Net Global Warming Could be Caused by Something Besides Greenhouse Gas; Soot? Dr. Tom May 29 November 2018

Transcription

1 Net Global Warming Could be Caused by Something Besides Greenhouse Gas; Soot? Dr. Tom May 29 November 2018

2 Dr. Tom May Resume Education PhD: Physics, Mathematics- University of Minnesota, 1968 MS: Physics, Mathematics- University of Minnesota, 1961 Bachelor of Physics (with distinction): University of Minnesota, 1959 Aerospace Industry Millennium Space (Consultant) Spectrum Astro/General Dynamics/Orbital Sciences (Chief Scientist) TRW Electromagnetics Application Center (Chief Engineer) USAF Space Division (Lt Col) IR surveillance Air Force Weapons laboratory (Major) Plasma Physics Air Force Technical Applications Center (Captain) Satellite Data Analysis University of Minnesota (Capt) Graduate Student, Gamma Ray Astronomy Air Force Technical Applications Center (lieutenant) Radiochemistry University of Minnesota Research Associate (Cosmic Ray Research) Research Assistant (laboratory technician)

3 MOTIVATION RADIATION TRANSPORT ANALYIS FUTURE PLANS (Update and extend earlier work) WHY CHINESE SOOT HYPOTHESE SUMMARY

4 The Miskolczi-principle The greenhouse effect is not a free variable. Earth type planetary atmospheres, having partial cloud cover and sufficient water vapor reservoirs, maintain an energetically maximized (constant, saturated ) greenhouse effect that cannot be increased by emissions. The following presentation serves the proof of the above statements. 2

5 The Saturated Greenhouse effect principle of Dr. Ference Miskolczi Presented by Miklos Zagoni Greenhouse-Effect of Ference Miskolczi 85 viewgraph pages summarizing Miskolczi s publications High Resolution Atmospheric Radiative Transfer LBL Code (Miskolczi et al., 1989) Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Society 2001,2004 and 2007

6 2/(1 + τ A + exp(-τ A)) =3/5+2exp(-τ A)/5, which gives for τ Aas general solution: Observation (HARTCODE computation on TIGR, 2004): τ A= Theoretical derivation (Eqs 8-28, 2007): τ A=

7 Interpretation (cont.): If the system energetically could increase its surface temperature, it need not wait for our anthropogenic CO2 emissions, since another GHG, water vapor, is available in a practically infinite reservoir, in the surface of the oceans. Energetic constraints can compensate the increasing CO2-amount in the air for example by removing water vapor, rearranging its spatial distribution, or by modifying the amount (~62%) and/or the average height (~2 km) of the partial cloud cover.

8 NOAA Reanalysis Project

9 MOTIVATION RADIATION TRANSPORT ANALYIS FUTURE PLANS (Update and extend earlier work) WHY CHINESE SOOT HYPOTHESE SUMMARY

10 Radiation Transport Analysis Used Available Models that are Based on Measured Data Used MODTRAN 1 radiation transport code Used default models of temperature and pressure profiles for northern hemisphere Tropical Mid latitude summer Mid latitude winter Sub artic summer Sub artic winter Varied selected green house gases from (28 Years)» Water va Water vapor Carbon dioxide Ozone Nitrous oxide Methane All other input data left constant at default Water va Aerosols (Navy Maritime) CFCs Carbon monoxide 1. Owned by USAF, Developed and Maintained by Spectral Sciences Inc.. Berk, P. Conforti, R. Kennett, T. Perkins, F. Hawes, and J. van den Bosch, "MODTRAN6: a major upgrade of the MODTRAN radiative transfer code," Proc. SPIE 9088, Algorithms and Technologies for Multispectral, Hyperspectral, and Ultraspectral Imagery XX, 90880H (June 13, 2014); doi: /

11 Input Data Species Time history Altitude profile Latitude 1000mb >H 2 O < 300mb 30mb> H 2 O > 100mb NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project 1 NOAA/ SWOOSH data set 2 CO 2 NOAA Monaloa yearly Ave code profile not varied O 3 Dobson spectrophotometer 1 code profile Barrow, Hanford, Muana Loa N 2 O NOAA Monaloa yearly Ave code profile not varied CH 4 NOAA Monaloa yearly Ave code profile not varied SWOOSH and Reanalysis Project data separated by up to 20 standard deviations at 316 and 300 mb respectively SWOOSH user instructions recommended caution outside of 1-100mb range Interpolated using default profile corrected by linear pressure dependent function defined by 100 mb SWOOSH data and 300 mb Reanalysis project data. 1.Kalnay E.and coauthors 1996The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 40 year project Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc Data at 2. Davis, S. M., Rosenlof, K. H., Hassler, B., Hurst, D. F., Read, W. G., Vömel, H., Selkirk, H., Fujiwara, M., and Damadeo, R.: The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: A long-term database for climate studies, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, doi: /essd , Data at

12 SUMMARY RESULTS FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE Tropical Mid Lat Sub Artic H 2 O Data Latitude Range N 20N-55N 55N-90N 1988 Average IR Flux (W/m 2 ) Gas Heating (W/m 2 ) Gas and H 2 O Heating (W/m 2 ) Relative Area Weighted Average Weighted Gas Heatng (W/m 2 ) Weighted Gas & H 2 O Heating (W/m 2 ) Approximate Increase in Tropospheric H 2 0 (%) Possible Tropospheric Increased Heating (W/m 2 ) (speculative) Averaged data for Jan, Feb, June, July, Aug, Dec 2 O3 data for Muana Loa and Hanford Averaged for Dec Jan Feb June July Aug, Barrow for March June July Aug. Other gases yearly.

13 MODTRAN Detailed Results tropical w &s mid lat winter mid latitudsummer sub artic winter sub artic summer 88 gases 15 gases 15 gases gas gas & h2o zone gas 88 gases 15 gases 15 gases warmin gas gas & h2o 88 gases 15 gases 15 gases warmin gas & h2o zone 88 gases 15 gases gas 15 gases warmin gas & h2o 88 gases 15 gases 15 gases gas gas & h2o zone 88 h20 88 h20 15 h20 warming warming ave 88 h20 88 h20 15 h20 g warming 88 h20 88 h20 15 h20 g warming ave 88 h20 88h20 15 h20 g warming 88 h20 88 h20 15 h20 warming warming ave no clouds cumulus altostratus stratus stratocumulus nimbostratus cirrus cirrus-thin cloud ave rain-drizzle rain-light rain-moderate rain-heavy rain-extreme rain ave net clouds & no clouds area weighted ave sum gas+h sum gas

14 Radiance at main CO2 absorption dip reverses and starts increasing at tropopause even though absorption cross section continues to increase because the effective radiation zone and temperature begin to increase with altitude This effect partially mitigates CO 2 warming as seen in difference spectrum. The integral of the difference spectrum in this region is 0.29 W/m 2 out of 0.55 W/m 2 for the entire spectral difference. CO2 Absorption Spectra

15 Example H2O Data Input 1988 Mid Latitude North Summer H2O Profile H20 (ppmv) Atmospheric Pressure (mb) Reanalysis Project Data Interpolated Input Values SWOOSH Normalized Code SW00SH Data

16 Example of Ratio of 2015/1988 H2O Input Data 1.5 Ratio of 2015/1988 H 2 O Values Mid Latitude North Summer SWOOSH Data Reanalysis Data Ratio of Input H20 values H 2 O Ratio Atmospheric Pressure (mb)

17 MODTRAN Main Screen

18 MOTIVATION RADIATION TRANSPORT ANALYIS FUTURE PLANS (Update and extend earlier work) WHY CHINESE SOOT HYPOTHESE SUMMARY

19 Four Decade Temperature Anomaly Greenhouse gases are unable to produce measured warming. For small changes:!" =!% where F is IR flux; solar flux and cloud cover constant " &% For northern hemisphere dt =.007 /decade versus 0.14 /decade For sub-artic dt =.07 /decade versus something larger

20 Northern and Southern Hemisphere Average Temperature Anomalies Data from: - NOAA satellite MSU & AMSU Instruments - Presented on internet by Remote Sensing Systems Northern hemisphere 0 to 82.5 N latitude - Southern hemisphere 0 to 70 S latitude Results are: - Northern hemisphere warming 0.21C/decade - Southern hemisphere warming 0.076C/decade - Northern hemisphere warming 2.76 times southern hemisphere warming Similar data presented by University of Alabama Huntsville show similar trends Northern hemisphere warming 0.19C/decade - Southern hemisphere warming 0.07C/decade - Northern Hemisphere warming 2.7 times southern hemisphere warming Temperature Anomaly (C) Temperature Anomoly (C) Southern Hemisphere (Jan 1979-Dec 2007) y = x Months Northern Hemisphere (Jan 1979-Dec 2007) y = x Months

21 Northern and Southern Hemisphere Carbon Dioxide Content Data from ORNL s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Average CO2 difference between northern and southern hemispheres about 2½ PPMV (0.6%) How can 0.6% difference in driving function produce >200 % difference in warming between northern and southern hemispheres? PPMV PPMV Barrow CO2 Measurements Months y = x Barrow Linear (Barrow) American Samoa CO2 Measurements Months y = x American Samoa Linear (American Samoa) PPMV PPMV Mauna Loa CO2 Measurements Months y = x South Pole CO2 Measurements Months y = x Mauna Loa Linear (Mauna Loa) South Pole Linear (South Pole)

22 Temperature Anomaly Data Analysis Performed 11 year running average on all input data and least square analyzed temperature data against 3 driving function data sets; - Sunspot number accelerated 16 years for for best fit (minimum R 2 values of 0.99 for northern hemisphere and 0.94 for southern) -- Data from NASA Marshal Space Fight Center - Carbon usage data accelerated 16 years --Data from ORNLs CO2 Information Center - Mount Pinatubo model accelerated 1 year for minimum R 2 value Results shown in graphs and table below - Components of Fit temperature in graphs obtained by multiplying input driving function data by their respective least squares analyzed constants below - Solar effect small but equal in both hemispheres -- Same input data and same constants - Carbon usage effect 10x higher in north --Same constant but input data slope 10x higher - Mt Pinatubo reduced temperatures more in south than north DRIVING FUNCTION VALUE Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere Sun Spot Number ± 24% ± 24% Carbon Use ± 9% ± 59% Volcano Aerosols ± 46% ± 13% Temperature Variation Southern Hemisphere Measured (11 year running average & Fit Temperature Variations with Sun Spot Number, Carbon Use & Mt Pinotubo Model Components Year Northern Hemisphere Measured (11 year running average) & Fit Temperature Variations with Sun Spot Number, Carbon Use & Mt Pinotubo Model Components Temperature Variation Year Measured Temperature Variation Fit Temperature Variation Sun Spot Number Temperature Variation Carbon Use Temperature Variation Mt Pinatubo Aerosol Model Temperature Variation Measured Temperature Variation Fit Temperature Variation Sun Spot Number Temperature Variation Carbon Use Temperature Variation Mt Pinatubo Aerosol Model Temperature Variation

23 MOTIVATION RADIATION TRANSPORT ANALYIS FUTURE PLANS (Update and extend earlier work) WHY CHINESE SOOT HYPOTHESE SUMMARY

24 Coal and Forest Fire Soot Contributors China has been using as much coal as the rest of the world combined and is at a high latitude1. Chinese Coal is almost entirely lignite and other bituminous coals with far more than normal Al2O3 fiber that makes design and use of electrostatic precipitators difficult2,3. About ½ of Chinese coal use is for electricity production and ½ for other uses including industry(16%) and heating (14%). (2007 data)2. Picture shows Greenland Ice cap in spring (year unknown between 2009 and 2014).4 Ice tests have shown Greenland icepack melted in 1889 and 2012 due to large forest fires and warmer weather5, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China 3. Lillieblad, Lena st al, Electrostatic Precipitator Performance with Chinese Coals, ICESPX Australial 2006, paper 3a2 4, news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/06/ connectingdots-dust-soot-snow-ice-climate-change-dim 5.phys.org/news/ climate-forest-drove-widespreadsurface.html 6.

25 The Good News China is making concerted effort to reduce its incredible local pollution and its CO 2 footprint 1. 90% of China s coal fueled electrical power plants use electrostatic precipitators, (2003 statement) 2. China has started using advanced technologies such as coal gasification and supercritical burn to improve efficiency and reduce local pollution 1. Chinas initial anti-smog campaign caused a natural gas crisis and a switch from dispersed coal to clean coal 3. Example: After natural gas shortage disaster, a Beijing modern power plant was taken out of mothballs and restarted, enabling use of limited natural gas to replace non pollution controlled coal burners. China has a very very long way to go and is not motivated to reduce snow field soot Lillieblad, Lena et al, Electrostatic Precipitator Performance with Chinese Coals, ICESPX Australia 2006, paper 3a2 3. Xizhou Zhou, How China s anti-smog campaign triggered a natural gas crisis and a switch to clean coal, Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2018

26 MOTIVATION RADIATION TRANSPORT ANALYIS FUTURE PLANS (Update and extend earlier work) WHY CHINESE SOOT HYPOTHESE SUMMARY

27 Summary and Conclusions Two Independent data sets show little or no anthropogenic net greenhouse gas effects Satellite measurements and analysis of Tropospheric temperature anomaly Radiation transport analysis with realistic changes in greenhouse gases including H 2 0 These results support Miskolczi s Saturation Effect Principle. Radiation transport model shows latitude effect Zagoni s web presentation on Miscolczi s work does not show nor rule out a latitude effect Effects of increased tropospheric water vapor may reduce latitude effect. Regret: O 3 data need seasonal effect and higher fidelity; northern O 3 hole could reduce heating. Greenhouse gases are unable to produce measured warming. No valid evidence proves existence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas effect. The greenhouse gas idea comes from multiple groups running large General Circulation Model computer codes which all show a warming trend. These are not valid proof of greenhouse gas effect because: They appear to have inadequate altitude zones for the problem The CO 2 emission zone is in the top of about 20 zones. Assumption of constant relative humidity at altitude produces doubling of anthropogenic gas warming where data model humidity cancels out at least most anthropogenic gas warming. All Solar cycle effects are not included, including Cosmic ray effect that varies cloud cover over solar cycle. The codes over-predict reality. Trying to solve the wrong problem (greenhouse gas emission) may be making the warming plus ice cap and glacier melting problems worse by not adequately addressing soot, The good news; China, the major coal user, is beginning address its heating and power plants for local pollution reduction and reduced CO 2 footprint (but not for albedo change)

28 BACKUPS

29 MODTRAN RT Options

30 MODTRAN Surfaces Screen

31 MODTRAN Spectral Options Screen

32 MODTRAN Custom Atmosphere Sub-Screen

33 MODTRAN Clouds and Aerosols Screen