How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin?

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1 Water International ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin? Zeray Yihdego, Alistair Rieu-Clarke & Ana Elisa Cascão To cite this article: Zeray Yihdego, Alistair Rieu-Clarke & Ana Elisa Cascão (2016) How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin?, Water International, 41:4, , DOI: / To link to this article: Published online: 20 Jul Submit your article to this journal Article views: 4376 View Crossmark data Citing articles: 5 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

2 WATER INTERNATIONAL, 2016 VOL. 41, NO. 4, EDITORIAL How has the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam changed the legal, political, economic and scientific dynamics in the Nile Basin? Zeray Yihdego a, Alistair Rieu-Clarke b and Ana Elisa Cascão c a School of Law, University of Aberdeen, UK; b Centre for Water Law, Policy and Science, University of Dundee, UK; c International Centre for Water Cooperation, Stockholm, Sweden ABSTRACT This issue articulates the opportunities and challenges surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) through multiple disciplinary lenses: its possibilities as a basis for a new era of cooperation in the eastern Nile basin; its regional and global implications; its benefits and possible drawbacks; the benefits of cooperation and coordination in dam filling; and the need for participatory and transparent decision making. KEYWORDS Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD); Nile; international watercourses law; hydro-politics; GERD filling; GERD benefit-sharing Introduction This issue of Water International contains the first collection of articles exclusively devoted to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It is the multidisciplinary product of an international consortium of academics and practitioners, growing out of a special session at the 25th World Water Congress of the International Water Resources Association, in Edinburgh, May Many of these articles were first presented at that session, with additional contributions coming from leading experts on Nile issues. In the issue and even in some single articles, the contributors are diverse in their backgrounds, disciplines and expertise, as well as their perspectives and conclusions. We also hope that the contributions presented in this forum will spark further debate and research and policy work on the benefits, risks, strengths and, especially, cooperative opportunities associated with GERD. With completion expected in 2017, it is relevant and timely to explore GERD s regional significance to the Nile Basin generally and more specifically to the Eastern Nile sub-system, which encompasses the Abay/Blue Nile, Tekeze-Setit-Atabara, Baro- Akobo-Sobat and the main Nile (ENTRO, 2016). The need for Ethiopia, Egypt and the Sudans to reconcile their existing and potential interests with respect to Nile water resources in an equitable and sustainable manner is evident, yet challenging, especially given their growing populations, already estimated to include 80.4 million Egyptians, 31.5 million Sudanese, 34.9 million Ethiopians and 9.5 million South Sudanese within the basin (NBI, 2012). CONTACT Zeray Yihdego Zeray.yihdego@abdn.ac.uk 2016 International Water Resources Association

3 504 Z. YIHDEGO ET AL. A further challenge is the high level of poverty, especially in Ethiopia and the Sudans (NBI, 2012). Alleviating poverty in these countries, especially through improved food security, is intricately linked to ensuring sustainable access to the waters of the Nile. Yet, especially in Ethiopia, any development in irrigation to help address the pervasive undernourishment will have to be reconciled with potentially competing interests such as hydropower, and the irrigation needs of downstream states. Rural populations in both Ethiopia and Sudan have extremely low levels of access to renewable energy (2% and 7%, respectively). Yet hydropower potential is high in both countries, in particular in the Ethiopian highlands. The installed capacity in both Ethiopia and Sudan is well below the potential. At the same time, there is also significant growth potential in intrabasin power trade, between these three countries and beyond the Eastern Nile subsystem. Addressing these challenges demands a regional approach. Intergovernmental platforms, such as the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, seek to advance regional approaches to tackling these challenges. However, population growth, development imperatives and the slow pace of cooperative efforts are placing more and more pressure on governments to move ahead with projects, even if they are mainly national in nature. As originally conceived, GERD is one such example although it is certainly not the first project of its kind in the Nile Basin. An assessment of both the Blue and White Nile Basins demonstrates that Egypt, Sudan and Uganda have all developed large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly over the last two decades. GERD, however, is arguably the most significant, given its size, its location and its influence on transboundary relations between the three key basin countries. GERD offers both an opportunity and a challenge. As an opportunity GERD has the potential to foster cooperation by offering regional socio-economic benefits through the coordination and management of hydraulic infrastructure in the basin for an improved water regulatory regime. These improvements in turn may greatly assist in addressing the uncertainties that climate change will bring to the basin. Coordination over the operation of GERD may also prove to be a catalyst for additional benefits beyond water, such as a greater integration of markets and trade (Sadoff & Grey, 2002). However, a notable challenge in realizing these benefits is to ascertain and gain a broader agreement on the most appropriate legal, political and institutional arrangements to put in place among the states. Reaching that agreement has proven to be a significant challenge. In particular, downstream and upstream riparians have major differences over their entitlements to the Nile waters. While downstream Egypt and Sudan have relied upon their historical use rights, upstream countries reject such claims as contrary to the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization and participation (Salman, 2016). It is unsurprising, then, that until March 2015 the launch of GERD was a source of political tension between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt saw it as a violation of the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Nile Treaty, the 1993 Framework Cooperation instrument signed between Egypt and Ethiopia, and established principles of international water law in particular the duty to prevent significant harm and the obligation to protect the ecosystems (Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2014). Ethiopia for its part maintained its long-standing position on the invalid nature of old Nile

4 WATER INTERNATIONAL 505 treaties and on its right to equitable use of Nile waters, to which it contributes the largest share. Ethiopia has further argued that GERD will bring shared socioeconomic and environmental benefits to all three riparian countries, rather than causing harm to the two downstream countries (Horn Affairs, 2014). Sudan backed the Ethiopian position, the details of which are analyzed in the articles of this issue. The global reaction to the project ranged from opposing the dam for environmental and governance concerns (International Rivers, 2014) to explicitly backing it on the grounds of socio-economic development and equity considerations (MIT, 2014). Despite the inevitable ups and downs in the negotiations, the riparian states, assisted by expert studies including an International Panel of Experts, have managed to navigate a cooperative path that seeks to reconcile their different interests (DoP, 2015; IPoE, 2013; Khartoum Document, December 2015, as referenced by Salman). The willingness of the riparian states to cooperate is reflected in the Declaration of Principles (DoP) of March 2015, which unequivocally endorsed established principles of international water law, established cooperative mechanisms, and set out an agreement as to how the benefits of the dam will be shared and any negative impacts prevented. It is of note that, although the attention of scholars is often focused on the views of and relations between Egypt and Ethiopia, the project is of great importance for all Nile riparian states. Sudan played a pivotal role in the trilateral negotiations on GERD from the very beginning, and provided official backing to the project, whilst constantly highlighting the downstream benefits of GERD (Cascão & Nicol, 2016; Salman, 2016). While notable successes with respect to the multilateral cooperation processes have therefore been achieved (see also technical cooperation under the NBI and political negotiations under the Cooperative Framework Agreement, CFA), reaching a permanent legal or institutional framework that is accepted by all co-riparians remains a key challenge (Cascão & Nicol, 2016). Overview of the issue The contributions in this issue explore GERD from a range of perspectives. In the first article, Salman explores the relevant legal instruments and the history of dams in the Nile basin. He provides a detailed account of the sequence of negotiations that led to the DoP and the December 2015 Khartoum Document, which endorsed the decision to have the French firms BRLi and Artelia conduct an impact study on GERD. Lamenting the prevalence of unilateral dam development in the Nile Basin, Salman argues that the DoP and the Karthoum Document have brought a new legal order that replaced the 1902 and 1959 Nile treaties, and that is founded upon contemporary principles of international law. Salman sees the basin-level cooperation and collective action envisaged in the DoP as the way forward for the Nile Basin. The second article, by Yihdego and Rieu-Clarke (2016), examines the fairness principle both as a framework for substantive and procedural equity and as a tool for promoting compliance with such equitable commitments, as articulated in Thomas Franck s fairness discourse. The article submits, first, that the principle of fairness is sufficiently imbedded in international water law in light of the well-established principle of equitable and reasonable utilization, and its call for distributive justice, and in the many procedural requirements, such as the duty to notify and consult, which enhance

5 506 Z. YIHDEGO ET AL. the legitimacy of any treaty regime. Second, it suggests that the way old Nile treaties came into being, and their substance, fail to satisfy the legitimacy and distributivejustice tests for a number of reasons. In contrast, the authors cautiously suggest that post-1990 Nile Basin initiatives and legal frameworks are much more aligned with Franck s notion of fairness, and are therefore more likely to be complied with. This is particularly true of the 2015 Declaration of Principles. Third, Yihdego and Rieu-Clarke maintain that a basin or regional approach to cooperation, particularly if it engaged with non-state actors at multiple levels, might help rectify imbalances in power among riparians and ensure fairness over arbitrariness in the (Eastern) Nile Basin. In the third article, Cascão and Nicol (2016) follow with a comprehensive critical assessment of GERD as both an outcome of change and a catalyst for future change. They begin with a background discussion on the cooperation process previous to the announcement of GERD, at the basin and sub-basin (Eastern Nile) levels. They stress the achievements, as well as the challenges, faced in both the technical (NBI) and political (CFA) tracks. The authors argue that GERD and related norms and processes are in part outcomes of the changes in transboundary relations that have been taking place since the mid-1990s. They envision GERD as a shaper of future cooperation in providing opportunities to enhance shared economic benefits and trade, namely in the field of energy, and as an opportunity to expand regional development and integration in the Eastern Nile Basin region. The lessons learnt from GERD are: first, cooperation in the sub-basin and basin-wide forums can coexist, but in the long term might be impeded by high transaction costs; and second, that GERD provides a strategic opportunity on many levels, including economic, political and diplomatic, to highlight the pressing need for a basin-wide transboundary water regime. In the fourth article, Tawfik (2016) questions whether the steps taken for GERD coordination imply the application of benefit sharing in the sub-basin. After defining the benefit-sharing concept as broadening the scope of benefits linked to cooperation to transcend differences over water allocations, and outlining the key factors that may facilitate or hinder sharing these benefits, he cautiously but critically examines the applicability of the concept to GERD. Tawfik finds that the dam could bring benefits to all riparians economic development for Ethiopia, more flow of water to Sudan, and evaporation reduction from the High Aswan Dam and electricity provision to Egypt and Sudan. Nonetheless, the author cautions that the GERD s downstream impacts, in particular in Egypt, will depend on dam filling and operating strategies. The DoP have made it uncertain whether significant harm includes affecting Egypt s historical share of Nile water (Nile Treaty, 1959). Given that it is a unilateral project, financed, owned and managed by one of the parties, the GERD project has not yet progressed from water sharing to benefit sharing. Tawfik suggests a number of ways to achieve this transition. In the fifth article, Zhang, Erkyihum, and Block (2016) address from the technical side the critical issues of initial dam management: characterizing the inflow and reservoir-filling strategies identified by Tawfik. The authors capture interannual and multi-decadal streamflow characteristics using wavelet analysis to model expected streamflow conditions during reservoir filling. This allows an improved understanding of likely shifts towards wetter or drier conditions during this critical phase. Simultaneously, they propose analyzing various reservoir-filling strategies and their

6 WATER INTERNATIONAL 507 impacts on upstream and downstream countries, including who bears the risks associated with natural streamflow variability. Unfortunately, to date, riparian countries have not agreed on a filling strategy. Ethiopia has an incentive to fill the reservoir rapidly (to begin generating hydropower), while downstream countries favour slower filling rates (to minimize impacts). Three strategies for filling GERD are considered: impounding a predefined fraction of streamflow each month (e.g. 10% or 25%); impounding streamflow only when conditions are wetter than average; and filling within a predefined number of years (e.g. 4, 6 or 8). To compare outcomes, simulations of expected streamflow were generated using wavelet analysis and subjected to each of the filling strategies. The 4-year filling strategy results in the most rapid filling, but it is likely to sharply reduce streamflow to Sudan and Egypt over that period. Conversely, the 10% strategy requires on average more than 10 years to fill, limiting hydropowergenerating ability. The 25%, 6-year and 8-year strategies appear to be compromise solutions, with filling and hydropower generation occurring at moderate rates. Yet all three strategies still have uncertain outcomes, given climate variability. The authors call for closer cooperation and coordination among the three major riparian countries, not only regarding reservoir filling, but also with respect to long-term management for purposes of fostering development and regional integration. In the sixth article, Wheeler et al. (2016) apply another technical approach, a river basin planning model, to analyze potential coordination and adaptation strategies among the dams of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt during the initial filling of the GERD reservoir. The authors show that an agreement can incorporate varying degrees of cooperation, including fixed annual releases from GERD and/or adaptive releases that respond to downstream conditions. They analyze each potential filling policy under a wide range of historical hydrologic conditions and initial conditions of the High Aswan Dam. The main findings of the article include, first, that the time required to fill GERD is highly dependent on the inflow and the agreed annual release. Second, the downstream effects of filling GERD depend on both the agreed annual release and the storage in Lake Nasser at the time when filling begins. While the probability of reductions to Egypt s water availability ranges widely, downstream concerns can be substantially reduced by considering an annual agreed release of 35 BCM or greater throughout the filling period, assuming that there is no change in the current High Aswan Dam elevation. Major consumptive uses in Sudan can be maintained by maximizing the storage of the reservoirs throughout this period. Third, risks of unplanned shortages can be significantly reduced during the filling phase of GERD with a collaborative safeguard policy that allows additional releases from GERD under critical circumstances for the High Aswan Dam. Finally, a hydro-policy modelling framework that combines technical and policy considerations is necessary to provide analytical capabilities to the three principal countries so that they may choose an appropriate solution. In the final article in the present collection, Nanni (2016) deals with the effort by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to adopt a regional protocol and water policy which will be implemented in eight countries of the region. Apart from Somalia and Djibouti, the remaining IGAD member countries, including Sudan and Ethiopia, are Nile Basin states. Egypt is not a member of IGAD, and IGAD s initiatives are not meant to duplicate regional Nile initiatives. The article enlightens the reader with three important points. First, the regional water policy and the 2012 Draft Protocol

7 508 Z. YIHDEGO ET AL. on rivers and aquifers are based upon modern rules of international water law, including the principle of equitable use and participation, the duty to prevent significant harm and the obligation to protect ecosystems. This implies that the IGAD water initiatives have been influenced by the NBI, the CFA and the UN Watercourses Convention, and attests to norm diffusion across multiple levels of law making. Second, the IGAD process and other Nile initiatives complement each other in a number of ways. For example, the two signatories to the DoP, Sudan and Ethiopia, are IGAD members, and other IGAD members have signed up to the CFA. Finally, these endeavours, which are designed not only to regulate each river basin and aquifer in the IGAD region but also to harmonize the water laws and policies of member states, can encourage other IGAD states to become signatories to the CFA, enabling its entry into force. Perspectives The insights from each of these diverse articles are too rich to cover comprehensively here. We focus on five themes on the potential of GERD to promote cooperation. First, it appears that GERD has brought a new era of cooperation in the (Eastern) Nile Basin; the different phrases used by contributors, e.g. new legal order by Salman, a game changer by Tawfik and by Cascão and Nicol, and a fair system by Yihdego and Rieu-Clarke, make this point abundantly clear. The negotiating process and the deal struck between the three principal countries is fundamentally different from the regime that existed before. This may, however, be challenged from two angles. One is that the new deal has neither expressly rejected nor endorsed the rules of the old Nile regime. Hence, as Tawfik shows, Egypt remains concerned that the DoP does not guarantee the historic share of downstream countries. Against this, Salman, and Yihdego and Rieu-Clarke, see the new system of cooperation as a fresh beginning which arguably rejects perceived entitlements based upon old treaties. The other angle is that GERD dynamics are not only an outcome of post-2011 negotiations, they can also be traced back to the multilateral basin-wide initiatives that resulted in the NBI and the CFA (Cascão & Nicol). However, the deadlock of cooperation between downstream and upstream countries may well have been broken by GERD, which arguably does make post-gerd developments a major breakthrough in the hydropolitical relations of the Nile (Salman). Second, GERD s global and regional implications should not be understated. Globally, the signing of the DoP, which relates to a complex sub-basin and coincidentally followed the entry into force of the UN Watercourses Convention, evidences the interrelationship between global and regional developments. Regionally, as the principles adopted in the DoP are consistent with the CFA, as well as the UN Watercourses Convention, the three countries may well be encouraged, depending on many national and regional factors, to elevate or restart their cooperation at the basin level. This was seen by Salman and by Yihdego and Rieu-Clarke as a particularly appropriate remedy to the practice of unilateralism in the Nile Basin. Other Nile countries have also been, and would likely be, encouraged to sign and ratify the CFA, or consider joining the UN Watercourses Convention. Now, also with the opening of the UN Economic Commission for Europe s Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes and a commitment under the Sustainable

8 WATER INTERNATIONAL 509 Development Goals related to integrated water resources management at the transboundary level, further opportunities are available to capitalize on the synergies between, and momentum behind, these global and basin-level processes. Moreover, this issue demonstrates that states also promote their interests across regional cooperative platforms based upon established norms and processes. As highlighted by Nanni and by Cascão and Nicol, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are participating in GERD, IGAD and NBI cooperation processes. As with the synergies between global and basin-level processes, these regional efforts offer opportunities to foster the crossfertilization of established norms across a range of different cooperative frameworks, and also offer different venues by which to develop a shared understanding of the key legal rules and principles. Third, the recognition of GERD as a beneficial undertaking for energy production and trade, sustainable utilization of the water resources, potential socio-economic benefits and so forth is worth stressing. The easing of tension and promotion of coordination, as Tawfik puts it, and the emerging trade, investment and energysharing practices in the sub-basin and beyond, might be important positive steps towards wider benefit sharing amongst neighbouring riparians and expansion of the regional integration process. However, as stated by Wheeler et al. and Zhang et al., concerns over environmental and other downstream impacts of the dam do remain. The endeavours of the parties to address their concerns through national, regional and international expert studies is a positive step. Yet, due to GERD s unilateral nature, including being financed and run by one riparian, and the many concerns relating to downstream hydropower and other water uses, GERD s benefit-sharing outcome is certainly not guaranteed (Tawfik). The opportunity for such a benefitsharing scheme was missed when the two downstream countries ignored the early Ethiopian proposal of such joint ownership (Salman). However, if the parties tackle several challenges to address the incentives and concerns of all the countries involved, depending on managing the issues surrounding the filling and operation of the dam and building upon already existing joint initiatives such as the NBI, GERD should lead to further cooperation and integration in the Nile basin (Zhang et al.). Fourth, in the short and medium terms, one of the most important issues pertains to the filling of the GERD reservoir. Decisions taken in that regard are extremely important to an understanding of how GERD might actually influence a new and fair legal order or constitute a game-changer. The two technical articles by Zhang et al. and Wheeler et al. provide firm, but not the only, solutions to the question of filling, with the former providing a more GERD-focused solution, and the latter also accounting for potential downstream responses. Both articles emphasize that a negotiated compromise needs to be established to minimize harm to Sudan and Egypt during filling without compromising on a reasonable and timely filling for best utilization of GERD. While the two technical articles do not deal with post-filling operation of the dam, Zhang et al. reiterate that a coordinated and mutually beneficial dam operational management scheme is key to effective cooperation and integration in the basin. In this regard, the two articles resonate well with the findings of the International, Non-partisan Eastern Nile Working Group (MIT, 2014).

9 510 Z. YIHDEGO ET AL. Finally, most of these articles emphasize the need for transparent and participatory decision making at project, national and trilateral levels. Future negotiations and cooperation that are crucial to turn the terms of the DoP and the Khartoum Document into reality should respond to these demands. Legitimate stakeholders, including concerned riparians (Wheeler et al.), IGAD-like institutions (Nanni), scholars, civil society organizations and citizens (Yihdego & Rieu-Clarke; Tawfik), must have a fair say in both the substance and processes of sharing and protecting (Blue) Nile waters. In sum, this issue explores the opportunities and challenges surrounding GERD through multiple lenses. The results and suggestions offered by the 19 experts, with their wealth of experience, make a unique and all-rounded contribution to knowledge relating to the Nile Basin and beyond. It is our hope, furthermore, that the perspectives set forth in this issue will inform policy both in the immediate term, with respect to the ongoing talks and studies related to GERD, and in the longerterm efforts desperately needed to foster basin-wide cooperation, integration and prosperity throughout the region. To respond to the question posed in the title How has GERD changed the dynamics in the Nile Basin? it has done so in many ways, and promises more significant change in the future. If the riparian states can take full advantage of the opportunities provided for all by the dam project, all will benefit. References Cascão, A. E., & Nicol, A. (2016). GERD: New norms of cooperation in the Nile Basin? Water International, 41(4), doi: / DoP. (2015, March 25). Declaration of principles between The Arab Republic of Egypt, the FederalDemocraticRepublicofEthiopiaandtheRepublicoftheSudanontheGrand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP). Horn Affairs. Retrieved May 20, 2016, from Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2014). Egypt s perspective towards the Ethiopian grand renaissance dam project (GERDP). Retrieved May 21, 2016, from English/EgyptianForeignPolicy/Pages/renaissance_dam.aspx ENTRO (Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office). Retrieved June 21, 2016, from tal.nilebasin.org/pages/easternnile.aspx Horn Affairs. (2014, March 30). Ethiopia snubs Egyptian perspective as falsification and populist. Retrieved June 1, 2016, from International Panel of Experts (IPoE). (2013, May 31). Final report on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project (GERDP), Retrieved June 1, 2016, from vers.org/files/attached-files/international_panel_of_experts_for_ethiopian_renaissance_dam-_ final_report_1.pdf International Rivers. (2014). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam fact sheet. Retrieved June 1, 2016, from MIT. (2014). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An opportunity for collaboration and shared benefits in the Eastern Nile Basin. Retrieved June 1, 2016, from sites/default/files/documents/gerd_2014_full_report.pdf Nanni, M. (2016). Water challenges in the IGAD region: Towards new legal frameworks for cooperation. Water International, 41(4), doi: /

10 WATER INTERNATIONAL 511 NBI. (2012). State of the river Nile report. Retrieved June 1, from system/files/nile%20sob%20report%20chapter%204%20-%20population.pdf Nile Treaty. (1959). Agreement between the Republic of the Sudan and the United Arab Republic for the full utilisation of the Nile waters, Cairo, 8 November 1959 (entered into force 12 December 1959). Treaty Series, XCIII, 43. Sadoff, C., & Grey, D. (2002). Beyond the river: The benefits of cooperation on international rivers. Water Policy, 4, doi: /s (02) Salman, S. M. A. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: The road to the declaration of principles and the Khartoum document. Water International, 41(4), doi: / Tawfik, R. (2016). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A benefit-sharing project in the Eastern Nile? Water International, 41(4), doi: / Wheeler, K. G., Basheer, M., Mekonnen, Z. T., Eltoum, S. O., Mersha, A., Abdo, G. M., Dadson, S. J. (2016). Cooperative filling approaches for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Water International, 41(4), doi: / Yihdego, Z., & Rieu-Clarke, A. (2016). An exploration of fairness in international law through the Blue Nile and GERD. Water International, 41(4), doi: / Zhang, Y., Erkyihum, S. T., & Block, P. (2016). Filling the GERD: Evaluating hydroclimatic variability and impoundment strategies for Blue Nile riparian countries. Water International, 41(4), doi: /