Wind Energy a real source? November, 2011 Ernst Meyer, Vice President and Regional Manager DNV South East Asia &Pacific

Transcription

1 Wind Energy a real source? November, 2011 Ernst Meyer, Vice President and Regional Manager DNV South East Asia &Pacific

2 Presentation Lay-Out 1 Is Wind Energy a real energy alternative? 2 Economics Presentation Outline 3 Technology 4 Risk Slide 2

3 Presentation Lay-Out 1 Is Wind Energy a real energy alternative? 2 Economics Presentation Outline 3 Technology 4 Risk Slide 3

4 Installed Global Wind Capacity in GW Slide 4

5 Why Wind Power? Climate Change Mitigation Not enough Oil & Gas Energy Security Imminent pollution problems in China Fuel local economies. Slide 5

6 What is 200 GW? 2% of worlds electricity demand 50% of Chinas Electricity Generation 70% of India's Electricity Generation 175,000 wind turbines Slide 6

7 What is 1,000 GW? 10% of worlds electricity demand 5% of worlds energy demand 500,000 wind turbines Slide 7

8 5% in % in

9 Slide 10

10 Number of turbines USA China Germany Spania India Denmark Italy UK Canada Portugal Slide 11

11 Presentation Lay-Out 1 Is Wind Energy a real energy alternative? 2 Economics Presentation Outline 3 Technology 4 Risk Slide 12

12 The economics of a 1.5 MW wind turbine Typical electricity market price: 0.2 USD per kwh 1.5 MW = 1500 kwh 300 USD per hour BUT A wind turbine is running 20% average: 60 USD per hour/ 0.5 MUSD per year Cost is around 3.6 MUSD per MW Very low OPEX Slide 13

13 Economics Oil Well 40,000 $/hour Wind turbine 100 $/hour Singapore Taxi 50 $/hour Slide 14

14 5 Common Support Models Feed-InTariff Price premium Energy Taxes Investment Grants Green Certificates CDM Slide 15

15 Feed In Tariffs in Selected Countries EuroCents per kwh Austria Australia China Denmark Germany Japan Norway Sweden USA Slide 16

16 Manufacturing moving east United Power Siemens Gamesa Dongfang Suzlon Enercon GE Wind Goldwind Sinovel Vestas 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Slide 17

17 Manufacturing 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% EU China USA India Slide 18

18 Presentation Lay-Out 1 Is Wind Energy a real energy alternative? 2 Economics Presentation Outline 3 Technology 4 Risk Slide 19

19 The turbines get bigger Expired Mass Production Prototyping 20

20 Installed Global Wind Capacity in GW Moving Offshore 2000 Offshore Offshore Wind Onshore Slide 21

21 and they move offshore 22

22 Offshore wind What is it? + = Onshore Wind 40+ years of offshore oil & gas experience Offshore oil & gas Offshore wind Slide 23

23 Presentation Lay-Out 1 Is Wind Energy a real energy alternative? 2 Economics Presentation Outline 3 Technology 4 Risk Slide 24

24 Typical Wind Project Risks Serial Failure Energy Production Site Conditions Permitting Schedule Quality Transmission/Interconnection

25 Major Risks in Offshore Wind Farms Wind energy uncertainty Constructability Turbine technology Turbine foundations Subsea cables Grid connection Offshore access Marine conditions Regulatory regime Slide 26

26 Floating wind Japan Norway Deep water Slide 27

27 Technical Risk Mitigation Turbine Certification Project Certification Wind Resource Assessment Grid Compatibility Assessment Due Diligence Slide 28

28 5 Conclusions 10% of global electricity generation from wind by 2020 Dependent on financial support systems Turbines getting bigger and lighter to drive down unit cost per kwh EU and China moving forward USA sideways Manufacturing moving to Asia Slide 29

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