Drivers, trends, barriers for DHC in China

Transcription

1 Drivers, trends, barriers for DHC in China Session: Doubling DHC now! The operators perspective 9 May 2011 Gailius J. Draugelis China Energy Sector Coordinator (acting) World Bank

2 Outline Drivers and Trends Opportunities and Barriers World Bank Support Program 2

3 District Heating in China Climate Zoning for Building Thermal Designs In China Arguably, largest DH market in the world 550 million people, 43% urban building stock 329 of 663 cities w/ billion m 2, o/w 2.1 billion m 2 7-9% total coal consumption Coal dependent, polluting Last vestige of welfare state No metering, Energy use 2x Europe heat from CHP

4 Traditional Tech & Growth = Urban Forest of Smokestacks Modular construction to meet rapid demand growth Systems overwhelmed by urbanization 4

5 Negative environmental and social impacts 5

6 Driver 1: Major Carbon and Energy Intensity Reduction Effort High energy consumption High carbon content of energy use Largest total CO2 emissions Large population, low per capital CO2 Consumption to double Targets and Results Energy intensity: : 20% (19.1%); : 16% - Carbon intensity: %,; long term goal , 40-45%

7 Driver 2: Rapid and Large Scale Urbanization Large Scale Urban Population Growth 572 million in 2005 (44%) 926 million in 2025 (64%) Urban Built Area Expansion In 2006, 60% of residential and commercial building stock built after 1996 In 2030, 60% of residential and commercial building stock will be built after Source: McKinsey & Company, 2009 Construction Floor Areas of Residential and Commercial Buildings in Chinese Cities, Actual and Projected Million square meters Residential Commercial National Bureau of Statistics of China, Lang Siwei, et al, 2008, Building Sector Assessment Report to Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program

8 Driver 3: Lifestyle Changes, Quality of Life Demands China s building energy use set to grow rapidly when compared to US & Japan Electricity: <0.1 tce/person US: 1.1 & Japan: +0.6 Fuels & Heating: < 0.4 tce/person US: <1.1 & Japan: +0.7 Scenarios of Energy Demand in Residential and Commercial Buildings in Chinese Cities, Mtce Baseline Improved Enduse Efficiency Lang Siwei, et al, 2008, Building Sector Assessment Report to Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program Electricity is converted to coal equivalent using then current thermal generation efficiency. Replace distributed boilers with centralized district heaiting Promotion of CHP for heating Heat sector reforms 8

9 Opportunities

10 Reform-driven transformation Demand-driven network operation (variable flow, DSM) Network integration, using CHP base/hob peak Replacing block substations with building level substations Innovation Modern flue gas desulfurization and dust removal Fuel switch & Renewable energy, where viable Consumption-based billing, metering across heat supply chain 10

11 Challenges Cost overrides quality in many cases, imports more expensive, hard to obtain Regulated, with no autonomous price regulator locally regulated Conservative consulting industry Funding sources mostly government related, Relatively, low exposure to CEEC reform and European DH technologies & management concepts no donor support as in CEEC Quality in general Noise level Reliability Heating hours per day Satisfaction Levels With Central Heating Systems Horizon issues Service Quality Customer Service Rate of return Room Temperature 11 Satisfied Neutral Unsatisfied 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

12 World Bank / GEF Building EE, Heat Reform & District Heat Modernization Projects District Heating Changchun Benxi Dashiqiao Yingkou EDZ Huludao Gonchangling Other Beijing Urumqi Anqiu Heat Reform & Building EE Dalian* Tianjin* Tangshan* Chengde Ynchuan Urumqi* 12 National Heat 12 Regulation AAA

13 kwh/m2 kwh/m2 ltr/m2 kg / m2 Combining Energy Efficiency and Air Quality Improvements Liaoning Third Medium Cities Infrastructure Project (LMC3) - $191 m, 9 DH subprojects Baseline Emissions Reduction Target With Project (Weighted Average) PDO: Improve energy efficiency and environmental performance of district heating services Replaces hundreds of dispersed coal fired boilers with centralized, efficient district heating Technical designs compatible with heat reform TSP 0.02 TSP emissions 0.04 SO2 emissions SO2 Advanced dust and SO 2 removal technology Fuel Consumption Target Fuel consumption Electricity Reduction Target 2.7 Electricity consumption Water Use Reduction Target Make up water use 13

14 Conclusion Large potential for: Energy efficiency technologies Emission control technologies Management reform consultancy 14

15 Thank you. Drivers, trends, barriers for DHC in China Session: Doubling DHC now! The operators perspective 9 May 2011 Gailius J. Draugelis China Energy Sector Coordinator (acting) World Bank gdraugelis@worldbank.org