotor connections October 2016 Seite 21

21 Rewewable energy technologies as major driver for innovation October 2016 Seite 22

22 Rewewable energy technologies as major driver for innovation October 2016 Seite 23

23 Expenditures for energy related R&D significantly increased over the last years (particularly for renewable energy and energy efficiency) Source: BMWi 2016 October 2016 Seite 24

24 Expenditures for energy related R&D significantly increased over the last years (particularly for renewable energy and energy efficiency) Source: BMWi 2016 October 2016 Seite 25

25 Status Quo of German Energiewende: future expectations and background for further market incentives October 2016 Seite 27

26 Driving forces for Germanys energy climate policy Excellent market positioning of Germany in climate technology lead markets as major driver for ambitious climate policy Global market share of Germany (status 2011 and ongoing) excellent starting position at global market and forerunner role in terms of implementa-tion of energy transition pathway speaks for promising future export markets Source: BMU /11/16 Seite 28

27 Status Quo of German Energiewende, trends and future expectations In addition German manufacturer are quite successful in exporting their products Numbers for the year 2014 Quelle: AEE 2015 October 2016 Seite 29

28 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Further strong decrease of costs for central technology expected due to technical progress and global market penetration 01/11/16 Seite 30

29 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Further strong decrease of costs for central technology expected due to technical progress and global market penetration Potential cost of PV system between 270 and 600 EUR/kWp very likely 2014 ~1000 /kwp Max 2050 Min BOS -40% -73% Inverter ~600 /kwp ~270 /kwp Module Scenarios for 2050 cumulated produced PV capacity : 5.5 TW 36 TW 01/11/16 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Agora Energiewende, to be published Seite 31

30 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Renewable energy options are becoming more and more competitive (photovoltaic) to other energy sources or are already competitive (wind onshore) Levelized cost of energy, projections for Germany until /11/16 Source: Fraunhofer ISE, Agora Energiewende, to be published Seite 32

31 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Large unused and highly profitable potentials in the area of energy efficiency 01/11/16 Seite 33

32 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Large unused and highly profitable potentials in the area of energy efficiency Quelle: /11/16 Seite 34

33 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Expected substantial positive side effects in various areas 01/11/16 Seite 35

34 Why Focus on Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency Large import dependency of the German energy system increases pressure to reach higher independency from political influences and volatile prices Net import dependency according to energy sources 2013 Quelle: BMWi 2015, AG Energiebilanzen /11/16 Seite 36

35 ...and there is another good reason as energy transformation processes and corresponding innovation dynamics is in no way a pure German undertaking October 2016 Seite 37

36 Indien, China, USA, Chile and co on the way to pass Germany as leading Energiewende country Without further efforts Germany is loosing its first moover advantages Many countries strengthen GHG mitigation activities (particularly energy efficiency and renewable energies) not only as direct reflection with regard to climate change but due to pure economic considerations, geopolitical reasons (reduction of import dependency) and other environmental effects (e.g. improvement of air quality). With the ongoing transformation of the energy systems strong innovation forces are released (e.g. batteries, ict) Energiewende countries might become the new Energiemächte of the future and might replace todays powerful energy countries (e.g. Russia, Saudi Arabia) October 2016 Seite 38

37 Indien, China, USA, Chile and co on the way to pass Germany as leading Energiewende country Annual investments in many countries already higher than in Germany Quelle: Global Status Report 2015 October 2016 Seite 39

38 Indien, China, USA, Chile and co on the way to pass Germany as leading Energiewende country Annual investments in many countries already higher than in Germany Quelle: Global Status Report 2015 October 2016 Seite 40

39 Thank you for your attention!

40 Levelized Cost of Electricity Solar Power will soon be the Cheapest Form of Electricity in Many Regions of the World Dubai 2016: 3ct/kWh!! Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende Seite