The major Shipping Markets

Transcription

1 The major Shipping Markets what will be the main themes impacting global shipping markets this year and beyond - and how will they impact buyersupplier and shipping company operations? 29 March 2017 Niklas Bengtsson Director maritime-insight Lloyd s List Intelligence

2 Disclaimer This presentation and accompanying material is provided by the Lloyd s List Group ( LLG") for the use of the recipient only and is not to be copied or distributed to any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking (express or implied) is given and no responsibility is accepted by LLG or its clients, or by any of their respective partners, officers, employees, advisers or agents for the completeness or accuracy of any information contained in, or of any omissions from, this presentation or any supplementary information and any liability in respect of such information or omissions is hereby expressly disclaimed. Informa UK Limited (2016). All rights reserved.

3 what will be the main themes impacting global shipping markets this year and beyond - and how will they impact buyersupplier and shipping company operations? The cool answer Internet of things Donald Trump Brexit Production relocation 3D printing Solar, wind power

4 what will be the main themes impacting global shipping markets this year and beyond - and how will they impact buyersupplier and shipping company operations? The correct answer Global GDP & trade Energy consumption Tanker Dry bulk Container Summary & Conclusions

5 GDP, Trillion Real US Dollars Global GDP growth targets 3.7% (3.1% this year) +$12Tn in the past 5 years, +$14Tn in the next : China +$3.9Bn, US +$1.8Bn, EU +$1.5Bn, RoW +$5.4Bn Avg, 6.1%; Avg, 1.9%; Avg, 1.6%; India 7.7% Source: IMF WEO October 2016 RoW ME+N Africa L America+Caribbeans Em Europe China US EU Japan 5

6 Trade growth outpaced GDP growth up to 2008 How and Why? 6

7 The reason spells China Since China joined the WTO, trade has grown by 2.8Bn tonnes. Not to be repeated. 7

8 Forecast: China s trade growth rate is cut in half. BUT Other Asia picks up total growth GDP growth going forward 8

9 Total seaborne trade growth is still on track. LOTS of bulk, but faster growth of container cargo. 9

10 Energy

11 A familiar slide but very important for shipping. In 2030 there will be energy from twice as much renewables or more, BUT fossil fuels still >80%. Share 2015 % CAGR Share % 7.0% 5.5% 6.8% 1.8% 7.2% 4.5% 2.2% 5.2% Coal 29% 0.6% 28% Gas Oil 24% 1.7% 26% 33% 0.9% 29% 11

12 Shale gas Tight oil The drastic oil price drop and the decoupling of Henry Hub gas from other energy prices (except coal) have influenced the global development? 12

13 Tanker markets Crude Products

14 Total seaborne liquid bulk trade will grow by 3.6% in yearly average. Gas will have an even higher percentage 14

15 Crude oil trade were at a downward slope until the oil price came down then growth has picked-up and it will continue at 2.2% yearly 15

16 Crude tanker dwt-miles have increased since 2H- 2014, first due to more activity (cargo), then in line with fleet growth and thus the market got worse 16

17 The crude oil carrier fleet will grow by 3.8% in average but even more early in the period due to the existing large orderbook bad for rates. 17

18 Seaborne trade of refined oil are destined to increase in the years ahead ton miles growth will most likely be even higher than the 3.3% growth in trade 18

19 The owners have hold on slightly to their money and thus the order book are reasonable large, fleet to grow by 3.2% yearly, more in 2017 and

20 Dry bulk

21 The seaborne dry bulk trade growth is forecast to be lower than in the previous five years, but still 3.4% yearly 21

22 The destination for much of the cargo is China. Coal is the Joker for the future 22

23 The dry bulk market is slow, but still the amount of idle ships is low and even falling 23

24 After the doubling of the fleet in the recent ten years it is time for a breather the orderbook is very healthy but China will order and build more 24

25 Container (stuffed with General Cargo)

26 The container cargo growth will be higher going forward chemicals and forest products growing most. Containerisation rate to go from 65% to 70% 26

27 Global container throughput increased by 1.3% in 2016 preliminary the total is 700M teu 27

28 The container trade in the main systems grew by 3.6% in 2016, most in trade with Asia 28

29 A third of the port volumes are handled in China, 215M teu 29

30 Idle container ships mount, now also large & young ships, still small part of the fleet though, but increasing 30

31 Fleet growth to be a solid 6.3% yearly in the beginning of the period containerisation bound to continue 31

32 Summary & Conclusions

33 The total global fleet will grow by 3.7% in cagr over the next five years higher in the beginning. In number of ships, growth is 0.7%. 33

34 Conclusions What main themes will we see? Key Findings: Shale gas & Tight oil Demand growth positive; Supply growth high; Financial pressure on owners and operators Mergers & acquisitions; Trump and Brexit are normal turbulences ; New ships will be ordered; Scale of economy (low cost) continues to be high on the agenda; Comments: Affects tankers and also containers. And the global balance of power container better than dry and liquid bulk lower than previous but larger than demand, product carriers and dry bulk better balance will affect their buying behaviour especially in container & niche tanker markets but more important for some driven by fuel economy, regulations (SOx, BWT, NOx), attractive prices especially in dry bulk, container, product- and chemical tankers 34

35 Thank you! Niklas Bengtsson Director maritime-insight Lloyd s List Intelligence niklas.bengtsson@lloydslistintelligence.com