Hamilton Airshed Modelling System Anthony Ciccone Ph.D., P. Eng. Janya Kelly Ph.D. & James Wilkinson Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Hamilton Environmental Industry Association Hamilton Airshed Modelling System Anthony Ciccone Ph.D., P. Eng. Janya Kelly Ph.D. & James Wilkinson Ph.D. 2 April 2015 Source:

2 Challenge: Project Objectives Unraveling the Hamilton Airshed nature and level of contribution of various local and regional background sources to air quality; geographical distribution of ambient air concentrations Solution: Develop, implement and execute an Airshed Modelling System for the City of Hamilton Process emissions from sources into ambient air concentrations Include local, regional and transboundary influences Evaluate the contribution of sources to airshed Verify modelling results with observations from local ambient monitoring June 14,

3 Project Approach: Compounds of Concern Which ambient air concentrations have the greatest impact on the health and well-being of Hamilton residents? Look at current emission sources in the area Consult with HIEA, Hamilton Health and Stakeholders Selected Compounds of Concern Nitrogen Oxides (NO 2 and NO) Chromium (VI) Ammonia Sulphur Dioxide Lead Benzene Ozone Manganese Formaldehyde Particulate Matter (TSP, PM 10, PM 2.5 ) Cadmium Chromium (III) Mercury (gaseous) Mercury (non-gaseous) Nickel Benzo[a]pyrene VOCs (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) June 14,

4 Project Approach: Capturing Hamilton Source: Success requires the following: Understanding of the region of interest and its influences A Big Computer Knowing what you are doing! Need to capture influences on a global, regional and local scale Meteorology Air Quality Need to capture the unique geography Need to capture regional and local emission sources Industrial Commercial Residential Transportation (rail, airways, marine and roads) Agricultural/biogenics June 14,

5 Approach: Overview June 14,

6 Air Quality Modelling System Meteorology (WRF) Emissions (SMOKE) Boundary Conditions Initial Conditions Air Quality/Chemical Transport Model (CMAQ) Photolysis Rates Gridded Ambient Air Quality June 14,

7 Phase I: Modelling Approach Tier I Canada/US Tier II Ontario Tier III Hamilton Region June 14, Tier Domains I CMAQ 36 km x 36 km II CMAQ 12 km x 12 km III CMAQ 4 km x 4 km IV CMAQ 1.3 x 1.3 km

8 AQMS: Nested Grids June 14,

9 AQMS: Nested Grids June 14,

10 Meteorological Modelling Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) Model v Nested km domains Modelling 2012 to produce hourly predictions for each day of the year North American Regional Reanalysis initialization data set Grid and observational nudging NCEP ADP Global Upper Air Observational Weather Data NCEP ADP Global Surface Observational Weather Data Model performance evaluation (MPE) will be conducted to determine adequacy of model predictions June 14,

11 Example Meteorological Modelling June 14,

12 Example Meteorological Modelling Temperature Precipitation June 14,

13 Example Emissions Inventory Regional sources (Tier I and II) - SMOKE Local sources (Tier III and IV) - SMOKE Area: residential, marine, railway Mobile: light/heavy duty, personal/commercial vehicles Point: minor (surface), major (height in PBL) Biogenic /Agricultural June 14, Industrial: NPRI (incl. point sources) Commercial: StatCan, Union Gas Residential: StatCan, Union Gas On-Road Mobile: MTO, Peel Region Non-Road Mobile: Hamilton Airport Agricultural/biogenic: MPAC, land cover

14 Data Sets for Tier I US Emissions 2011 National Emissions Inventory (NEI) No additional control required to account for 1 year of growth US 36-km domain only Emissions by commercial, biogenic-agricultural, industrial, on-road mobile sources, and residential, non-road mobile sources Processed using Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system Default US spatial, temporal and chemical speciation profiles Default US spatial surrogates Hourly emissions by day for representative week of each month for 2012 Mobile NOX Commercial VOC June 14,

15 Data sets for Tier II and Tier III Environment Canada NPRI Annual Emissions by Industrial Facility including stack parameters for large point sources NPI Annual emissions by province for non-road mobiles (e.g. airports, rail, marine) Great Lakes Commission (GLC) Centralized Air repository On-Line (CAROL) Emission Inventory data by county Municipality Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) Property codes and land use classifications Transport Canada and GO Trains Transportation schedules StatsCan Provincial statistics on population and energy use Union Gas Natural gas purchasing data by postal code USEPA Webfire Database temporal profiles and emission factors by SCC codes June 14,

16 Industrial Sources June 14,

17 Ontario Major Highway Traffic June 14,

18 Air Quality Modelling Model compounds of concern (e.g., PM 2.5, O 3, SO 2, NO 2, CO, VOCs, NH 3 ) Two-way nested modelling ( and possibly 1.3 km modelling) Sensitivity modelling Source group sensitivities (commercial, residential, industrial, biogenicagricultural, non-road, on-road) With and without local emissions Possibly with and without 12 km emissions Post processing: Model performance evaluation using MOE and local ambient air monitoring Analyze 24-hr & annual data Focus on trends as well as absolute values Provide breakdown on contribution of various source groups to concentrations June 14,

19 Example Results NO X /NO 2 Tier III Annual Emissions (T/a) Annual Concentrations (ppb) June 14,

20 Example Results Ozone June 14,

21 Example Results - Ozone June 14,

22 Project Team Members Team Member Anthony Ciccone, Ph.D., P.Eng., Principal Janya Kelly, Ph.D. James Wilkinson, Ph.D. Katie Armstrong, M.Sc. Jackson Mak, M.Sc. Allison Barrett, M.Sc. Saba Aghassi, M.Sc. Kevin Darmanin, C.Tech Role/Expertise Project Manager/Principal Investigator Photochemical Modelling Lead CMAQ Specialist Emissions / Modelling Lead Emissions Technical Support Modelling Technical Support Meteorology Lead Meteorology Technical Support Geographic Information System Experience in Canada (fed., prov., munic.), US/European/Asian agencies (NOAA, NASA) & international bodies (UN, WMO) 100+ papers in scientific journals (incl. peer-reviewed), reports, newsletters, conference and workshop proceedings June 14,

23 Meetings and Deliverables Meetings Monthly Conference Calls will be held with the HEIA Region Technical Authority Project update technical memos will be provided Quarterly/Semi-annual meetings with the held with the Steering Committee Project updates and presentations will be provided to the Steering Committee Deliverables: Detailed Internal Work Plan (Air Quality Modelling Plan) Interim reports on each phase Draft/Final Modelling Report Mapping and GIS files Electronic databases of data collected June 14,

24 Project Schedule June 14,

25 Questions? June 14,