Current issues on Nuclear Policy in Japan

Transcription

1 IEEJ Mar th ASEAN+3 ENERGY SECURITY FORUM (ESF) on 29 Mar Current issues on Nuclear Policy in Japan Ichiro Kutani Manager, Global Energy Group 1, Strategy Research Unit The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

2 Impact on Energy Security Nuclear power in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate. Before the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011: 54 reactors, contributing approximately 30% of total electricity generation In 2016: the electricity generation of nuclear power was only 17TWh, approximately 2% of total power generation Trend of electricity generation in Japan with 2030 target Energy self-sufficiency rate of Japan with 2030 target (TWh) 1400 Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Others 50% % % 22% 24% % % 6% 7% 0 0% Source: IEA, World Energy Balances 2017; author calculated and added the data for 2030; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Strategic Energy Policy

3 Impact on Energy Security The loss of nuclear power has been compensated by an increase in fossil fuel imports by value and volume. Impact on trade-deficit Impact on recorded highest level of GHG emissions in 2013 The cost and volume of imported fossil fuels (billion yen) 25,000 Thermal coal Crude oil LNG (million ton) 400 Thermal coal Crude oil LNG , , , , Source: Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics of Japan; IEEJ-EDMC, EDMC Databank 2

4 Periodic Review of Strategic Energy Plan The Strategic Policy Committee started discussion on revising the current (4th) Strategic Energy Plan in August The new plan is expected to be published by summer Energy mix target in 2030 seems to be maintained. Unit: million kl oil equivalent Primary Energy Demand Unit: 100 GWh Power Generation Mix % 24% 25% Renewables Nuclear LNG Coal % 10% 19% 25% ,666 9,808 10,650 17% saving Renewables 22~24% Nuclear 20~22% LNG 27% % Oil 32% 2000 Coal 26% Oil 3% (Electricity demand) (Electricity generation) 3

5 Challenges for Nuclear Energy in Japan Three challenges to achieve 2030 target: Japan needs about GW of nuclear power in 2030 Restart of existing reactors Only 5 reactors are in operation, Some court ordered temporary injunction against operation NRA s process is slow and timeconsuming. Lifetime extension of existing reactors 3 reactors got approvals, One in process New construction? At least positive statements should be included into a new Strategic Energy Plan Other challenges (see reference slides): Decommissioning Fukushima Daiichi: gradually progressing, others: decommissioning is low priority Nuclear fuel cycle MOX plant and Reprocessing Plant: still under construction HLW siting process: Opinion exchange meetings have been held Fast reactor: JAEA applied to approve decommissioning plan of Monju to NRA. Strategic Roadmap of fast reactor developments will be published in

6 Restart of existing reactors: 40 operable reactors (as of Mar. 2018) Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Tokyo Electric Power Company Shika, Hokuriku Electric Power Company Higashidori, Tohoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Higashidori, Tokyo Electric Power Company 1 Tomari, Hokkaido Electric Power Company Ohma, Japan Power Development Company Tsuruga, The Japan Atomic Power Company Mihama, Kansai Electric Power Company 3 Onagawa, Tohoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Fukushima Daini, Tokyo Electric Power Company 3 Ohi, Kansai Electric Power Company Takahama, Kansai Electric Power Company Tokai Daini, The Japan Atomic Power Company Shimane, Chugoku Electric Power Company Hamaoka, Chubu Electric Power Company Kaminoseki, Chugoku Electric Power Company 1 2 Genkai, Kyushu Electric Power Company Sendai, Kyushu Electric Power Company Restarted Ikata, Shikoku Electric Power Company 2 3 Passed review Under review by NRA Units Total output (GW) Capacity In operation In operation Under construction Under construction MW or less 1000MW or less more than 1000MW Planning Planning Total [Permanent Shutdown] Tokai: Japan Atomic Power Company, Hamaoka Unit1&2:Chubu Electric Power Company, Fukushima Daiichi Unit1-6:Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tsuruga Unit1: Japan Atomic Power Company, Mihama Unit 1&2, Ohi Unit1&2: Kansai Electric Power Company, Shimane Unit1: Chugoku Electric Power Company, Genkai Unit1: Kyushu Electric Power Company, Ikata Unit1: Shikoku Electric Power Company 5

7 Restart of existing reactors: 1st & 2nd Group restarted/final stage for restart/lifetime extension approved 1 st Units Application to NRA Restart Duration (days) Sendai 1 7/8/2013 8/14/ Sendai 2 7/8/ /21/ Takahama 3 7/8/2013 2/1/ Takahama 4 7/8/2013 2/27/ No. of hearings Ikata 3 * 7/8/2013 8/15/2016 1, nd Units * On Dec. 2017, Hiroshima High Court ordered the temporary injunction against operation of Ikata 3. (Ikata 3 has been in the periodical inspection since Oct ) Application to NRA Permission for Changes in Reactor Installation Duration (days) No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Genkai 3, 4 7/12/2013 1/18/2017 1, (82) Ohi 3, 4 7/8/2013 5/24/2017 1, (73) KK 6, 7 9/27/ /27/2017 1, (93) 2 nd Units Application for lifetime extension Lifetime extension approved Duration (days) No. of hearings Takahama 1, 2 3/17/2015 6/20/ Mihama 3 3/17/ /16/ Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 6

8 Restart of existing reactors: 3rd Group still under review 3 rd Units Capacity (MW) Application to NRA No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Tomari /8/ (0) Shimane /25/ (2) Onagawa /27/ (59) Hamaoka /14/ (4) Tokai Daini /20/ (599) Higashidori /10/ Tomari 1, 2 579*2 7/8/ (0) Shika /12/ Hamaoka /16/ Tsuruga /5/ Other 15 reactors (total 14.3GW without applications to NRA): Time for decision making?? Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 7

9 Lifetime extension of existing reactors Lifetime extension is also a time-consuming process. Special inspection, assessment on deterioration, and long-term maintenance and management policies are needed for extension. The electric power companies can start Special inspection after 35 years of operation period, and they cannot submit the application for extension without the results of Special inspection. Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority, New Regulatory Requirements for Light-Water Nuclear Power Plants 8

10 Mapping reactors by age and capacity 1600 Capacity (MW) KK-7 KK-6 Tsuruga-2* Fukushima Daini-4 Hamaoka-5 Hamaoka-3 (applied to Genkai-3 Ohi-4 Fukushima Daini-2 restart) Shika-2* Ohi-3 Ohi-1,2 Genkai-4 Hamaoka-4 Higashidori-1* Tokai II Fukushima Daini-1 KK-4 KK-2,5 Fukushima Daini-3 KK-3 KK-1 Tomari-3 Sendai-2 Ikata-3 Sendai-1 Takahama-2** Onagawa-3 Takahama-3,4 Takahama-1** Onagawa-2 Shimane-2 Mihama-3** Shika-1* : reactors with applications to restart : reactors without applications to restart : reactors decided to be decommissioned Tomari-2 Tomari-1 Ikata-2 Ikata-1 Genkai-2 Onagawa-1 Genkai-1 Mihama-2 Shimane-1 Tsuruga-1 Mihama * Reactors claimed for on-site active faults 0 ** Takahama-1,2 and Mihama-3 are over 40 years old, have got the extension of operating period up to 60 years by NRA. (as of December2017) Operation period (year) Source: IEEJ 9

11 Conclusion Nuclear power plants in Japan has contributed to diversify generation mix and improve self-sufficiency rate energy security. However, the current level of energy self-sufficiency rate is far from 2030 target. How to achieve 2030 target? Accelerating regulatory reviewing process by NRA would be on the top priority. NRA and the power companies should establish a fifty-fifty relationship. NRA should have more reasonable regulations/reviewing process with considering economic efficiency. It is necessary to create a scheme to evaluate/monitor NRA via third parties or auditors. The Diet should enhance their interests/authority to oversight the regulator. Also, the government should show a clear and consistent nuclear energy policy towards The power companies should also continue their efforts to lower generation costs under the status quo of liberalized electricity markets. 10

12 For your reference: Decommissioning of existing reactors NRA approved the power companies decommissioning plans: April 9, 2017: Mihama-1&2, Shimane-1, Genkai-1, Tsuruga-1 / June 28, 2017: Ikata-1 However, for power companies, decommissioning is low priority compared with restart of existing reactors Also, more fundamental issues: Secure facility for spent fuel interim storage and waste disposal Understanding from Stakeholder (local governments and the regulator etc) Cost down of dismantling and treatment of wastes Source: Japan Atomic Power Company 11

13 For your reference: Reprocessing Plant Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL) has several facilities in Rokkasho: Reprocessing Plant: plans to complete the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2021 Uranium Enrichment Plant: in operation (stopped its production since FY2013) Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant: plans to complete the construction by the first half of fiscal year 2022 Vitrified Waste Storage: in operation Plant Application to NRA No. of hearings ( ): >April 2017 Reprocessing Plant 1/7/ (42) Enrichment Plant 1/7/ (7) Mox Fuel Fabrication Plant 1/7/ (38) Vitrified Waste Storage 1/7/ (19) Source: Nuclear Regulation Authority 12

14 For your reference: Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste The government published the Nationwide Map of Scientific Features for Geological Disposal in July This does not decide a disposal site, but the first step on the long road toward the decision of the site. Area with unfavorable features: Orange, Silver Orange area is the area which may damage long-term stability of geological environment. (e.g. close to volcanos Silver area is the area endowed with natural resources. (e.g. oil, gas and coal field) Area with good chance to be confirmed as having favorable characteristics: Green This area doesn t have unfavorable features (requirements). Dark green is the area favorable from the viewpoint of waste transportation. 13

15 For your reference: Final disposal of High-level radioactive waste NUMO is carrying out nationwide face-to-face dialogue with the public in areas preferable also from the viewpoint of waste transport safety, to pursue the understanding of the public. Publish Nationwide Map The map categorizes all areas in Japan into four categories based on nationwide data Nationwide/Local Face-to-face dialogs NUMO will carry out nationwide PR activities NUMO will supports dialogs and learning in each local area NUMO will enhance R&D NUMO will have discussions on community supports We are here if there will be some volunteers Three survey stages for siting based on the Act NUMO will conduct three survey/investigations at individual sites after obtaining local understanding: Literature survey If Safety is confirmed Preliminary investigations Detailed investigations Selection of a repository construction site Construc tion Bring in & bury HLW Closure of the facility 14